Bruno Castanho Silva

@bcastanho.bsky.social

Ass. Prof. of Methods in Empirical Social Research at FU Berlin and EB member @methodsnet.bsky.social Politics, methods, and occasionally memes https://bcastanho.github.io/

📄 New pre-print on SSRN New evidence on a timely question: Does holding anti-democratic leaders legally accountable produce democratic backlash? Contrary to widespread concerns, I find no evidence that accountability increased affective polarisation or reduced support for democracy. 🧵👇

Does Holding Anti-Democratic Leaders Accountable Backfire? Evidence from Bolsonaro's Arrest in Brazil

Whether holding anti-democratic leaders accountable strengthens or weakens democracy remains one of the unresolved questions in contemporary debates about democ

papers.ssrn.com

Puzzled English fans wondering why others root against England are overestimating the importance of questionable general English history/politics and really underestimating the importance of questionable **football-related** English history

Amazing how the English pretend to be all about stiff upper lip and fair play, and are out there flopping like they’re Neymar. Kane was embarrassing in Norway’s first goal, then the other guy falling like a sack of potatoes in the goal that was VAR’d. Pathetic.

Trump has not ruined international football. FIFA has. For decades. Yes, the bluntness of Trump is mindblowing but this is FIFA business as usual. Not only in autocracies. Look at the massive corruption in how Germany became host of the 2006 World Cup. An event we still refer to as Sommermärchen.

Probably my most "oh-in-my-days" take is that if me and my friends survived navigating KaZaA and eMule to listen to music at the impressionable ages of 12-13, then teens today a) should survive YouTube content relatively unscathed and b) will most certainly find workarounds for any ban

Many of you have asked me for a full-blown desktop version of SciLove. Here it is! 👇 My favorite part is the redesigned feed: now features a progress bar plus an article queue so you always know what’s next.

Post nicht verfügbar.

New paper out in the EJPR! Coalition governments delegate international negotiations to single ministers, but their coalition partners are left on the sidelines. I look at when those outsiders use public dissent to constrain ministers.

Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 3mo ago

#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social - Tying the hands of coalition partners in international negotiations: Public dissent and constraining powers - https://cup.org/4mLBmlK - @pitrieger.bsky.social #FirstView

Logo for the European Journal of Political Research displaying the text "EJPR European Journal of Political Research" in cream letters on a blue background, accompanied by the hashtag "#OpenAccess".

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.