Elizabeth N. Saunders

@profsaunders.bsky.social

Professor of Political Science, Columbia. New Book: The Insiders' Game: How Elites Make War and Peace https://press.princeton.edu/books/paperback/9780691215808/the-insiders-game

Still can’t over the fact that the president of the United States just told an entire state to pound sand after getting cyberattacked by a foreign adversary because they didn’t vote for him and it was treated like a Tuesday lol

There is no indication — based on reporting from us & others — that any proposal currently being discussed amounts to “an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.” And details related to the strait remain extremely limited. Sources only making clear it involves some sort of potential agreement with Oman.-CNN

When you are defeated in the sense of “unable to achieve your goals” but not defeated in the sense of “unable to continue military operations” then you are perpetually “headed for defeat” until you decide to end it. That’s how you get forever wars.

In Iran, the U.S.
Appears Headed for a Strategic Defeat, Allies
Fear

The issue here isn't the Reflecting Pool (which seems trivial). The issue is the President ordering his subordinates to arrest and prosecute an innocent man on completely fabricated pretences in order to cover for his own corrupt contracting deal.

AFP News Agency@en.afp.com · 4d ago

The US Justice Department dropped its case against a former Olympian accused of damaging the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool, saying the hurried renovations ordered by President Donald Trump had been botched. ➡️ u.afp.com/SrvP

Many point to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, a natural instinct and there are indeed many parallels. The US track record is appalling (as I've written abt all of them). One key difference w/ Vietnam/Afgh at least: other presidents (even Trump 1.0!) decided not to attack Iran (and Iraq's regime). 1/

Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 2w ago

Can't get numb to this: The United States is stuck in a war it started, cannot end, and may further escalate to no avail, having dismantled its diplomatic apparatus, depleted its military stockpile, and destroyed its credibility. A historic strategic mistake harming millions in many different ways.

Let me tell you, having chronicled Pentagon-style war game on attacking Iran nearly 25 yr ago, every single "surprise," "darkening turn," "narrowing option," spreading warfare," "rising casualties," "no easy exit," etc that comes drip-by-drip is EXACTLY why GHWB WJC GWB OBAMA BiDEN did NOT do this

From page full of headlines about things going to hell in Iran.

The risks of an attack on Iran were well understood for years. but now that we're in a post-attack Middle East, we're testing the worst case scenarios in real time. Still tbd how the war will affect Iran's nuclear ambitions but the odds are not great it will curtail them.

Bild

Just came across an article I wrote in 2012 warning against an Israeli attack on Iran and how a post-attack Middle East could be the worst of all outcomes, including for Israel. But Netanyahu never believed this and unfortunately neither did Trump.

Israel's Risky Option on Iran

While a nuclear-armed Iran that hasn't been attacked is dangerous, one that has been attacked may be much more likely to brandish its capabilities, to make sure it does not face an attack again, write...

rand.org

".. It is easier to shoot if you are not being shot at,” said Nicole Grajewski, an expert on the Iranian ballistic missile program .. “They are not having to scramble launchers around, so it is a much more favourable operational environment for them.” @financialtimes.com www.ft.com/content/82ac...

How Iran adapted its missile war with Trump

Recent fighting has provided conditions for Tehran’s forces to launch more precision strikes across Gulf and Jordan

ft.com

WSJ: ".. concerns in Washington about how many missiles the U.S. military has left. It can take between three and five years to make a new missile .. The White House and the Pentagon are pressing defense contractors .., but there’s only so much that can be done." www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Washington’s Very Sensitive Secret: How Many U.S. Missiles Are Left?

Plus, Darline Graham gets on-the-job training in the Senate, and more House Democrats sour on aid to Israel

wsj.com