On the one hand the WA primary overstated Dems nationally in 2024, on the other hand it accurately showed what would happen for Dems in WA itself (zoomed left compared to country). So this is 10 points bluer than that when you might actually expect some regression to mean.
Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 13h agoeverything in Washington looks amazing for Dems right now. We'll have to send @electioncord.com to put together an adjusted statewide number, but I'd spot this as at least 10% bluer than 2024 general right now, if not more.
McMorrow being a spoiler would be very funny I have to say.
MLC@chicyph80.bsky.social · 14h agoNYT now saying neither candidate is overperfomlng their benchmarks….🤔
Michigan has always had a ton of error but primary polling in this era is particularly tough because of lack of partisan benchmarks that help center GOP vs Dem polling.
mtsw@mtsw.bsky.social · 14h agoif nothing else another big night for the "polling in the no-one-picks-up-their-phone-anymore Era is cooked" take
Starting to be concerned Francesca Hong would also hate the one day a year single people are legally allowed to have sex.
There is not a majority of voters with good views on all issues.
Mikhail Gorbaechev@mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 2d agoI personally know voters like this! I have talked to many voters like this while knocking doors. They are absolutely winnable without a single policy concession as long as you make mouth noises that gesture at them being decent people.
I personally know voters like this! I have talked to many voters like this while knocking doors. They are absolutely winnable without a single policy concession as long as you make mouth noises that gesture at them being decent people.
Mikhail Gorbaechev@mikhailgorbaechev.bsky.social · 2d ago"I think beef tallow is more natural than seed oils, which I don't really understand what those are, but I heard they were bad in a YouTube video. Also can I sell you some Herbalife stuff?" is a shockingly large number of lower-middle and working class voters.
Wow people have deranged responses to parents taking their baby to a movie theater apparently. These are specifically tailored screenings for parents to bring their kids and the volume is lower. They're great.
Miles Klee 🦉@milesklee.bsky.social · 2d agois there some future competitive advantage with college admissions if you deafened your child to Ludwig Göransson
Dispatch from Maine: the collins ads are relentless. Honestly makes me bullish vis a vis the polls. Only one party on air and ad effects fade fast. That will change. Also the ads aren’t that good. They’re all about Platner and saying Troy Jackson supported him.
Not exactly the point here but I'm curious what a liberal Volcker would look like if that were possible?
George Pearkes@peark.es · 5d agoThe funny thing about the long end continuing to go if not berserk than at least something related is that if Warsh had loudly advocated for hikes as soon as he was confirmed instead of trying to dance around them then the long end would be down not up.
The funny thing about the long end continuing to go if not berserk than at least something related is that if Warsh had loudly advocated for hikes as soon as he was confirmed instead of trying to dance around them then the long end would be down not up.
Abdul is going to win the Michigan primary by a lot and I feel like nobody will update their views about the impact of money in politics just like they didn’t update their views when Bloomberg couldn’t buy the Dem presidential nomination.
Kat Abughazaleh@katmabu.bsky.social · 6d agoAIPAC may have bought our election in Illinois, but we're not going to let that happen in Michigan. 5 days left to make them panic. Vote for Abdul on or before August 4th.
Working on a theory: the generic ballot is understating Dems because people hate generic Dems more than specific Dems right now, which is the inverse from normal, and for Republicans people like generic Republicans right now more than specific ones.
Ossoff and cooper are going to walk it. Republicans hate Paxton. Add it up and I’d love to be the owner of television stations in Maine, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan.
Dj@djsoke.bsky.social · 6d agoI unironically believe Talarico is ahead rn, but Paxton is broke & would get out-raised by a lemonade stand The R PACs are in a standoff trying to make the others step in bc they *hate* Paxton, but (a lot of) $$$ will eventually flow against JT. Need to see how he holds up then
I've been doing a lot of research into gambling in America (should be much more heavily regulated but the discourse around it has reached moral panic levels) and one thing that comes through in the economic research is that sports betting and Robinhood are pretty big substitutes.
