Wenn Arten fliehen müssen – Vorhersagemodelle unterschätzen klimawandelbedingte Aussterberisiken When Species Are Forced to Move: Prediction Models Underestimate Climate-Related Extinction Risk www.uni-potsdam.de/de/nachricht...

Wenn Arten fliehen müssen – Vorhersagemodelle unterschätzen klimawandelbedingte Aussterberisiken

Medieninformation 10-07-2026 / Nr. 062

uni-potsdam.de

🎉 Congrats to Raya Keuth for new paper in @natecoevo.nature.com: IUCN Red List approaches can underestimate climate-related extinction risk for range shifting species, and we highlight opportunities to improve risk assessments. 🌍🌿 doi.org/10.1038/s415... #Ecology #ClimateChange #Biodiversity

Models used for Red List assessments underestimate climate-related extinction risk of range-shifting species - Nature Ecology & Evolution

Climate change is a threat to many species. Here the authors show that species’ range dynamics determine the ability of correlative and process-based models to predict extinction risk under climate ch...

doi.org

Anticipating where European bison might come into conflict with agriculture, forestry, or traffic --> new paper led by Hendrik Bluhm now out in the @jappliedecology.bsky.social 🦬🦬👉 doi.org/10.1111/1365... #Bison #Wisent #Rewilding #Megafauna #Conflict @biogeoberlin.bsky.social

The World Climate Research Programme @wcrpclimate.bsky.social has been aligning global research efforts towards policy needs since 1980. We suggest that an analogous organisation for #biodiversity science is needed in order to enable and support effective policy action.

Macroecology lab @unipotsdam@zurelllab.bsky.social · last mo.

How do we ensure a globally coordinated and sustained research agenda to address the biodiversity crisis? We think it's time to explore a World Biodiversity Research Programme - a mechanism to coordinate and better connect biodiversity research with global policy needs. doi.org/10.1038/s415...

How do we ensure a globally coordinated and sustained research agenda to address the biodiversity crisis? We think it's time to explore a World Biodiversity Research Programme - a mechanism to coordinate and better connect biodiversity research with global policy needs. doi.org/10.1038/s415...

A global research coordination programme is urgently needed for biodiversity - Nature Ecology & Evolution

Nature Ecology & Evolution - A global research coordination programme is urgently needed for biodiversity

doi.org

Back from #WBF2026 in #Davos feeling energised by discussions on how biodiversity science can better support policy and action. We had two very lively sessions organised by #EcoCode @gretabocedi.bsky.social @mark-urban.bsky.social @sjevelazco.bsky.social @geobon.org 1/n

Valén Holle gave a fantastic talk about her PhD research on changes in vector borne disease phenology at #WBF2026 Check out preprint here: doi.org/10.64898/202... @zoe-eu.bsky.social @nadjakabisch.bsky.social

Excited to be in Davos for #WBF2026! And *really* looking forward to this discussion of what to do about the lack of a biodiversity analogue of the World Climate Research Program. Please do come along and contribute - Wednesday, 12:00-13:00, in room Wisshorn! And please pass the word on 😀.

So this has happened 👇 I joined @ecography.bsky.social as Editor-in-Chief together with @cnmeynard.bsky.social and Dominique Gravel as we are transitioning to shared leadership. Feels like coming home: this is were I published first and frequently since. nso-journals.org/all-news/new...

New senior board for Ecography — NSO Journals

We are excited to share a couple of updates to the journal’s editorial structure and board. These are meant to further strengthen what Ecography already does best while ensuring both continuity and re...

nso-journals.org

The spread of non-native species is likely to be compounded by climate change and land-use. Here the authors assess the potential distribution of 9,701 naturalized non-native plant species at a 10×10km resolution & project shifts under 2 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 🧪 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The global geography of plant invasion risk under future climate and land-use changes - Nature Ecology & Evolution

The spread of non-native species is likely to be compounded by further climate change and land-use intensification. Here the authors assess the potential distribution of 9,701 naturalized non-native p...

nature.com

High‑resolution global maps revealing the expansion risk of thousands of non-native plant species under today’s conditions and future climate and land‑use scenarios have been produced for the first time. 🗺️ @natecoevo.nature.com @univie.ac.at @smartenwinter.bsky.social www.idiv.de/global-model...

1/🧵 📢New Release: #RangeShifter 3.0📢 — available for both the batch interface and #RangeShiftR. RangeShifter is a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation platform for #modelling species’ range dynamics, dispersal, and #eco-evolutionary processes across landscapes.

📄New paper: Could Netflix-style algorithms predict #plant communities? 🌿 Recommender systems can fill gaps in #CitizenScience data, capture co-occurrence at scale, and boost species predictions. 🔗 doi.org/10.1002/ecm.... @wsl-dme.bsky.social #Ecology #Biodiversity #MachineLearning #SDM

Using recommender systems to analyze and predict plant communities from partial assemblages

Safeguarding biodiversity requires a detailed understanding of the biosphere, especially regarding the distribution and state of habitats. Citizen science data offer a rich source of useful informati...

doi.org

New paper 🐦 Multi-trait syndromes explain dispersal among close relatives, but simple traits (e.g. body mass) better predict across species. A case for simpler, mechanistic ecology. doi.org/10.1038/s420... Big shout out to @gfandos.bsky.social 🎉 #Ecology #Evolution #Traits #Dispersal #Birds

