China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma Important new analysis of China's economic and foreign policy integrated model Sophisticated political economy @piie.com by the amazing Prof @yelingtan.bsky.social Yeling Tan www.piie.com/publications...

China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma

Traditional conceptions of export- or domestic investment–led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted a model in which national secur...

piie.com

NEW in @foreignaffairs.com China Still Has What America Needs: The Trump-Xi Summit Gives Washington a Chance to Buy Time by @adamposen.bsky.social Gift Link: www.foreignaffairs.com/guest-pass/r...

Last year’s Trump-Xi summit “taught a useful lesson: no amount of bilateral trade-related threats or exclusion from the U.S. economy would give the United States an easy win over China,” writes @adamposen.bsky.social. “Washington needs time to reduce its dependence on Beijing.”

China Still Has What America Needs

The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.

foreignaffairs.com

This piece by my brilliant @piie.com colleage @adamposen.bsky.social may be the first time you have seen the United States described accurately as what its ruling regime has quickly made it: a "lesser power".

China Still Has What America Needs

The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.

foreignaffairs.com

This piece from @adamposen.bsky.social on how the US should try to use the Trump-Xi meeting to buy itself some time on derisking is smart. www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-...

China Still Has What America Needs

The Trump-Xi summit gives Washington a chance to buy time.

foreignaffairs.com

Looking forward to discussing @lugaricano.bsky.social fantastic book Messy Jobs tomorrow @piie.com with @adamposen.bsky.social I think it’s one of the best frameworks we have to think about how AI is going to affect work. (And it’s superbly written, too). Livestream: www.piie.com/events/2026/...

Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach

As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms the workplace, which jobs will remain valuable—and what makes them resistant to automation? Economist Luis Garicano, coauthor of Messy Jobs: The Work that AI...

piie.com

Live webcast 1p ET with Luis Garicano and Anna Stansbury Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach @piie.com www.piie.com/events/2026/...

Book discussion: Messy Jobs: The Work that AI Cannot Reach

As artificial intelligence (AI) transforms the workplace, which jobs will remain valuable—and what makes them resistant to automation? Economist Luis Garicano, coauthor of Messy Jobs: The Work that AI...

piie.com

Live at 9a ET streaming event! Exciting and new! The Trump-Xi summit and possible future of US-China economic relations Me with Chad Bown, Yeling Tan, Marcus Noland www.piie.com/events/2026/...

The Trump-Xi summit and possible future of US-China economic relations

As Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping prepare for their September 24 summit, what can new economic analyses tell us about the direction of US-China economic relations, as well as the likely impact...

piie.com

“The irony of the guy working for Soros and [Stanley] Druckenmiller who broke the Bank of England back in ’92 pretending that you can do FX intervention alone, and lastingly defend a currency, is just amazing.” - @adamposen.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/1be8...

Scott Bessent’s yen intervention signals new era of US ‘currency activism’

Bid to support Japan’s currency shows US is ready to scupper trades that push against its interests

ft.com

Interesting: Adam Posen Thinks Things Could Get 'Messy' for the Fed | Odd Lots www.youtube.com/watch?v=8up4... Particularly interesting is the discussion about "messy jobs" at 42:56. Think the "true" impact of AI, overestimation of the tech, etc. @kansascityfed.bsky.social @adamposen.bsky.social

Adam Posen Thinks Things Could Get 'Messy' for the Fed | Odd Lots

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts

youtube.com

New podcast! Glad to be on Odd Lots again from Jackson Hole. Thanks Joe and Tracy! We spoke about the Fed and its new Chair, US inflation, Treasuries and the US Treasury, AI impact on the macroeconomy, AI impact on economists, and what makes for dissent in central banks youtube.com/playlist?lis...

Talking with Scott Tong (5 minutes) on what the G20 and Bessent have to do with higher interrest rates, and what it means for US households @npr.org @hereandnow.bsky.social www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2...

G20 finance meeting continues amid concerns about global economy

Finance officials are meeting again on Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina, amid some major concerns about the economic impact of the Iran war.

wbur.org

China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma Important new analysis of China's economic and foreign policy integrated model Sophisticated political economy @piie.com by the amazing Prof @yelingtan.bsky.social Yeling Tan www.piie.com/publications...

China's economic security growth model and implications for the US-China security dilemma

Traditional conceptions of export- or domestic investment–led growth no longer appropriately capture the dynamics shaping the Chinese economy. Rather, China has adopted a model in which national secur...

piie.com

Corruption & insular thinking aren't just wrecking US domestic economy, they're undermining our ability to innovate, have secure, mutually profitable alliances & protect ourselves from outside threats. Rejoining the world economy after Trump will be difficult; it's leaving us behind.

Adam Posen@adamposen.bsky.social · 3mo ago

America's future in the post-American world economy How no kings ties together politics and economic dynamism for our 250th birthday. @piie.com (German language original published in @faznet.bsky.social ) www.piie.com/commentary/o...

New important analysis of why the "optimal tariff" argument fails in practice for the US right now By @kclausing.bsky.social and Obstfeld from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Advocates of President Donald Trump's tariff policies often bash economists for ignoring real-world complexities. Yet administration officials happily invoke the abstract theoretical concept of the "o...

piie.com

DOL’s proposed rule to price H-1B and employment green card holders out of the US labor market is likely illegal. DOL invents facts and uses a questionable methodology to justify raising prevailing wages by up to 33%. @mclem.org @adamposen.bsky.social www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Immigration Report Finds DOL Rule Increasing H-1B Wages Likely Illegal

A new report finds the Trump administration’s proposed rule to require higher prevailing wages for H-1B visa holders is likely unlawful.

forbes.com

@adamposen.bsky.social reflects on how what has made the American economy an ongoing success at home & abroad has always been its dynamism, & what that means for the US course forward as it approaches its 250th anniversary of independence.

