Given unpredictable tariff policy shifts, US corporate executives could be expected to discuss policy changes in their quarterly earnings calls. Analysis shows corporate mentions of Trump's tariffs in earnings calls spiked in spring 2025. Read more: www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

NEW: US tariffs have failed to significantly reduce US dependence on Chinese goods & services. 💡China's share of bilateral US imports fell by 7 percentage points from 2017-24 while China's share of value-added in US imports fell just 2 percentage points. Read more here: www.piie.com/publications...

The Strait of Hormuz closure: What happens to trade and shipping? www.piie.com/events/2026/...

The Strait of Hormuz closure: What happens to trade and shipping?

The Strait of Hormuz is a vital passage for world trade, notably for oil and fertilizers. Roughly 88 commercial vessels pass the strait per day, making it one of the world´s most critical maritime cho...

piie.com

Out today: part 2 of my blog with Maurice Obstfeld on why so-called "optimal" tariffs are not optimal. Within, we discuss the latest research on tariff incidence, and what we've learned from the Trump tariffs so far...

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 2d ago

Part 2: One of the biggest impediments to "optimal" tariffs improving national welfare is that it is US households & businesses who have borne most of the burden of Trump's tariffs in practice. Read here:

I am excited to join @piie.com, where I will continue to advance my research on U.S. trade policy alongside a leading group of experts committed to advancing global prosperity and developing practical policy solutions to contemporary economic challenges.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 2d ago

We're thrilled to announce @inumanak.bsky.social is joining PIIE as a senior fellow! Welcome, Inu! 🎉

Part 2: One of the biggest impediments to "optimal" tariffs improving national welfare is that it is US households & businesses who have borne most of the burden of Trump's tariffs in practice. Read here:

Who pays for tariffs? Insights from recent research

The Trump administration has mounted many varied claims to support its trade war, but a central argument is that foreigners, not US citizens, pay the price for tariffs. As discussed in our first blog,...

piie.com

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 6d ago

"Optimal" tariffs are misnamed, @kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld write, & do not lead to a net gain in national welfare in practice—in fact, they harm US interests. Tariffs are also not an efficient way to shift tax burdens from US residents onto foreigners.

Milei's behavior is not only damaging to the bilateral relations between the two countries but also potentially economically destructive to Argentina's heavy economic dependence on Brazil, its largest trading partner. By @mdebolle.com:

Will Argentina's gratuitous insults to Brazil compound its economic problems?

In a bid to flex his political muscle and highlight his law-and-order and free-market gospel lauded by President Donald Trump, President Javier Milei of Argentina abruptly appeared at the presidential...

piie.com

We're thrilled to announce @inumanak.bsky.social is joining PIIE as a senior fellow! Welcome, Inu! 🎉

New important analysis of why the "optimal tariff" argument fails in practice for the US right now By @kclausing.bsky.social and Obstfeld from @piie.com www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Advocates of President Donald Trump's tariff policies often bash economists for ignoring real-world complexities. Yet administration officials happily invoke the abstract theoretical concept of the "o...

piie.com

(1/2) My new blog out today with Maurice Obstfeld. We discuss why so-called "optimal tariffs" are far from optimal. In part 1 today, we show problems with the textbook argument, and note that other tax instruments are superior for the underlying aims.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 6d ago

"Optimal" tariffs are misnamed, @kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld write, & do not lead to a net gain in national welfare in practice—in fact, they harm US interests. Tariffs are also not an efficient way to shift tax burdens from US residents onto foreigners.

I wrote last year about the US Administration's plans to eviscerate Optional Practical Training, America's largest single source of global STEM talent: www.piie.com/blogs/realti... That came to pass. The White House is sharpening its tools to shatter OPT, and thus kneecap many US universities.

Exclusive | U.S. Weighs $100,000 Fee for Foreign Students Wanting to Work After Graduation

The proposed policy would particularly affect Silicon Valley, Wall Street and universities.

wsj.com

NEW: I made some charts and wrote some words... How did Trump’s 2025 trade war affect the decoupling of US-China supply chains? 🤓 www.piie.com/publications...

"Optimal" tariffs are misnamed, @kclausing.bsky.social & Maurice Obstfeld write, & do not lead to a net gain in national welfare in practice—in fact, they harm US interests. Tariffs are also not an efficient way to shift tax burdens from US residents onto foreigners.

“Optimal tariffs” are far from optimal: Part 1

Advocates of President Donald Trump's tariff policies often bash economists for ignoring real-world complexities. Yet administration officials happily invoke the abstract theoretical concept of the "o...

piie.com

The US Administration just cut the duration of student visas. Many have worried that visa extension backlogs will risk some students' graduation. At @piie.com I highlight a deeper problem. The rule gives political appointees discretion to do what they've promised: block most students from staying.

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...

piie.com

The private sector's share of China's 100 largest listed companies by market value continued to grow in 2026, reaching 41% by mid-year. #PIIECharts Notably, of those 100 companies, 27 had never appeared on the list before. Learn more here: www.piie.com/research/pii...

