Alex Clegg

@alexclegg.bsky.social

Economist at the Resolution Foundation, focusing on social security, poverty and living standards

As debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️

A key task for the Pensions Commission should be to say what the right State Pension level is in relation to earnings and set out how to end the triple lock once that's reached. Our view is that we're there already. New spotlight out this morning, and see Ruth's thread for a summary.

Ruth Curtice@ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🧵It’s time to stop being polite about the triple lock! It was always a poorly designed, unfair, arbitrary ratchet and we can no longer afford it. New @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight out this morning🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Some thoughts on the interim Milburn report. Overall it's encouraging to see how well it recognises the drivers of the NEETs crisis, but the overarching focus on work risks obscuring vocational education in particular as a key pathway out of NEET status

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 2mo ago

How can reduce the UK's rising NEET rate? Yes, work is important, but focusing too much on work to reduce the rising NEET rate risks overlooking two key areas. @alexclegg.bsky.social explains in our latest substack ⤵️

🧵 New HBAI data out yesterday from DWP and it comes with a big methodological upgrade. For the first time, Family Resources Survey responses have been linked to benefits admin records, fixing years of benefit under-reporting. Here's what it means for how we understand poverty in the UK...

In her speech yesterday, the Chancellor said the question people will be asking themselves at the next election is "are me and my family better off?" So what is the answer likely to be? 🧵

We're almost a week away from the biggest event of the year: The @resolutionfoundation.org Unsung Britain conference, where we'll be telling you all about the book we're launching on the 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country. Be there or be 🟦. Sign up here:

Unsung Britain Final Conference • Resolution Foundation

The 13 million working-age families across the poorest half of the country, who at various times have been dubbed the ‘squeezed middle’, ‘just about managing families’ and ‘alarm clock Britain’ are wi...

resolutionfoundation.org

We discussed this report with one of the architects of universal credit (Stephen Brien), a changing realities participant (Jonny Roberts) and a welfare rights adviser (Corin Hammersley). They all agreed that we need to continue to improve universal credit as roll-out completion finally completes.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 6mo ago

🧵 NEW: Our report 'Listen and learn' sets out how the Government should improve Universal Credit (UC) for the 15 million people who rely on it. 13 years after its roll-out began, it’s time to get UC right. We've co-produced recommendations with @changingrealities.bsky.social participants 👇

Good news - DWP has finally published UC Health data, splitting out those who have migrated over from legacy benefits (ESA). What does the data tell us? ESA migration accounts for most of the rise in UC Health claims over the past year - but new claims explain more of the rise since the pandemic.

Our updated child poverty projections following the publication of the Strategy show a significant fall next year and a decline over the whole Parliament. Still more to be done, but this is a good achievement in the face of significant headwinds and a tight fiscal position

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 8mo ago

Updating our projections for the latest data and forecasts from the OBR, we project that child poverty rates will fall to 31 per cent by 2029-30, 3.5 percentage points lower than would have been the case in the absence of policy changes …

Chart showing proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs, under different scenarios: UK

This Budget was undoubtedly a progressive one. The combination of tax rises and giveaways since last year’s Budget means that incomes for households in the bottom half of the distribution rise by 1.0 per cent while incomes for the richer half fall by 0.7 per cent. But beneath the surface...

Chart showing: Change in annual income in cash terms (left axis) and as share of income (right axis), as a result of tax and benefit policy changes announced since Autumn Budget 2024, by income vigintile: UK, 2029-30

How has the Budget impacted living standards? The distributional impact of all tax/benefit changes since Autumn Budget 2024 is progressive:poorer households gain from 2-child limit repeal and UC boost, while richer households lose from threshold freezes and new property, dividend and savings taxes

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