Yolonomics
@yolonomics.life
Behavioral economics baller. Artist in a parallel world. IT consultant in a past life. 7th chords are a must. 🚖 Brussels yolonomics.substack.com
Also, clearly the entire earnings growth is indeed impressive, but when put in perspective, sales seem to be just normal, nothing out of the ordinary. And that line will go up or down depending on demand and affordability. We focus on the cool swings, not the core strength?
Gym At The Gym
ALT: Gym At The Gym
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Yolonomics@yolonomics.life · 16h agoOk, this is AI graph gathered from Factset pdf data & S&P xls. Fingers crossed all is correct. 😅 This really got me wondering on the whole earnings surprises and estimates game. Revenue (sales) is not covered as much and less "exciting". Obviously input cost, margins, tax, buybacks… do matter but…
If politicians would react on climate change, for every single fire event, the same as they would for migration… (where impact is very debatable if it's a blessing or a curse by the way!), we'd be on terror alarm 500. Stop the migration fear mongering and read Reuters. 😂
Reuters Breakingviews@breakingviews.reuters.com · 16h agoSpain’s isolation closes Europe’s migrant door www.breakingviews.com/columns/cons...
Ok, this is AI graph gathered from Factset pdf data & S&P xls. Fingers crossed all is correct. 😅 This really got me wondering on the whole earnings surprises and estimates game. Revenue (sales) is not covered as much and less "exciting". Obviously input cost, margins, tax, buybacks… do matter but…
The real message in the yen intervention @b-eichengreen.bsky.social oped here on why US-Japan action is a troubling signal for the dollar www.ft.com/content/86db...
The real message in the yen intervention
The dollar’s status as a reserve currency is not what it used to be
ft.com
So… what are you up to lately ?
Cartman & Stan: Well I'll Be Damned
ALT: Cartman & Stan: Well I'll Be Damned
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Michael Pettis@michaelpettis.bsky.social · 19h agoFinancial Times: "Beijing is stepping up efforts to attract foreigners to its sovereign debt by building out futures contracts and other bond market infrastructure." www.ft.com/content/0fe0...
Worth a moment of reflection… when national politicians jump on a single border incident like a pack of wild bears on a piece of meat to gain with populist rhetoric instead of calm policy enforcement and a framing of the incident with some decency or “values” as many like to endlessly preach about.
The Schengen suspension is pure political performance. It’s small men, and increasingly small angry women, doing their very best to try and cast a very long shadow. But the shift is real, none the less: the Overton window on immigration is different from now on. And border states more autonomous.
Closing the Tesla short… not that my conviction has changed. I think the stock is worth 30 bucks at best, but you need to be careful with retard meme stocks I guess. Gains is gains as they say.
Ahoklollmao Deal: Jesse Pinkman & Walter White
ALT: Ahoklollmao Deal: Jesse Pinkman & Walter White
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"Included in the figure, however, is Alphabet’s $98 billion of “other income,” which traces back to a $900 million investment in Elon Musk’s SpaceX more than a decade ago. The rocket-maker’s initial public offering last month imputed a $2 trillion market capitalization, forcing Alphabet…"
Big Tech’s circular AI trade grows too big to veil
SpaceX and Anthropic lose money but account for half the $280 bln rise in S&P 500 earnings this quarter. How? Paper gains at Google and Amazon from their investments in the hot startups. As massiv...
breakingviews.com
US Labor participation rate dropping to 70s level with the exception of the Covid period. What are the takes? Lots of people decided it's time to retire? 🤨 There's obviously a longer running trend, but that's quite a steep drop again lately.
Team America: Yen police ft.trib.al/RPLHEsY | opinion
Team America: Yen police
A puzzling intervention
ft.trib.al
From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - US-Japan yen team-up worsens BOJ dilemma reut.rs/45AWzqF
Breakingviews - US-Japan yen team-up worsens BOJ dilemma
The joint attempt to boost the currency is unlikely to have lasting impact: Tokyo's fiscal policy is anathema to a stronger yen. But it piles pressure on the central bank to coordinate, meaning even raising rates could undermine belief in its independence. It's a no-win scenario.
reut.rs
35° again tomorrow. Can we line up the streets with palm trees and move the sea to Brussels? Could be a vibe…
Chevy Chase sips a cocktail by the pool
ALT: Chevy Chase sips a cocktail by the pool
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If I was president this would’ve never happened.
Greta the Psychic Goose Driving Car
ALT: Greta the Psychic Goose Driving Car
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EXCLUSIVE: Japan to announce Tokyo, Washington took joint action on yen, sources say reut.rs/4fOSPqq
EXCLUSIVE: Japan to announce Tokyo, Washington took joint action on yen, sources say
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama will announce on Monday that Tokyo and Washington took joint action in the currency market to arrest the yen's slide to 40-year lows, two Japanese government officials told Reuters.
reut.rs
6months ago, Bloomberg made a mini documentary on Japan. From the 80s asset bubble (the lost decade followed) to the central bank interventions, the imported inflation energy shock and now trying to turn the page, risking backlash and still having the biggest 194.5 % government Debt/GDP.
Why Japan’s Economy Is at a Tipping Point
YouTube video by Bloomberg Originals
youtube.com
If Japan needs to start dumping its US treasuries war chest to prop up the Yen, this could get wild. If Japan's pressure valve blows, the hot steam lands right in Wall Street's face.
Reuters@reuters.com · 5d agoUS Treasury intervenes to support yen after Japan steps in, FT reports reut.rs/452E5PL
🇯🇵 Washington's first yen-buying intervention with Tokyo in more than a decade as it languishes near 40-year lows.
Nikkei Asia (Official)@asia.nikkei.com · 5d agoUS Treasury intervenes to support the yen after Japan steps in, FT reports https://asia.nikkei.com/business/markets/currencies/us-treasury-intervenes-to-support-the-yen-after-japan-steps-in-ft-reports
@doynefarmer.bsky.social also beat roulette! This story is covered in the Money Bots documentary and in his book "making sense of chaos". A great read, especially with the high use of leverage in markets right now.
Money Bots | High-Frequency Trading | Crime & Corruption
YouTube video by Moconomy
youtube.com
If I recall correctly J Doyne Farmer discovered even rational use of leverage naturally creates nonlinear feedback loops. Since there’s such a high use of leverage in current markets this might be well worth a revisit! Worth noting, he’s one of the pioneers of complexity economics.
Quantitative agent-based models: a promising alternative for macroeconomics
Abstract. Agent-based models (ABMs) are dynamic computer simulations that abandon utility maximization and instead assume that agents are boundedly rationa
academic.oup.com