SO thrilled that my paper on UN Peacekeeping Operations as climate change adaptation with Patrick Hunnicutt is out in this month's issue of Environment and Security: doi.org/10.1177/2753...
William Nomikos
@wnomikos.bsky.social
peacebuilding, climate change and conflict, domestic politics and foreign policy || Assistant Professor of Political Science @UCSB || williamgnomikos.com || Previously @Yale @WashU
This is great analysis of why getting into the diplomatic weeds really matters, from @wnomikos.bsky.social.
William Nomikos@wnomikos.bsky.social · 2mo agoOn the eve of US - Iran negotiations in Switzerland, I wrote up some thoughts on why it's hard to make peace.
On the eve of US - Iran negotiations in Switzerland, I wrote up some thoughts on why it's hard to make peace.
Is Iran Winning the Peace?
Thoughts on the challenges of negotiating a peace
open.substack.com
I'm a Pacers fan who has shared the Haliburton choking meme with several friends over the last week but I feel terrible for the Knicks fans that Trump is going to Game 3. Just terrible.
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed. Here's what the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveal about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel. Read the latest from @wnomikos.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/malis-p...
Mali’s post-U.N. experiment has failed
What the April 25 attacks by rebel groups reveals about the closing window to fight extremism in the Sahel.
goodauthority.org
Well, this is why you work tirelessly for years on cultivating alliances and building support for even the tiniest military operation.
Adam Schwarz@adamjschwarz.bsky.social · 5mo agoDays after declaring total victory and boasting that no other military could match the US, Trump is now begging other countries — including China — to send warships to stop his Iran war from spiraling into catastrophe. A galactic humiliation.
As with any Trump admin policy—what is the policy goal here? Phrased another way: if the Trump objective was total and absolute region-wide chaos, would you have done anything differently? www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/u...
Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion
nytimes.com
1) Long and vague timeline for operation (Iraq originally also was supposed to last mere weeks) 2) No real end goal, off ramp, or exit strategy at all. This seems like a maximalist war aim war preventively launched at a regime willing to do anything to hold on. @nytimes.com
I think this war is an illegal disaster that will just lead to needless deaths but I really, really hope I am wrong and that the future is bright and peaceful for Iranians.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 5mo agoLarge crowds of Iranians poured into the streets of Tehran and other cities across Iran overnight, celebrating the news that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had been killed during a day of coordinated U.S. and Israeli attacks.
If the US is at war and under attack, will NATO invoke Article V? Seems pretty clear that it should be in case of war. Perhaps this explains Canada PM’s statement of support? But this is also not a legal war according to domestic or international law so what are NATO allies’ legal obligations?
In retrospect, the fact that they tried to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War was a pretty clear sign. This is not a subtle administration.
This is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here.
I thought this was great and very informative. The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...
The Maduro Regime Without Maduro
A political scientist explains how the Venezuelan President ran the country, why he was so unpopular, and, after his seizure by the Trump Administration, who might take over.
newyorker.com
I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability.
Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 7mo agoIt's not clear what Trump/Rubio are doing in Venezuela. But until they recognize that whoever leads Venezuela will have their own political and security interests, good luck with the strategy of telling Venezuela what to do. And that's before we get to all the problems with coercive diplomacy. 11/11
I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali
Christopher Clary@claryc.bsky.social · 8mo agoMali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...
Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award! The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book. 👇 Access links
New data release from the Deportation Data Project: Every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention nationwide between September 1, 2023 and October 15, 2025. deportationdata.org/news/2025-12...
Deportation Data Project
deportationdata.org
I have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.
Very clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.
Good luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear. Keep it up everyone!
Acyn@acyn.bsky.social · 9mo agoTrump getting booed at the Commanders game
Gelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance.
AAndrew Gelman et al.@statmodeling.bsky.social · 9mo ago
If Cuomo had been able to run against Mamdani head-to-head, would he have won? statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/11/06/i...
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)
Just casually dropping in people like Lina Khan as transition co-chair. I think Mamdani isn’t listening to the people who said he can’t/won’t do the things he talked about. Looks like he’ll try!
Zohran Kwame Mamdani@zohrankmamdani.bsky.social · 9mo agoThank you, New York City. Together we made history. Now let’s get to work. transition2025.com
Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)