🔴 New from ACDC 🔴 Lobbying for alleged criminals and corrupt politicians, and people under sanctions, is increasing in Washington. We dove into FARA filings by lobbyists working for natural persons, and found alarming attempts to undo anti-corruption enforcement by previous administrations.

🔴 Germany plans to heavily restrict the access to public information. Transparency International Germany warns that current plans from senior coalition leaders of the CDU, CSU and SPD – the federal government partners – will gut Germany’s Freedom of Information Act (IFG). 🧵⬇️

Amazing work by @investigacecz.bsky.social (with help of @acdatacollective.bsky.social) mapping Czech assets of Russians who are connected to the Kremlin and sanctioned companies and individuals.

investigace.cz@investigacecz.bsky.social · last mo.

Přinášíme přehlednou mapu českého majetku Rusů, kteří jsou napojeni na Kreml a sankcionované firmy i osoby. Data pocházejí od @acdatacollective.bsky.social, serveru munscanner a rupep. www.investigace.cz/mapa-majetku...

As @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu heads to #Azerbaijan, it’s worth remembering: the Aliyev regime is jailing journalists and critics. It also sought to buy influence in Europe - including through corruption scandals involving German conservative politicians, some of them from von der Leyen’s own CDU...

Sanctioned North Korean vessels are now making more foreign port calls than at any point since before the pandemic. Coal produced by slave labor is smuggled abroad, with payments made to secret accounts at Chinese banks. Don't miss this important new report by NKHR & @datadesk.bsky.social.

Thanks to Meghna Chakrabarti and the @wbur.org On Point team for having me on yesterday to talk about @acdatacollective.bsky.social's work on insider trading risks on Polymarket Another example of how access to government has become a huge source of profit... www.wbur.org/onpoint/2026...

How prediction markets have found their way into American politics

A Google engineer and member of special forces have been arrested for placing illegal bets on prediction markets. And these are just examples of the insider trading that may shape more than the countr...

wbur.org

ACDC's latest newsletter features @pogo.org Policy Associate Janice Luong on the uneven momentum towards effective regulation of prediction markets. Check out her recent op-ed urging Congress to act. "The corruption these markets pose is a cross-partisan issue." thehill.com/opinion/fina...

Prediction markets are out of control — Congress must act to ban insider trades now

Elected officials and their employees should be unequivocally clear, through binding legislation, that prediction markets cannot continue as they are and have no place in politics.

thehill.com

Two Polymarket users made thousands of $ betting on the June 2025 US strikes on Iran. Trading patterns show they were very confident in the outcome. Could they be military insiders? @papertrailmedia.de & @derstandard.at dive into data from our earlier report. acdatacollective.org/work/profiti...

Frederik Obermaier@frederikobermaier.com · 2mo ago

Profit mit dem Krieg: Mit hochriskanten Wetten auf Kriege verdienen Nutzer auf der Plattform Polymarket viel Geld. @papertrailmedia.de @derstandard.at @acdatacollective.bsky.social Recherchen zeigen Muster, die auf möglichen Insiderhandel hindeuten www.derstandard.at/story/300000...

Profit mit dem Krieg: Mit hochriskanten Wetten auf Kriege verdienen Nutzer auf der Plattform Polymarket viel Geld. @papertrailmedia.de @derstandard.at @acdatacollective.bsky.social Recherchen zeigen Muster, die auf möglichen Insiderhandel hindeuten www.derstandard.at/story/300000...

Profit mit dem Krieg: Die mysteriösen Wetten auf Polymarket

Mit hochriskanten Wetten auf Kriege verdienen Nutzer auf der Plattform Polymarket viel Geld. Recherchen zeigen Muster, die auf möglichen Insiderhandel hindeuten

derstandard.at

Why gutting the Corporate Transparency Act is a big - and very bad - deal.

Mother Jones@motherjones.com · 2mo ago

The Trump administration has taken steps to make sure that the United States is a safe space for money launderers, drug cartels, and international financial rogues.

With election markets proliferating on Polymarket, the upcoming U.S. midterms will test how platforms and the CFTC police insider trading by campaign insiders. We're pleased to have contributed analysis to this @reuters.com article by @dgillison.bsky.social. www.reuters.com/legal/govern...

Focus: US election betting boom to test prediction markets' insider trading controls

Prediction market watchdogs may struggle to police betting on the U.S. midterm elections, with thousands of races offering ever more ways for insiders to make a quick buck on a rising number of platfo...

reuters.com

How Dictators Use Corruption To Destroy Democracy (and Get Insanely Rich in the Process) @oslofreedomforum.com, tomorrow 14:15 - 15:15 Featuring: ACDC's @szakonyi.bsky.social with @ishaantharoor.bsky.social, Elsa Peraldi and Vadim Kleiner. oslofreedomforum.com/event/oslo-f...

We helped @investigacecz.bsky.social reveal that a Russian war criminal and a far-right politician have a company together in Czechia. Experts say the company's financials look similar to those used in money laundering schemes. www.investigace.cz/valecny-zloc...

Válečný zločinec v Česku spoluvlastní firmu s ruským politikem - investigace.cz

Alexey Moldavantsev podle Služby bezpečnosti Ukrajiny (SBU) vedl okupační policii v Nové Kachovce v Chersonské oblasti na jihu země, která unášela a mučila civilisty. Redakce...

investigace.cz

This NYT investigation into regulatory capture by prediction market companies is essential context to the House Oversight investigation. Rep. Comer emphasized enforcement against political insiders in his announcement. Platform content should also be reformed. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/24/u...

