Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn.bsky.social
Founding Partner of Zenith Research. Spreadsheets help me relax. Views are my own.
In publicly released polls conducted in February & March, Platner leads Mills by an average of 25 pts (56-31). Mills has not hit 40% in any poll conducted in 2026. Platner also outperforms Mills in matchups against Collins in each of the last six polls, by an average of 7 pts.
New Emerson College poll in Maine (3/21 - 3/23, likely voters) DEM PRIMARY (n=530, ±4.2% MoE) 🔵 55% Platner (+27) 🔵 28% Mills — GENERAL ELECTION (n=1,075 LV, ±2.9% MoE) 🔵 48% Platner (+7) 🔴 41% Collins 🔵 46% Mills (+3) 🔴 43% Collins
This looks pretty defensible from a geographic & demographic perspective (though hard to know how early vote demos will compare to Election Day vote demos) Here’s how the poll’s composition compares to the last three higher turnout primaries in the district (2020, 2018, 2016):
Frank Calabrese @frankcalabrese.bsky.social · 5mo agoNew IL09 poll from M3 Strategies, among voters who already cast ballots by mail or early in person: Kat Abughazaleh 29.5% Daniel Biss 26.2% Laura Fine 19.7% Phil Andrew 7.9% Mike Simmons 6.6% Bushra Amiwala 5.1% Crosstabs next thread
Here’s another way of looking at Chicago racial and ideological coalitions. Raja is expected to do better in the red and yellow wards. Stratton is expected to do better in the green, blue & turquoise wards. Gray wards are usually competitive.
🚨 New @ZenithPolls poll among n=800 likely Dem primary voters in Maryland (2/8-11) 🚨 🔵 70% support the state legidlature redrawing the state’s congressional map before November after hearing arguments for and against it
Democrats have now flipped Miami mayor (first time a Democrat has won it since 1998) and a Trump +12 Georgia state House district Democrats have outperformed Harris’ 2024 margin by double digits in 4/4 races so far tonight, with an avg. overperformance of 17.5 points Buckle up.
Pearl clutch if you must, but if we’re disqualifying millennial & Gen Z candidates for posting dumb shit on social media when they were younger we’re not gonna have anyone left to run in a few cycles. He’s disavowed them, we’ll see how much voters care. I’m sticking with Graham.
CNN@cnn.com · 10mo agoA Marine veteran turned oyster farmer who is now a rising Democratic Senate candidate once called himself a “communist,” dismissed “all” police as bastards, and said rural White Americans “actually are” racist and stupid, according to deleted social media posts seen by CNN. https://cnn.it/47sXon6
3 weeks to go until Election Day 2025 and wanted to share a really cool Election Night chart that my pal @admcrlsn.bsky.social worked on. He did one of these last fall & I suggested he do one again. So here you go! Almost to the finish line folks! ✊
NEW: Democratic oyster farmer Graham Platner is the candidate best positioned to defeat Susan Collins in Maine's Senate race, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by Zenith Research for More Perfect Union.
Poll: Platner Best Positioned Maine Dem to Defeat Susan Collins
After respondents were shown short biographies for both candidates, Graham Platner leads Sen. Susan Collins by 14 points, while Gov. Janet Mills leads Collins by 8 points.
substack.perfectunion.us
In the September polls that tested a full field & one with just Mamdani/Cuomo/Sliwa, here’s how Adams’ voters broke: 🟡 52% went to Cuomo 🔴 17% went to Sliwa 🔵 10% went to Mamdani ⚫️ 21% went to undecided So Cuomo basically nets ~4 points, but he’s still down by ~15 points.
Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · 10mo agoNEW YORK (AP) — New York City Mayor Eric Adams ends his reelection campaign.
I’ve seen a lot of coverage over a poll saying Dems are “too focused” on climate change and LGBTQ issue. But voters say the Republican Party is not focused enough on jobs and affordability — issues much more predictive of voting — and far too much on immigration. open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
Are Democrats "talking too much" about left-wing issues?
The data mostly do not justify the conclusions people are drawing
open.substack.com
Reasons why this Emerson poll is tied: — Murphy’s approval rating is -10 — Ciattarelli leads by 26 points among independents Reasons why Sherrill is still favored: — 72% of undecided voters are women — 62% of undecideds are Harris voters — 18% of Black voters are undecided
New Jersey Monitor@newjerseymonitor.com · 10mo agoNew poll finds dead heat in NJ governor’s race newjerseymonitor.com/briefs/new-p...
I’ve been a huge fan of @thedownballot.bsky.social (and its previous iterations at Daily Kos Elections and as The Swing State Project) for nearly two decades. So it was a huge honor to be interviewed on their podcast yesterday. We talked polling philosophy, NYC, NJ, VA, Prop 50 & more.
If you’re looking for a reason why Mamdani might overperform his polling and break 50% www.foxnews.com/politics/fox...
Stay tuned for the release of a brand new, first of its kind, fully independent NYC mayor general election poll from Zenith Research (me) and Public Progress Solutions (Amit Singh Bagga) this afternoon. More ways to cut the data of this race than you’ve seen in any previous poll.
Some personal news — I am beyond excited to be formally launching my own polling firm, Zenith Research! After over a dozen years working in the industry, I wanted to build something on my own — with a fresh, independent, methodologically rigorous & radically transparent approach.
Someone out there has the chance to make an excellent hire right now:
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn.bsky.social · last yr.Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!
Hi everyone — I was laid off from my job on Friday If you know of any open opportunities in polling or market research (full-time or contracts/consulting), please let me know. I have 12 years of experience in the industry If you don’t, please consider reposting/sharing Thanks!
Wild story in the WSJ. It’s paywalled so I’ll screenshot some key excerpts below. But basically it’s about how Mark Zuckerberg spent millions trying to suck up to Trump so Meta only had to pay $450M (instead of $30B that the FTC wanted) to settle an antitrust case against them.
And here's a crosstab aggregate of Trump's net job approval from national polls conducted during his second month in office
Adam Carlson@admcrlsn.bsky.social · last yr.For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
For the first time in his second term, Trump’s job approval rating among voters is net negative. 10-day unweighted rolling average: • Feb 1 🟢 +8.6 • Feb 15 🟢 +5.3 • Mar 1 🟢 +1.3 • Mar 10 🔴 -0.2
I’m no expert but it seems like you want the opposite of this to happen?
Hey bluesky I’m looking for my next job covering politics and campaigns. If you have any leads lmk!!
Twitter outage happened when this was at the top of my feed and now it’s frozen there. Sometimes life is just so beautiful.
I rarely post personal stuff, but our best friends lost their home yesterday in the LA wildfire I’d be forever grateful if you could donate even a few dollars as they start picking up the pieces of their lives And if you can’t donate, please repost ❤️ www.gofundme.com/f/help-sam-a...
I know it’s against the informal code to be mean on here or whatever but H*rry E*nten really reminds me of an adult version of the annoying kid from Polar Express
