Ruth Curtice
@ruthcurtice.bsky.social
Chief Executive, Resolution Foundation
Autumn Budget 2026 has just been announced for 28 October so it’s time to get technical about living standards. The two main measures of household income, RHDI and HBAI, can tell very different stories. The new @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight I’ve just published explains why. 🧵⤵️
Today Burnham announced the return of the £2 bus fare cap, a much loved policy of previous Governments that was raised to £3 by Reeves two years ago. But who will benefit? [THREAD]
Ahead of Reeves delivering what most people assume will be her final Mansion House speech we’ve been looking at the data on how the economic picture has changed over the past two years. What is Reeves’ legacy?
Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏
Reuters@reuters.com · 4w agoIMF appoints Silvana Tenreyro as chief economist, head of research reut.rs/4yb4AQ8
Some of the headroom estimates in this article look a touch optimistic to me. But we're all guessing at this point. One thing we can be sure of is that the Treasury's briefing to a new PM will not start "things are much better than people think actually". www.ft.com/content/c4ce...
Lots on and missed this. Patrick is right that the government should hurry up and appoint a National Statistician as @hetanshah.bsky.social has said. But we must stop criticising the ONS for old mistakes, or for being honest about new ones, to help it turn around. www.ft.com/content/fe04...
The ONS: an Outrage of National Significance
The UK statistics agency plays a vital role but has been beset by errors and poor leadership
ft.com
Good to see Andy Burnham place the stagnant living standards of the last twenty years at the heart of his economic agenda today. But what are the chances of growth in every postcode, and what would it take to get there? A thread…
Lots of jobs changing at the moment - but let's focus on the most important. I am recruiting for a new partner in crime. Take a look, and get in touch if you want to help us deliver higher living standards across the UK, with an incredible team. www.resolutionfoundation.org/director/
Director • Resolution Foundation
The Resolution Foundation is seeking a new Director, to work closely with the Chief Executive to develop and deliver the overall strategy of the organisation; to drive the next phase of the Foundation...
resolutionfoundation.org
With Andy Burnhnam looking ever more likely to be the next PM, what tough decisions lie ahead for him? Turns out the new trade-offs look a lot like the old trade-offs. @ruthcurtice.bsky.social breaks down the challenges – from living standards to public services – in 5 charts ⬇️ buff.ly/vTEZMib
Dear Andy • Resolution Foundation
Morning all, I don’t know why major international football tournaments provoke upheaval on Downing Street, but there’s definitely a pattern emerging. So, we’ve got a special edition for you, laying…
resolutionfoundation.org
Very pleased that bbc verify have now corrected their chart based on our points - kudos to them for listening www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
What's happened to UK defence spending?
BBC Verify looks at the size of the UK military after Lord Robertson criticises the government over defence spending.
bbc.co.uk
Ruth Curtice@ruthcurtice.bsky.social · 2mo agoAs debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️
Fun to be back in the weeds of public sector finances data to appear on world@1 today. The high debt-interest today is a one off thanks to the jump in inflation in March. Debt interest forecasts in the autumn will depend on whether yields are higher or lower in the ten days the OBR happen to use.
Elliott Christensen@elliott-xtensen.bsky.social · 2mo agoAmid by-election news, today’s public finances release shows a continued poor start to 2026-27: borrowing in May was £5.6bn above forecast, pushing borrowing so far this financial year £7.7bn above pre-war forecasts. Short thread.
This 'bloody southerners' thing may well have worked well for the King of the North in Makerfield. Whether it'll help him should he become King of the South, West and East as well is open to question.... (h/t @ruthcurtice.bsky.social)
There’ll be a good weather impact, but even so - retail sales well ahead of expectations in May. www.ons.gov.uk/businessindu...
Retail sales, Great Britain - Office for National Statistics
Retail sales rose in the three months to May 2026, according to our first estimate.
ons.gov.uk
Continuing signs of a weak labour market in this mornings data. And a very striking rise in zero hours contract - see Louise's brilliant thread for more.
Louise Murphy@louisemurphy.bsky.social · 2mo agoThis morning’s data shows a weak labour market: unemployment remains high and real wages are barely growing. The monthly LFS unemployment data is volatile but the big picture is that unemployment has been climbing for the past few years and stood at 4.9% in the three months to April.