How Prediction Markets and Crypto Firms Steamrolled a Watchdog Agency

nytimes.com

Anti-Corruption Data Collective@acdatacollective.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Did anyone see this coming? With 52% of long shot bets on Polymarket military markets paying out, a congressional investigation can’t come soon enough. www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/k...

Did anyone see this coming? With 52% of long shot bets on Polymarket military markets paying out, a congressional investigation can’t come soon enough. www.cnbc.com/2026/05/22/k...

Oversight Chairman Comer launches congressional probe into insider trading on Kalshi, Polymarket

Congress is ramping up pressure on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket over concerns of insider trading.

cnbc.com

More opportunities for insider trading sold as innovation

Reuters@reuters.com · 3mo ago

Polymarket debuts prediction markets tied to private companies reut.rs/4dwBWzx

At Re:publica today? Stop by! Our co-founder @frederikobermaier.com will be discussing with @schwarz-alex.bsky.social how digital evidence can help bring international crimes to justice. Come say hi.

Hats off to Ireland's deputy PM for the quick response to our investigation with @irishtimes.com. www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

Polymarket betting on Dublin Central byelection to be examined by officials

Tánaiste and Minister for Finance Simon Harris wants ‘deep dive ‘into matter

irishtimes.com

Anti-Corruption Data Collective@acdatacollective.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Wash trading or money laundering? We worked with @irishtimes.com to try to make sense of the $1m bet on a Dublin byelection involving a notorious veteran criminal. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Wash trading or money laundering? We worked with @irishtimes.com to try to make sense of the $1m bet on a Dublin byelection involving a notorious veteran criminal. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Why have international traders bet $1m on the Dublin Central byelection?

Almost $500,000 alone has been wagered on Gerry Hutch’s chances of becoming a TD or not

irishtimes.com

ACDC sat down with @60minutes.bsky.social for last night's episode, explaining that military insiders accused of illegal profiteering on Polymarket are not isolated cases but part of a systemic problem. www.cbsnews.com/news/predict...

Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations

Prediction market users are profiting from bets on war. Analysts say suspiciously timed bets, and the high win rates of wagers on military outcomes , are likely signs of insider trading.

cbsnews.com

Anti-Corruption Data Collective@acdatacollective.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Great to see insider trading on military event prediction markets getting the primetime treatment from @60minutes.bsky.social. Last month we revealed that 52% of long shot bets on military outcomes on Polymarket are successful, way over the platform average. acdatacollective.org/work/insider...

The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found long-shot wagers — bets of more than $2,500 with less than 35% odds — on military outcomes won more than they lost. Researchers say it’s a telltale sign of “systemic insider-trading.” cbsn.ws/4uUJPG8

Great to see insider trading on military event prediction markets getting the primetime treatment from @60minutes.bsky.social. Last month we revealed that 52% of long shot bets on military outcomes on Polymarket are successful, way over the platform average. acdatacollective.org/work/insider...

60 Minutes@60minutes.bsky.social · 3mo ago

More than $1 billion has been wagered on prediction markets this year on military decisions and outcomes. This Sunday, 60 Minutes examines suspiciously timed bets with information that appears too specific for civilian outsiders.

Great to hear this @acdatacollective.bsky.social research into insider trading on prediction markets being mentioned by @kevinroose.com and @caseynewton.bsky.social on the Hard Fork podcast from @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/05/08/p...

Can the U.S. Rein in Prediction Markets? + Joanna Stern on Her Year of A.I. Experiments + Our Producer Goes to Attention School

nytimes.com

Anti-Corruption Data Collective@acdatacollective.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Prediction market or corruption market? We analysed Polymarket data to test whether reports of insider trading on political events are isolated cases or signs of a systemic risk. 🧵 acdatacollective.org/work/insider...

Is it a good thing for the world that people can now secretly monetize their access to classified information on the timing and success of military strikes www.ft.com/content/989d...

Long-shot bets on military action made on Polymarket have a win-rate almost four times higher than the platform average, according to new research, raising fears that wagers placed by insiders could reveal classified information. Read the full story on #FTEdit 👉 ft.trib.al/Zqokt5y

Prediction market or corruption market? We analysed Polymarket data to test whether reports of insider trading on political events are isolated cases or signs of a systemic risk. 🧵 acdatacollective.org/work/insider...

More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report @acdatacollective.bsky.social that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.

Half of ‘long shot’ Polymarket bets on military action are successful

High rate of winning wagers likely to add to concerns that sensitive information can leak on prediction markets

ft.com

Ten years after #PanamaPapers, too much hidden wealth is still hidden - and too many promises remain unkept. Leaks exposed the system. Reforms were promised. Loopholes remain. @bastianobermayer.bsky.social and me ranting about what still needs fixing 👇 www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/h...

The Deafening Silence on Offshore Wealth

Frederik Obermaier & Bastian Obermayer explain why, ten years after the publication of the Panama Papers, financial crime havens endure.

project-syndicate.org

Anonymous shell companies, hidden wealth, corrupt officials. The #PanamaPapers exposed it all. A decade later, how much has actually changed? Read our analysis here: ⬇️

Panama Papers: 10 years on, the promises and the failures - News

The Panama Papers exposed offshore corruption worldwide. A decade later, Transparency International assesses what has changed and what hasn't

transparency.org

🏘️ A data architecture built by ACDC was the starting point for a series of investigations into Nigerian PEP's U.S. real estate holdings by @pplaaf.bsky.social. 🎯 The stories keep coming, and they're making an impact.