Nice post from Elliott here walking through why this screen is not a perfect LV screen but it's useful. The long and short is screening out all people who say they won't vote undersamples those people (lots of them vote) and oversamples people who say they will definitely vote (lots of them don't)

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 2w ago

Likely voters for this year's midterms lean more Democratic than registered voters or all adults, a change from last cycle. Democrats are +9 among self-described likely voters in this month's Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, vs +7 among RVs. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-22...

Are Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party? Fewer identify as Democratic, but most still plan to vote for Democrats. Read the latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/are-jew...

Are Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party?

Recent data shows a significant drop in Jewish identification with the Democratic Party. Is this a temporary blip or a sign of deeper shifts ahead? Explore the numbers and what they mean for 2026.

goodauthority.org

from 2024 to 2025 there was a stunning 8-point drop in the share of Jewish Americans who identified as Democrats, but it is not clear that this will translate into a shift in voting behavior in November. my latest piece for @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/are-jew...

Are Jewish Americans really leaving the Democratic Party?

Recent data shows a significant drop in Jewish identification with the Democratic Party. Is this a temporary blip or a sign of deeper shifts ahead? Explore the numbers and what they mean for 2026.

goodauthority.org

Article in the WSJ today about my piece last week and UMich’s defense. Don’t know how else to put it but their defense of not weighting on partisanship was weak and stubborn. www.wsj.com/economy/cons...

Do We Really Feel This Lousy About the Economy, or Is a Key Survey Broken?

The University of Michigan is pushing back and defending its widely tracked consumer sentiment gauge.

wsj.com

“Americans have been told for at least two decades that they share less and less, while the data show the actual overlap holding roughly steady,” the political scientists Brian Schaffner and Stephen Ansolabehere write.

Opinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized

Americans have been told for at least two decades that they share less and less, while the data show the actual overlap holding roughly steady.

nyti.ms

we wrote a thing based on our book project to offer some hope this 4th of July. if you choose to see it, we have quite a lot in common with our political foes. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...

Opinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized

nytimes.com

We Hate to Break It to You, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized. (Stephen Ansolabehere and @bfschaffner.bsky.social) 🎁Gift article: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...

Opinion | We Hate to Break It to You, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized

nytimes.com

we wrote a thing based on our book project to offer some hope this 4th of July. if you choose to see it, we have quite a lot in common with our political foes. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/04/o...

Opinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized

nytimes.com

A @nytimes.com op-ed on this 250th by political scientists Stephen Ansolabehere & @bfschaffner.bsky.social

Opinion | No One Wants to Hear It, but Maybe We’re Not That Polarized

nytimes.com

Not all popular state politicians are created equal. Andy Beshear stands out for being remarkably popular given the politics of Kentucky. Read the latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social: goodauthority.org/news/not-all...

Not all popular state politicians are created equal

Think you know the 2028 frontrunners? A deeper look at current approval ratings reveals some surprises about the presidential race contenders.

goodauthority.org

somebody should run an adaptation of our inauguration crowd experiment asking Trump supporters what color the water is...

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Trump wanted the Reflecting Pool to be ‘American flag blue.’ Algae is turning it green. www.nbcnews.com/politics/don...

Why are American politics so volatile? Both parties are divided. Older issues divide Republicans by education, while newer ones divide Democrats by race. See the research results here: goodauthority.org/news/why-are...

Why are American politics so volatile?

Both parties are divided. Older issues divide Republicans by education, while newer ones divide Democrats by race.

goodauthority.org

the perspective that "Dems should be Dems" begs the question, but which Dems should they be? goodauthority.org/news/secular...

Secular Democrats are on the rise

Fewer Democrats identify as religious. That’s creating tension with Black voters.

goodauthority.org

Steve Saideman@smsaideman.bsky.social · 2mo ago

There is no tradeoff--the job of Dems is to be Dems, not to try to appeal to a far, far right GOP. As always, asking a Dem to try to split the difference between GOP and Dem is asking them to move to the far right. Let's not. saideman.blogspot.com/2025/09/prof...