The US Administration just restricted the duration of student visas. What's the problem? Now political appointees have full discretion to block most international students from staying after graduation. They've promised to use their new power to do just that. My new @piie.com post explains—>

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...

piie.com

We have once again updated our Trade War Timeline 2.0. Check it out:

Trump's trade war timeline 2.0: An up-to-date guide

President Donald Trump started his second term in office with momentous plans to change US trade policy to achieve various economic and nontrade related aims. This timeline tracks the development of t...

piie.com

WATCH: @douglasirwin.bsky.social discusses President Trump’s plan to extend a 10% baseline tariff covering most trading partners. He says the Section 301 tariffs being used have a stronger legal ground than those struck down by the Supreme Court earlier this year.

Watch Trump’s New Tariffs Likely Here to Stay for Some Time, Professor Says - Bloomberg

Dartmouth College Professor of Economics Douglas Irwin discusses President Donald Trump’s plan to extend a 10% tariff baseline that will cover most trading partners. Irwin says the Section 301 tariffs...

bloomberg.com

Thanks to BBC News for the invitation to describe the two big opportunities that President Trump missed today by imposing his Section 301 tariffs, as well as HOW (not) TO WIN A TRADE WAR.

Latest must-read from PIIE's Michael Clemens! A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...

piie.com

Americans should be alarmed at the likely impact of the Trump admin's final rule restricting international students. It would drastically restrict high-skill foreign talent in STEM fields at the heart of innovation & productivity growth in the US economy. By @mclem.org:

A new US rule to restrict student visas will hurt the US economy

The Trump administration issued a final rule in July that gives it discretion to cut short the course of study of most international students at US universities. It will likely use this new power to b...

piie.com

Trump's Section 301 tariffs reach beyond the statute’s intention @kclausing.bsky.social says, & the focus on forced labor “is a mere pretext for recreating the IEEPA tariff regime.” There's “no evidence linking this sort of trade measure to the supposed policy goal” of cracking down on forced labor.

Trump sued hours after new tariffs take effect, as experts say they may not hold up

President Donald Trump has renewed a flurry of tariffs, including slapping 25% duties on Brazilian imports and vowing 50% tariffs on goods from Canada.

cnbc.com

Fiscal and exchange rate policies are major drivers of trade (current account) imbalances. Raising the fiscal balance by $1 raises the current account by $0.30. Buying $1 of foreign exchange reserves raises the current account roughly $0.50 or more.

How to buy a trade surplus

Global trade imbalances have gained attention following President Donald Trump's reelection, with China's trade surplus increasing and the US trade deficit remaining historically high. This paper esti...

piie.com

There is no reason to believe USTR's tariffs will be effective at reducing forced labor abroad. With the world accustomed to higher US tariffs, there is no evidence that changing US rationale for them will reduce forced labor in other countries.

Narrator: they are no longer planned but in fact in effect as of 12:01 AM today.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · 2w ago

The planned tariffs to combat forced labor again raise the question of whether the president has the legal authority to determine and implement US tariff policy—an authority that the Constitution vests in Congress. The answer is no.

The USTR sets no benchmark a country could meet to exit the Section 301 forced labor tariff, & it ties the application of tariffs to trade concessions rather than labor outcomes.

The forced labor case against Brazil is not about forced labor

The latest rationale to justify President Donald Trump's tariffs is the charge that US trading partners are condoning forced labor conditions—not in their own countries but in countries with whom they...

piie.com

Let's be clear. Trump's new tariffs merely recreate his unlawful IEEPA tariffs, and they are also unlawful. But it will take the courts a long time to establish this, if they do. In the meantime, US consumers and businesses will pay the price. www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

Trump's new tariffs over forced labor are unlikely to survive a court challenge

The Trump administration is again shifting its stated rationale for placing comprehensive tariffs on imports of nearly all goods from virtually all countries. After originally presenting such measures...

piie.com

Mary Lovely warns that while the US could end up building more auto plants, because of automation, they would employ even fewer workers.

AI, China, ‘dark factories’ and the future of the US auto industry

Economist Mary Lovely dismisses the claims that getting automakers to produce more cars in America proves tariffs work.

aljazeera.com

Fiscal & exchange rate policies are major drivers of trade imbalances. Other important drivers include productivity growth rates, per capita income, & demographic trends. Tariffs, on the other hand, do not have a major impact on trade balances.

How to buy a trade surplus

Global trade imbalances have gained attention following President Donald Trump's reelection, with China's trade surplus increasing and the US trade deficit remaining historically high. This paper esti...

piie.com

The planned tariffs to combat forced labor again raise the question of whether the president has the legal authority to determine and implement US tariff policy—an authority that the Constitution vests in Congress. The answer is no.

Trump's new tariffs over forced labor are unlikely to survive a court challenge

The Trump administration is again shifting its stated rationale for placing comprehensive tariffs on imports of nearly all goods from virtually all countries. After originally presenting such measures...

piie.com