Simple mechanistic traits outperform complex syndromes in predicting avian dispersal distances - Communications Biology

An analysis using European continent-wide empirical data shows that single mechanistic traits predict avian dispersal better than complex syndromes. Body mass and life history dominate median dispersa...

doi.org

Our March issue is out! www.nature.com/nrbd/volumes... Key topics: 💧Extreme events and river biodiversity (@jdtonkin.bsky.social) 🌇Urban eco-evolutionary dynamics (@kmwinchell.bsky.social) 🦋Butterflies and moths (Akito Kawahara) 📊Biodiversity model intercomparisons (@zurelllab.bsky.social) 🧪🌎

Successful first sDiv workshop "sModelProBio - Modelling the way forward for protecting biodiversity during climate change" Pushing forward biodiversity model intercomparison, with focus on process-based models at regional scales. Excited for the collaborations ahead! 🌍🌱 @idiv-research.bsky.social

Why biodiversity science needs its own model intercomparison projects 👇. Lessons from climate science, applied to biodiversity & policy. 🌍🧬 by @geobon.org #EcoCode team @mark-urban.bsky.social @gretabocedi.bsky.social @sjevelazco.bsky.social

Nature Reviews Biodiversity@natrevbiodiv.nature.com · 6mo ago

New online! Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons

New online! Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons

Biodiversity science and policy need more model intercomparisons

Nature Reviews Biodiversity, Published online: 06 February 2026; doi:10.1038/s44358-026-00134-4Climate model intercomparison projects have been essential in identifying mechanisms of human-caused climate change, but similar efforts in biodiversity science have lagged behind. This Perspective discusses existing biodiversity model intercomparison projects and identifies opportunities for their advancement in the future.

dlvr.it

Thrilled to see the first #PhD chapter by @annaroennfeldt.bsky.social published in @natcomms.nature.com. This multi-region comparison shows that lack of #niche conservatism in #non-native #plants might be transient and potentially linked to dispersal limitations. doi.org/10.1038/s414...

Amazing talk at #TIBS2026 by @katschiff.bsky.social from @zurelllab.bsky.social on the drivers of bird occupancy trends in North America. Climate change appears to be more important than land-use change, at least for the last 30years.

Without forward-looking models, biodiversity policy risks missing the road to recovery. Our new PNAS article calls for predictive tools and a World Biodiversity Research Programme to guide global action. 👉 doi.org/10.1073/pnas... #Biodiversity #Conservation #PredictiveModels #PNAS

Biodiversity policy needs to look forward, not just backward. 🌍 Our new PNAS piece argues that predictive models - like those used in climate science - are key to guiding effective conservation decisions. doi.org/10.1073/pnas... #Biodiversity #Conservation #PNAS (1/2)

Predicting the way forward for the Global Biodiversity Framework | PNAS

Predicting the way forward for the Global Biodiversity Framework

doi.org

How reliable are model-based blacklists of invasive plant species if occurrence & environmental data are limited & under different model choices? New paper by PhD researcher Valén Holle @jappliedecology.bsky.social #SDM #invasive #plants #Pacific besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

Uncertainty in blacklisting potential Pacific plant invaders using species distribution models

SDMs can provide valuable support for planning the preventive management of alien species. However, our findings show that blacklist outcomes are highly sensitive to modelling decisions. While ensemb....

besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Truly fascinating combination: the wonderful shots by @jan-haft.bsky.social beautifully accompanied by live music of "Orchester des Wandels" 🎶 - what a highlight at the #gfoe2025 Ice Breaker tonight! 🧊🥂 @gfoesoc.bsky.social

🌟 We are beyond excited to present the GFÖ 2025 Honorary Medal to Prof. Dr. Volker Grimm! 🎉 His outstanding and future-oriented research in ecological modelling has paved the way for deeper insights into how ecological systems work 🌍✨ @ufz.de www.ufz.de/index.php?de... #gfoe2025

Congratulations to Volker Grimm on receiving the @gfoesoc.bsky.social Honorary Medal for his outstanding contributions to ecology! So well deserved! #gfoe2025

Got inspired by all the fantastic research at #gfoe2025? Save the date for an even larger gathering of excellence in #ecology and #evolution at the joint #NSO2026 and #gfoe2026 meeting with @gfoesoc.bsky.social! See you on 14-17 Sep 2026 in Denmark! nordicsocietyoikos.glueup.com/event/nordic...

A truly amazing highlight of #gfoe2025 at @uni-wuerzburg.de yesterday evening: Jan Haft and members of the Orchestras of Change with their „Climate and Wilderness show“

Thanks to the organisers of #GfOe2025 for a wonderful conference! Very proud of the team for the fantastic science they presented!

🚨 New SDM-methods paper fresh out of the science oven! 🍞📊 We developed super simple data thinning methods to tackle an oversimplified and superficially addressed issue in SDMs --- environmental sampling bias! doi.org/10.1002/ecog... @zurelllab.bsky.social @bleroyecology.bsky.social 🧵(1/8)

Correcting environmental sampling bias improves transferability of species distribution models

Sampling bias is an inherent problem in widely available biodiversity data, undermining the robustness of correlative species distribution models (SDMs). To some extent, subsampling occurrence data c....

doi.org