Tom Smith

@analyst42.bsky.social

Code-first data analyst, mostly #rstats. Good information --> good decisions. Head of Activity Analysis & Forecasting at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust. Personal account, views my own. https://github.com/ThomUK

⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's match at #FIFA2026 In Semifinal: #ENGARG #ENG #ARG Probability to advance: 58.2% vs. 41.8% 🥅 In normal time: Mean goals: 1.4-1.1 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 43.9% Draw 26.7% 🇦🇷 29.4% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match in normal time:

Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match. The most likely outcome is 1-1 with a probability of 12.7%.

The benefit of making things in #RStats and Quarto is that it only takes about 10 minutes to update an entire article when the next year of data is available. You can now explore this personal project about which baby names were popular in 2025 here: nrennie.rbind.io/data-stories... #DataViz

Screenshot of article showing most popular baby names in England & Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland for boys and girls in 2025. They are Olivia, Grace, and Freya for girls, and Muhammad, Noah, and Noah for boys.
Nicola Rennie@nrennie.bsky.social · 2mo ago

This week's #TidyTuesday data compares baby names in Scotland, Northern Ireland, and England & Wales 📊 One of the interesting things about this data is that you can often spot trends related to current events 👸 Code: github.com/nrennie/tidy... #DataViz #ggplot2 #RStats #QuartoPub

Multi-panel line charts showing baby name popularity in England and Wales, Northern Ireland, and Scotland from 1997–2024. Following the births of Prince George (2013), Princess Charlotte (2015), and Prince Louis (2018), marked by vertical lines, the names George and especially Charlotte show noticeable increases in popularity across regions, while Louis shows smaller, shorter-lived increases.

Belgium annihilating the United States in front of their public is the best way to end this scandal. Corruption can only get you so far, especially when it angers your talented opponents. Well done, Belgium 🇧🇪

Fable is doing useful stuff for me. I know I prompted in this direction, but Fable agrees with me - it's very frustrating that NHSE continue to scatter their public data products across different websites, with different UI, naming conventions, and no metadata. Still no APIs on this stuff in 2026!

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Tom Smith@analyst42.bsky.social · last mo.

Now that we have Fable back, I've posed it my most devilishly difficult question to think about while I sleep. It's complicated, interconnected, in places not very well scoped or described (in truth because I don't have a good approach for solving it). Looking forward to seeing progress!

Now that we have Fable back, I've posed it my most devilishly difficult question to think about while I sleep. It's complicated, interconnected, in places not very well scoped or described (in truth because I don't have a good approach for solving it). Looking forward to seeing progress!

This artwork by Karl Jilg, commissioned by the Swedish government, reveals how city streets have excluded human beings. Sometimes, imagination conveys our world closer to reality than reality itself.

Artwork by Karl Jilg. A surreal urban scene shows pedestrians calmly walking along a narrow sidewalk suspended above a vast, deep chasm. A man balances precariously on a wooden plank connecting two sides, as though unaware of the danger below. The surrounding environment appears normal, with traffic lights and storefronts, yet the impossible drop emphasizes a disjointed reality. Everyday life continues despite the looming void.

Big paper on AI coding agents using Github data. The early auto-complete tools (like Copilot) led to 2.2x as much code, local agents like original Claude Code led to 7.4x, & current remote coding agents 17.3x(!) But human bottlenecks in the coding process means actual releases "only" went up 30%.

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A customer replies "thanks!" to a support ticket you just closed... and the ticket reopens. Now someone has to open it, read it, and close it again. A thousand tiny paper cuts across a day. So we taught There There to recognize a thank-you and leave the ticket closed. 🧵 here's how! ⬇️

An infographic details a process for ticket management, featuring icons representing messages, checks, questions, and connections.

A gif from my first locally-deployed diffusion model (Quen-image). The frames of the gif are each of the sequential de-noising steps, ultimately producing the final image. The prompt was kindly supplied by my 6 year old son!