G Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris.com
i write the data-driven politics newsletter Strength In Numbers: gelliottmorris.com/subscribe wrote a book by the same name wwnorton.com/books/Strength-in-Numbers polling averages at @fiftyplusone.news formerly @ 538 & The Economist. email, don't DM, me
Takes like this are very tempting but IMO go too far. The polling miss last night was historically exactly average for a primary — no evidence polls have gotten worse recently. And remember 2022 had the most accurate House and Senate polls in history! bsky.app/profile/gell...
Adam Serwer@adamserwer.bsky.social · 4h agoThere’s no actual alternative to polling but I just don’t believe they capture public sentiment in any reliable way anymore
What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...
Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?
Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual
blog.fiftyplusone.news
|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 5h agoPolling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.
Fair enough, but the non-partisan polls of the races also did very poorly: - Emerson: El-Sayed +16 - Tavern: AES +10 - Glengariff: Stevens +7 - Mitchell: AES +14 Looks less like partisan pollsters rigging their data and more like a combination of late movement and biased samples across the board
Norm Ornstein@normornstein.bsky.social · 13h agoWhoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan, I hope with little expectation that those who took seriously polls showing a rout for El-Sayed will think twice about relying on questionable and/or partisan polls.
Recent reports have been much friendlier to AES after moving toward Stevens from a very aggressive AES early pool of returns. Not looking like Wayne has enough left for Stevens but you never know. I have an 8 week old so I’m going to bed (but she’s gonna wake me up at 3 so I’ll check back then…)
One of the problems with people who spend too much time on X is that they lose all ability to do basic reading comprehension
Looks like a 10-15 point polling miss in Michigan regardless of who wins. And people have been writing a lot of electability takes using this data. It’s dangerous out there folks be safe
Based on current returns, Stevens needs at least +20 margin out of Wayne to close the gap. Could narrow based on the e-day - absentee breakdown She’s at +1 right now
The numbers coming out of Detroit are not enough for Stevens. It’s a bloodbath
joining the mob on January 6 -- to own the libs
Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 19h agovoting republican to pwn leftists on twitter
Our average of polls at FiftyPlusOne gives Trump a roughly 36% approval rating and 61% disapproval rating — a net -25 — among all adults, and he’s rapidly losing ground. The president set a new record low six days in a row just in the last week: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-04...
The reason Trump’s approval keeps hitting a new all-time low every day, and why Republicans might lose the Senate, is because GOP voters are losing their enthusiasm for his agenda, while independents move in droves toward an energized Democratic base. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-08-04...
god, please grant me the confidence of mediocre republican operatives who can't read
Love the new @fiftyplusone.news midterms forecasts! fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
fiftyplusone.news
Feeling great about this post from May (Cook Political Report still has TX as Likely R) www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-texas-...
The Texas Senate election is a tossup
Democratic candidate James Talarico has very good shot against Ken Paxton in the Lone Star State
gelliottmorris.com
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 2d agoDems strongly favored to take the House in our new election forecast. Senate just better than a tossup: Iowa: 41% Dem Texas: 48 Alaska: 51 Ohio: 53 Maine: 68 Michigan: 69 North Carolina: 84 Georgia: 94 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Dems strongly favored to take the House in our new election forecast. Senate just better than a tossup: Iowa: 41% Dem Texas: 48 Alaska: 51 Ohio: 53 Maine: 68 Michigan: 69 North Carolina: 84 Georgia: 94 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Democrats strongly favored to take the House, Senate tilts Democratic in our new election forecast (crosspost)
Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers
gelliottmorris.com
New from Strength In Numbers: Trump’s immigration agenda and esp deportation operation is unpopular in every swing state — including Maine, where Susan Collins is trying to moderate on ICE www.gelliottmorris.com/p/even-repub...
i thought this was an excellent piece.
Quanta Magazine@quantamagazine.org · 4d agoWhat are AI systems actually doing when we say they’re busy “reasoning”? In this week’s Qualia column, John Pavlus reckons with the intellectual whiplash of the last few years. https://www.quantamagazine.org/is-ai-reasoning-right-for-the-wrong-reasons-20260731/
For our mega-survey on populist attitudes, we asked whether people would prefer a more multi-party system or a two-party system. The former blew the latter out of the water. Asked about specific reforms to get there, people are less sure. Also, Trump populists are the most fond of the status quo.
Americans Hate the Two-Party System But Don’t Know What Should Replace It, ISMA Populism Survey Finds
Voters overwhelmingly want something different, but don’t know or understand the reform options on the table
theunpopulist.net
Latest at @fiftyplusone.news: We built a dataset tracking every primary endorsement from Trump, progressive groups, party committees, women’s groups, and pro-Israel groups. Halfway through the season, here's who's winning. 🧵 blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...
To be making the argument in 2026 that immigration is a Republican leaning issue so Democrats shouldn’t campaign on it, and especially Trump’s overreach on deportations, is to be completely ignorant of the data and events of the last 18 months
Greg Sargent@gregsargent.bsky.social · 5d agoThis is the problem with the idea that Dems can't go on offense on immigration. It's not okay for Collins to have a clear field on TV to sell herself as a moderate on ICE. CNN has Trump 22 points underwater on this. Two other polls have Ds *tied with the GOP* on it! newrepublic.com/article/2138...
50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...
We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.
Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Trump's ratings on the cost of living have slumped over the last few months. This is all self-inflicted from his tariff obsession and his misadventures in the Middle East. As ever, follow @gelliottmorris.com for the latest data.
I took a look at the link between gas prices (high) and approval of Trump’s handling of prices (very bad) over the last 6 months. The data suggests evaluations of POTUS are sticky and negative, wouldn’t return to normal even if gas prices go back below $3 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/cheap-gas-...
i've got a good piece on this www.gelliottmorris.com/p/meet-ameri...
Meet America’s new swing voter: The anti-system voter. (Or: Why Democrats should think through nominating AOC in 2028)
A new paper finds anti-system sentiment — not left-right ideology — decided the 2016 and 2024 elections
gelliottmorris.com
Josh Marshall@joshtpm.bsky.social · 6d agoAmong many other things this is a good illustration of the necessity of untethering ideology and "fight" in intra-Democratic battles. The party is very united on fight, very divided on ideology. You unite on fight, let different constituencies/states find their center of gravity on ideology.
going live now! open.substack.com/live-stream/...
LIVE SOON: Trump's new all-time low approval, and Strength In Numbers returns!
Starting Jul 30 at 2:00 PM EDT
open.substack.com
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 7d agoThe Strength In Numbers podcast returns! Join me and @davidnir.com live tomorrow at 2:00 PM Eastern right here to talk about Trump's new all-time low approval rating and the state of the midterms: open.substack.com/live-stream/...
I didn’t know anyone used this. I’m glad to figure out that they do! I’ll update it after Michigan next week. :)
PlayfulPiano (he/him)@playfulpiano.bsky.social · 6d ago@gelliottmorris.com heya, do you think it could be possible to update your Senate simulator project's default settings following the MN/MI primary elections? It was last updated in April, and between the GCB/polling and recent election outcomes, imo it should get an update.
