Jeffrey Lewis
@armscontrolwonk.bsky.social
Distinguished Research Fellow FPRI, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.
My colleague @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I discussed on our podcast the history of our now decade-and-half old show, his future, my future, and our major plans for 2027 and beyond www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
From Past to Future
armscontrolwonk.com
Fact check: True. Caddell was talking about Reagan-like landslide for Romney in 2012 but in the end it wasn’t even particularly close as Obama swept Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, while picking off Florida and Ohio.
Ed Burmila@edburmila.bsky.social · 3d agoThe way we're supposed to listen to this guy 35 years after his one achievement is incredible. Pat Caddell (Carter's Carville) was by 1992 a pariah in the Democratic Party, and he ended up on Brietbart, Fox News, and the Trump campaign. They all do this. You can just stop listening to them.
someone needs to stop her with extreme prejudice
Bill Geerhart@conelrad6401240.bsky.social · 3d agoAnnie Jacobsen's new book really spins George Will's bowtie.
the idiot nuke book was also obsessed with this idea that COG was solely about making sure ((((~the elites~)))) survived the war and not about, yknow, ensuring a government with continuity in order to do governing things for the people within its governance bsky.app/profile/ggro...
Gigi Gronvall@ggronvall.bsky.social · 5d agoSmart take from @progmil.bsky.social "What Jacobsen offers ...is just play-acting. It’s as if someone suddenly woke up to the fact that biological organisms can be deadly and believes that no one else has thought what to do about it. outbreaks." almauroni.substack.com/p/no-one-mak...
also reminder that she's a gutter racist www.theguardian.com/world/2004/j...
It started as a routine flight from Detroit to LA. But what followed would plunge the US into another 9/11 panic
When one woman posted a website account of her fears on a flight with a group of Arab men, a spate of tales about lax security followed. Paul Harris reports.
theguardian.com
The fact that I can query the codebase means I know a lot more about how Thrusty works than, say, Missile Tool Kit.
Cat Hicks@grimalkina.bsky.social · 2w agoI suspect once we figure it out agentic work in software will actually be a huge aid to codebase comprehension This is such a wildly unpopular thought right now but you know what I'm going to pre-register my belief in this possibility
Some news! As many of you know, I've been a Distinguished Research Fellow at @fpri.bsky.social consulting with @aaronstein1.bsky.social on space and missile defense. Today it gets much better: the whole freaking open-source research team is joining FPRI full time. (1/4)
This isn't true, at least not yet. Most generative AI leaves very distinct digital signatures that aren't so hard to spot. That might not be true forever, of course, and things are changing fast ... but I strongly suspect we could tell the difference with relatively early generation image.
Katniss@doraexploradora.bsky.social · 3w agoIn the age of AI, photos are no longer evidence. Beshear needs to be able to speak to him in person or do what dear Mitch would do in these circumstances.
If anyone has the original McConnell photo, I'd be delighted to run it through our photo forensics software (Tungstene) -- although I have no real doubts about it.
Given the navigation warnings that China issued, the range of the SLBM was probably about 7,000 km--more consistent with the JL-2 than the 10,000 km range JL-3. (However, range in US docs is often carefully hedged, i.e. "According to media sources" or "PRC sources claim".)
A few thoughts on China's SLBM test. This isn't as big a deal as everyone is making it out to be. Nuclear weapons states have missiles and they test them.
One of these things is not like the others. Take a deep breath, people.
I very much want the USMNT to defeat Bosnia but either way it is a VICTORY FOR AMERICAN AIRPOWER.
The blogfather — @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social — and I sat down to discuss the Iran-US MoU and why we still can’t find it on a .gov website www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1222...
MOU 404
The US-Iran MOU is humiliating, it was signed at Versailles, and its still not on any government website. In fact, if you try a .gov keyword search [...]
armscontrolwonk.com
After more than fifteen years, I've resigned from the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. 280 characters isn't enough to name all the colleagues who, against all better judgment, became friends. You know who you are — whether you should admit it is a separate question.
These are just fireworks to celebrate the signing of the MOU and the fact that the Strait is very, very open.
This new translation of Clausewitz is 🔥. "Each strives by physical force to compel the other to submit to his will: each endeavours to throw his adversary, and thus render him incapable of further resistance or, where throwing proves taxing, to prevail narrowly on points."
Read Albright's retraction demand, then read @jongambrell.bsky.social's article. 5 ¶s of grievances ("irresponsible," "misleading," "false facts," and a take-down demand) over a fact-check of a Netanyahu claim, citing @odnigov.bsky.social 's assessment that "Iran is not building a nuclear weapon."
This is infuriating, @apnews.com. Iran's HEU is not now, and has never been, "buried under rubble." The Iranians accessed the tunnels in January and then re-buried the entrances as a protective measure in February. They're periodically doing things on site with bulldozers, etc (April).
Shooting at low flying things has this risk -- that's more or less how CENTCOM ended up hitting a neighborhood in Bahrain (twice) with a Patriot interceptor.
Kevin Rothrock@kevinrothrock.me · 2mo agoThis video appears to confirm it was a Russian air-defense missile — not a Ukrainian drone — that blew up that Moscow refinery’s storage tank today, creating the "flying saucer" footage. (This video was shared on Telegram by Russian military expert Yan Matveev.) t.me/arrowsmap/11...
honestly, I think Trump should convert to Islam, just to see how many of them would follow.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoKAITLAN COLLINS: Are you okay with Iran having missiles? SEN. ROGER MARSHALL: I prefer that they not, but they have to defend themselves COLLINS: You think Iran needs to be able to defend itself? MARSHALL: I do, otherwise we turn this into a forever war
has mark dubowitz blown his head off yet or
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoKAITLAN COLLINS: Are you okay with Iran having missiles? SEN. ROGER MARSHALL: I prefer that they not, but they have to defend themselves COLLINS: You think Iran needs to be able to defend itself? MARSHALL: I do, otherwise we turn this into a forever war
Just checking in on that better deal we were promised.
“Trump praised the deal reached with Iran during his visit to the G7 in France and signed a copy of the MOU tonight at Versailles.” GTFO. He really signed it in Versailles?
Ben Shapiro dryly pursues agenda that the Dear Leader cannot fail; the Dear Leader can only be failed.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoBen Shapiro: "This MOU appears to be a disaster that does not achieve any of the signal goals that were set by the administration at the beginning ... in my opinion the vice president, the chief negotiator, has not well served the president"
While the ¶10,11 payments to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz ¶6 are embarrassing, the general approach seems sound -- vague, fraught with pitfalls, could collapse at any time, etc. but that's all to be expected. More fighting won't produce a better outcome. diplomatic.substack.com/p/the-us-ira...
Text of the US/Iran ‘Understanding’
Here is the text of the Memeorandum of Understanding reached by the United States and Iran, according to my transcription of what a senior U.S.
diplomatic.substack.com
For a "formal setting" may I suggest a battleship in the Strait of Hormuz?
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo agoQ: Why not release the text of the Iran deal? TRUMP: Oh, I will Q: Why not release it before Friday? TRUMP: Well, bc I'd like to get a formal setting first. But I have no problem. Here's what it says -- Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. I'll probably have a press conference and read it to you