America's future in the post-American world economy

American global economic dominance has been clear for at least the last 110 years of its 250-year history, and it was widely foretold for half a century before that. It was never just about scale, eve...

piie.com

America's future in the post-American world economy How no kings ties together politics and economic dynamism for our 250th birthday. @piie.com (German language original published in @faznet.bsky.social ) www.piie.com/commentary/o...

America's future in the post-American world economy

American global economic dominance has been clear for at least the last 110 years of its 250-year history, and it was widely foretold for half a century before that. It was never just about scale, eve...

piie.com

De protecteur à gangster, d'assureur du monde à racketteur. Selon @adamposen.bsky.social, les États-Unis sont tombés dans le piège des tarifs. Un entretien à lire absolument. legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2026/04/2...

Trump a transformé les États-Unis d'assureur du monde en racketteur

Selon le président du Peterson Institute, la Maison-Blanche ne s’est pas engouffrée dans le piège de Thucydide, mais dans celui de Corleone.

legrandcontinent.eu

Thanks again to @adamposen.bsky.social for the clearest warning about what Brexit would do to the UK. If only more people had heard it...

The Best EVER explanation of Brexit

YouTube video by Femi - F Politics!

youtu.be

Thanks @james-mudge.bsky.social for digging that up, I don't know how. My closest brush with fame, proximity to a young Conan O'Brien before he was CONAN O"BRIEN

James Mudge@james-mudge.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Q: What does comedian x.com/ConanOBrien and economist @adamposen.bsky.social have in common? A: They were both on the same debate team in high school:

🧵 A postcard from the country that already crashed the car, sent with love and a small amount of nausea, to the cousins who are about to crash a bigger one. — @therickwilson.bsky.social's warning from America 🇺🇸➡️🇬🇧 bylinetimes.com/2026/05/08/r... 1/12

Rick Wilson's Warning From America: Nigel Farage Will Be Your Donald Trump, Unless You Act Now

The former Republican strategist and Lincoln Project founder has some hard lessons for Conservatives and Labour alike

bylinetimes.com

If you missed it, read this by @cullenhendrix.bsky.social in @foreignaffairs.com on AI as potentially generating the political economy of petrostates in the G7 economies. Provocative thinking from @piie.com

Cullen Hendrix@cullenhendrix.bsky.social · 5mo ago

"The challenge is not that AI will make societies poorer. Rather, it is that it will make them richer in ways that render many citizens economically dispensable for continued economic growth." My latest in @foreignpolicy.com on why our AI future could resemble the petrostate present.

What Trump's visit to China really indicates about US-China economic relations and global tensions Me on @marketplace.org with @kairyssdal.bsky.social @piie.com www.marketplace.org/story/2026/0...

What to expect from Trump's visit to China

Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, talks about what to expect from President Trump’s meetings with President Xi Jinping of China this week.

marketplace.org

Analysts say the problems identified in the Borjas paper show that the $100,000 H-1B fee is flawed and are a tax on talent. @mclem.org says a correct analysis would imply the optimal tax on foreign-born talent is zero. @adamposen.bsky.social @erikbryn.bsky.social www.forbes.com/sites/stuart...

Trump Immigration Restrictions Spur New Look At H-1B Salaries

The Trump administration’s plans to make H-1B visa holders more costly to hire have spurred new interest in H-1B salaries.

forbes.com

But reality’s a bitch, especially with Trump. Brexit Britain is most exposed to needing imports which are soaring thanks to Trump’s war & anaemic growth stalls. Now the toxic reality of stagflation - which @adamposen.bsky.social always predicted was inevitable brexit consequence - looks certain.

Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar Hugely important NEW essay by Maurice Obstfeld at @piie.com ahead of this week's G7/G20 global imbalances focused conversations. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Don't blame America's current account deficit on the dollar

The Trump administration and China's leaders generally differ on economic policy, but on one proposition some prominent members of their economic teams seem to agree: The dollar's status as the world'...

piie.com

This is the big one, MUST READ Thorough objective new analysis of the impact of Trump's trade war on China-US trade including on key industries @PIIE @ChadBown www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

China no longer buys US exports: Drawing the right lessons for the next Trump-Xi deal

China essentially stopped buying US exports in April 2025. President Donald Trump had started his second term by launching a new trade war that he headlined with steep new tariffs on China. When China...

piie.com

The broader US economy hasn’t had a big pullback in economic activity. But a shrinking workforce and a falling #breakeven #employment growth rate mean the labour market is tighter than what headline numbers suggest. @adamposen.bsky.social has argued this would lead to higher #services #inflation.

“Anybody who says we do not have a boom in a large part of the economy is wrong,” says @adamposen.bsky.social. “Right now the US has on balance, much going for it despite many, many self-inflicted wounds.” But “over time shooting oneself in the limbs will slow you down even if you miss your chest.”

Is the US economy as hot as Donald Trump thinks?

Risks from inflation and a precarious AI boom hover over stellar growth figures

ft.com