⚽ Probabilistic forecasts for today's matches at #FIFA2026 using our machine learning ensemble. In Group H: #ESPCPV #ESP #CPV 🥅 Mean goals: 2.1-0.6 🇪🇸 70.6% Draw 19.0% 🇨🇻 10.3% Heatmap with probabilistic forecasts for the possible outcomes of the match:

⚽ Our probabilistic forecasts for the #FIFA2026 #WorldCup are out. 📈 Based on a machine learning algorithm combining data, expert insights, and advanced statistical models. 🤝 Joint work w/ Andy Groll & team, @rmichels.bsky.social, Lars Hvattum, Gunther Schauberger. www.zeileis.org/news/fifa2026/

Our paper on #HMMs with periodically ⏰ varying transition probabilities is published! 🎉 @carlinafeldmann.bsky.social, Sina Mews, @rmichels.bsky.social @rolandlangrock.bsky.social doi.org/10.1214/25-AOAS2107 We derive the periodically #stationary distribution and the implied dwell-time distribution

We're all looking forward to the #UEFA #WEURO2025 starting on tomorrow! ⚽ Do you want to know what is the likely course of the tournament and who probably wins? 🏆 Read our blog post: 📰 www.zeileis.org/news/weuro2025/

Sachen gibt's: Wenn man die Skalierung der Achse ändert, ist auf einmal der Balken beim Linksextremismus länger.

I wrote about the defining story of the Premier League season. How Liverpool lost one of the best coaches in the history of the sport -- and immediately got better: www.espn.com/soccer/story...

Are Liverpool proof coaches don't matter? Or is Slot just better than Klopp?

Liverpool were supposed to struggle once Jurgen Klopp left. Instead, Arne Slot won the Premier League. Do coaches just not matter?

espn.com

Diese Realitätsverweigerung bei gleichzeitiger Behauptung, man würde die Realität aber viel besser sehen, ist schon dreist.

In this year‘s NFL Big Data Bowl 🏈 submission, @rmichels.bsky.social, Robert Bajons, and I employ hidden Markov models to uncover 🔎guarding assignments and use this additional information to improve the prediction of defensive strategies. 📊 #bigdatabowl #rstats