As debates rage about where to get the money for higher defence spending, it’s important we have a clear picture of how we spent the peace dividend while it was around. Thread 🧵⤵️
🧵It’s time to stop being polite about the triple lock! It was always a poorly designed, unfair, arbitrary ratchet and we can no longer afford it. New @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight out this morning🧵 www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
What a ratchet! • Resolution Foundation
The State Pension triple lock has delivered real gains for pensioners since its introduction in 2012. But the case for boosting pensioner incomes over and above others has now run out, while the case ...
resolutionfoundation.org
Today, my book finally enters the big wide world! Exciting and also nerve-wracking! I'm really thrilled with this lovely review in The Spectator today, which describes it as "powerful and refreshing". If that sounds like YOUR cup of tea, please buy a copy! spectator.com/article/will...
If you missed @soumayakeynes.ft.com and @chadpbown.com then you missed 1) why this isn't all about Trump 2) why the UK will need to pick a side and 3) how to arm yourself in the fight. But don't worry you can buy the book! Everything you wanted to know about trade but were too afraid to ask.
JamesSmithRF@jamessmithrf.bsky.social · 2mo agoDo checkout the event: www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/how-t...
Guess who’s in London and excited for our talks this week at the Resolution Foundation (tomorrow) and the LSE (Thursday)?!!?? PS the ukulele may or may not be making an appearance tomorrow - but only in person so you should DEFINITELY brave the tube strike
"If people felt better off, the Government would be getting a lower penalty on its handling of other things" @profjanegreen.bsky.social spoke to us about whether higher living standards the key to electoral success. Subscribe to High Resolution wherever you get your podcasts ⤵️ buff.ly/xAvHIV0
IMF's review of the UK is v positive in the scheme of these things. Fiscal&growth policy on the right track. One v significant nugget "the long-term scope for further revenue increases is becoming limited unless more fundamental tax reforms are envisaged" www.imf.org/en/news/arti...
United Kingdom: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission
• While the UK economy has remained resilient in recent years, the war in the Middle East is dampening near-term prospects. Growth is projected to slow to 1.0 percent this year, then gradually recover...
imf.org
Enjoyed the solid debates this morning at our event about whether Sunak, Boris, or Thatcher represent the most appropriate analogy for current times. But for the Sunak camp it did start pouring it down in Westminster about ten mins after Wes announcement.
Bank of England follows the Fed and holds its policy rate at 3.75% given uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East. BoE hints it will be patient on raising rates but the bigger issue is its assessment of the impact of the war. Thread on all that to follow...
What happens when you increase the Irish talent at RF....kudos to @cillian-sheehan.bsky.social for this chart of the week to lighten the mood as beer garden weather finally kicks in.
Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3mo agoHow many pints of Guinness does an hour’s work buy you? Well, it depends where you live. Check out our Chart of the week ⤵️ buff.ly/KPkiIZZ
Looking forward to this one already - that moment when your clever friend writes an awesome book and you get to interview them about it on stage! @soumayakeynes.ft.com www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/how-t...
How to win a trade war • Resolution Foundation
Register to attend in person or to receive an access link for online viewers. Trade wars are becoming a feature of the modern global economy and are being tied to actual wars too. Britain has played i...
resolutionfoundation.org
Great event. It is hard to size economic effects through uncertainty but policymakers can't "wait and see" forever so we have to try. The Bank face their next decision in a month and the government has time before deciding whether to provide energy bill support.
Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 4mo agoAnd that's a wrap! Watch back our event "The economic fallout from war in the Middle East: growth, interest rates and the public finances" w @ruthcurtice.bsky.social @msaundersecon.bsky.social @tejparikh.ft.com Liz Martins & @simonpittaway.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/events/the-e...
For our chart of the week we've dug into the data on school absences. Worryingly, the rate of severe school absences is rising. And there's a lot of regional variation, with London performing significantly better. Read the full newletter from @ruthcurtice.bsky.social ⤵️ buff.ly/SdrRmBm
Pre-Middle East conflict UK economic data from ONS: GDP rose by 0.5% in February Unemployment fell from 5.3 to 4.9% in January Borrowing in February £1.9bn below the OBR forecast Positive trends now all at risk. No wonder the Chancellor is seething in Washington…
Good to see removing the Carbon Price Support form part of this. Something @resolutionfoundation.org suggested way back in 2023
James Murray@james-bg.bsky.social · 4mo agoWelcome move from the Treasury to expand its energy bill support for businesses, bringing the UK more into line with European competitors. But... www.businessgreen.com/news/4528373...