Ideological moderation might appeal to conservatives, but it can also rankle liberals. Here are some Democrats that have established moderate credentials. See the breakdown from @bfschaffner.bsky.social. goodauthority.org/news/these-d...

These Democrats have established moderate credentials

Ideological moderation might appeal to conservatives, but it can also rankle liberals in this year's midterms.

goodauthority.org

lots of talk among Democrats about how whether and how much they need to moderate. in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post, i look at which candidates have actually staked out a moderate reputation in their states...one clear standout here 1/3

lots of talk among Democrats about how whether and how much they need to moderate. in a new @goodauth.bsky.social post, i look at which candidates have actually staked out a moderate reputation in their states...one clear standout here 1/3

I don't know what the phrase is when your nephew is a lot like you, but my nephew was in @bfschaffner.bsky.social's methods class this semester and did an interesting study on ideological extremity and politicians raising money and being mean on the internet. tufts-pol.medium.com/who-is-drivi...

Who is driving polarization? The role of ideological extremity in communication and funding

by Fatima Eisa (‘26), Shayna Levy (‘28), Chloe Walker (‘28), and Eliot Wertheimer (‘29)

tufts-pol.medium.com

we recently upgraded the CES shiny apps...most of the improvements are aesthetic, but one notable addition is the ability to see breakdowns of the vote for governor and senate in states with large enough samples! full set of apps are here: tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...

we recently upgraded the CES shiny apps...most of the improvements are aesthetic, but one notable addition is the ability to see breakdowns of the vote for governor and senate in states with large enough samples! full set of apps are here: tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...

sometimes i see a @today.yougov.com poll question and think that the only possible reason for its existence is to settle a bet between two of their employees

Democrats and Republicans disagree on what political violence even is... The crux of the disagreement? Whether the government’s actions can constitute violence. Read why this matters here: goodauthority.org/news/democra...

Democrats and Republicans disagree on what political violence even is

The crux of the disagreement? Whether the government’s actions can constitute violence.

goodauthority.org

earlier this month @tufts.edu senior Miles Kendrick and I fielded a survey with @today.yougov.com to better understand what acts people think are political violence. there are some points of agreement & some clear differences of opinion. goodauthority.org/news/democra...

earlier this month @tufts.edu senior Miles Kendrick and I fielded a survey with @today.yougov.com to better understand what acts people think are political violence. there are some points of agreement & some clear differences of opinion. goodauthority.org/news/democra...

This feels like a pretty significant development that's not likely to reverse.

Brian Schaffner@bfschaffner.bsky.social · 4mo ago

there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

in conjunction with this report, we are also today releasing the data for the 2025 CES common content. includes interviews with 17,000 American adults conducted in late 2025. dig in! doi.org/10.7910/DVN/...

Brian Schaffner@bfschaffner.bsky.social · 4mo ago

there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

there's a new report out from YouGov using CES data to plot trends in partisanship over the past two decades. i've got a piece up today in @goodauth.bsky.social summarizing some key findings. check out both! GA piece: goodauthority.org/news/long-st... YouGov report: yougov.com/en-us/articl...

The long-standing Democratic advantage in party identification is gone

A new report shows how much the partisan landscape has shifted.

goodauthority.org

we've put out the call for teams for the 2026 cooperative election study! be the unsung hero who organizes your colleagues for a module tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...

we've put out the call for teams for the 2026 cooperative election study! be the unsung hero who organizes your colleagues for a module tischcollege.tufts.edu/research-fac...

Most Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenship. Our election survey data reveal some surprising findings. The latest from @bfschaffner.bsky.social, see the data here: goodauthority.org/news/most-am...

Most Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenship

Most Americans don’t see compromise as central to good citizenship. Our election survey data reveal some surprising findings.

goodauthority.org

in 2024, Trump improved most on his vote share in counties that saw the smallest numbers of people moving there. the newest @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab blog post from Toby Winick. tufts-pol.medium.com/trumps-suppo...

Trump’s support increased the most in counties with the fewest transplants

by Toby Winick (class of 2026)

tufts-pol.medium.com