Many thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social for having me on the @niskanencenter.bsky.social #ScienceofPolitics podcast to talk '26 midterms for the U.S. Senate & House! TLDR; battleground looks expanded for Senate Democrats compared to year ago thanks to candidate recruitment efforts. Take a listen!

Matt Grossmann@mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Predicting Congressional Election Results Presidential approval & ideological direction of public opinion, not economics or party conflict, predict election results. That looks good for Dems New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Carlos Algara www.niskanencenter.org/what-predict...

New article by @algaraca.bsky.social, Byengseon Bae, @edwardheadington.bsky.social, Hengjiang Liu, Bianca Nigri and Lisette Gomez uses presidential approval, party brands and polling gaps to forecast 2024 U.S. elections, improving on standard models. Read more: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

journals.sagepub.com

Now that the 2025 cycle is complete, fun to look ahead to the 2026 midterms in the U.S. Senate. Fun talking with @nationaljournal.com on the state of play for the Senate majority in 2026 & even 2028. TLDR; Democratic majority might be a two-cycle project. www.nationaljournal.com/s/730098/sen...

Senate Democrats’ two-cycle math

The GOP won a four-seat gain in 2024. Democrats want theirs in 2026.

nationaljournal.com

What an incredible public good and contribution!

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 10mo ago

we have been working on this new polling aggregation website for a few months now, and are excited to share it with the world! plenty more features and polls to come.

For public policy scholars: JPIPE published our article that uses machine learning to code the universe of congressional and state legislative data since 2009 by the Comparative Agenda Project policy codes. That's 1.68 million bills. OPEN-ACCESS here: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...

Terrific to see this new research note out w/ @djsimmons.bsky.social @isaachale.bsky.social in @repjournal.bsky.social

Representation@repjournal.bsky.social · last yr.

NEW! How do interest group endorsements shape Americans' policy preferences? In a new study, Algara, Hale & Simmons find that pro-reform messages from interest groups increase support for voting rights legislation - but only among Democrats @algaraca.bsky.social #PoliticalScience #PublicOpinion

Terrific to see my @claremontgraduateu.bsky.social Fall 2023 independent study being highlighted. We developed a unified model of U.S. elections from theory to estimation/forecasting--resulting in a @pspolisci.bsky.social piece: tinyurl.com/rarx8txk Fun collaboration! www.cgu.edu/news/2025/04...

How an Independent Study Project Became a Published Election Forecast | Claremont Graduate UniversityClaremont Graduate University

cgu.edu

Great to be featured in this @nytimes.com piece highlighting incredible continuation of partisan continuity in county-level voting patterns during the 2024 elections. Also neat to see our @electoralstudies.bsky.social data used for terrific data viz for public use. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Did Republicans Take Washington in a Landslide? Not So Much

President-elect Donald J. Trump was the first Republican to win the popular vote in two decades, but by only a 1.5-point margin, the narrowest since 2000.

nytimes.com

Congratulations to Senator Thune, the U.S. Senate’s Majority Leader in the 119th Congress. Thune (2002) joins esteemed company w/LBJ (1941), Howard Baker (1964), & Harry Reid (1974) as Senate Majority Leaders that lost their first Senate election. There’s a life lesson there!

Excited to see work w/@edwardheadington.bsky.social & others using new data on party & POTUS brands since 1938 to predict 2024 elexs at POTUS & congressional levels out @pspolisci.bsky.social! Project stemmed from independent study w/talented CGU students; neat experience! 🔗 tinyurl.com/37242ppc

Excited to share new work in the Journal of Political Marketing w/terrific grad student Seon Bae. Using 1900-2022 data on *both* House & Senate; we find candidate quality & incumbency continues bicameral decline in salience but amateurs might've cost McConnell the majority. 🔗 tinyurl.com/ykxne95c

Excited to see our article out at JPIPE, especially in the issue commemorating the 30th anniversary of Cox & McCubbins' Legislative Leviathan. Josh Ryan & I ask are there exogenous sources of variation in ideological policy concessions the majority makes to the minority in Congress? Yes! 1/2

Interesting new poll on the mass public's approval of the U.S. Congress...but is 8% the new "normal?" Nope, looks like the chaos in theHouse might be drawing congressional approval to *historic* lows according to universe of polling from 1974-2022. 8% approval is the third lowest ever recorded!

Great opportunity for first post on BlueSky! Excited to have an article in this Electoral Studies special issue on comparative Affective Polarization w/my good buddy @roizur.bsky.social . Check out all the neat comparative work on measurement, parties, and role of policy in AP!

Markus Wagner@markuswagner.bsky.social · 3y ago

Check out this new special issue in Electoral Studies: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/elec... It contains 7 cool articles on the nature and causes of AP - using observational and experimental data, focusing on measurement, elites and ideology, and an important theoretical piece as well.

Just had our big U01 kickoff meeting for the next phase of the Understanding America Study! A reminder to everyone in polisky that there's an enormous amount of existing data here and that if you field a survey using the UAS you can easily merge. https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php