Michael Santoli@michaelsantoli.bsky.social · 6d agoRobinhood breaks down growth in client assets between new deposits and market gain/loss. Client assets were +$90.1B from Q2 2025. Of that, $75.7B was net deposits. Net market impact was $14.4B - which equals a 5.1% gain from Q2 '25 asset levels. Over that span, S&P 500 was up 20%. Churn and burn.
This is an excellent thread from George. I hope we continue to see a growing split on the left between the bucolic/degrowth environmental movement and the pro-energy/decarbonization environmental movement.
George Pearkes@peark.es · last wk.Look I don’t mind a bit of Glonzo on data centers but I want to make one thing clear: anyone campaigning against transmission is a climate denialist and/or a wrecker.
There is no context where the current system (which has under built transmission for about 50 years) adding transmission is anything but good. Good for climate, good for rate payers, and opposed only by local land owners whose interest should be ignored as much as possible.
Dave Merritt@butwhatifitsall.bsky.social · last wk.Transmission isn’t always a good thing.
Look I don’t mind a bit of Glonzo on data centers but I want to make one thing clear: anyone campaigning against transmission is a climate denialist and/or a wrecker.
Yashar Ali 🐘@yasharali.bsky.social · last wk.1. Two country music legends, Willie Nelson and Tanya Tucker, are speaking out about different pieces of the same enormous industrial buildout in Texas. Tanya Tucker is speaking out against the massive transmission lines crossing private land to accommodate the state’s surging electricity demand.
All the AI companies with their open letters are just screaming we’re losers who are losing to Anthropic.
to put it very mildly "there'd better be a Very Good Reason to include non white people in stuff" is not really making the point Wilson thinks she is
kambole campbell@kambole.bsky.social · last wk.this is nonsense! and kinda insulting!
Abdul El Sayed being a landlord in India and the UAE is pretty funny.
Top 10 reasons sentiment departs from underlying numbers: 1. The survey is broken 2. There is a secular decline in sentiment 3. The Housing Tilt problem newsletter.mikekonczal.com/p/why-afford... 4. The cost of money 5. Underlying numbers include more than just one year and your regressions don't.
Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio)@kleinman.bsky.social · last wk.Not sure how to quantify this but I think a key reason why the economic sentiment departs so strongly from the underlying numbers is that the underlying numbers are goosed by spending on AI, which doesn't benefit most people
The thing I like about Troy Jackson is that his campaign is about how Susan Collins is bad because she’s a Republican and not about how Democrats are bad. Real improvement over Platner.
One thing that happened over the past two years is the survey broke and this persistent downward trend is fake. www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...
Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
natesilver.net
Will Stancil@whstancil.bsky.social · 2w agoI've seen it before but every time I do I'm kind of staggered by just how bananas this chart is. Starting in mid-2021 or so, something began making people unhappier with the economy than you'd expect, and continued to get worse and worse nonstop until the present day, spanning all income brackets.
Also he's meeting the moment heartlandsignal.com/2026/06/04/c...
Radio Free America: Can Jon Ossoff be the American Péter Magyar?
Jon Ossoff is hitting Magyar-esque notes on corruption and the mafia. Why Georgia's senator, not Hungary's playbook, points the way for Democrats.
heartlandsignal.com
Joel Wertheimer@wertwhile.bsky.social · 2w agoThe reason I think Ossoff is the frontrunner is that when he wins by say 10 or something big in a true swing state in November, that contingent looking for a mod white man is going to ask why Pete or Newsom or Beshear or Shapiro is better and there's no good answer.
The Ossoff number is an outlier at this point (though I do think he's the honest frontrunner) but I do think Pete + Newsom + Ossoff + Beshear + Shapiro as 61% of the 87% of decideds its a pretty good indicator of where the Dem primary electorate is for 2028.
Poll Tracker 📊@polltracker.bsky.social · 2w ago2028 Democratic presidential primary (Emerson): Pete Buttigieg 19% Gavin Newsom 17% Jon Ossoff 13% AOC 13% Kamala Harris 8% Andy Beshear 7% Josh Shapiro 5% JB Pritzker 3% Ro Khanna 2% Someone else 3% Undecided 13% 7/19-7/20 emersoncollegepolling.com/july-2026-na...
Would be ironic if the spacex ipo was Elon flying too close to the sun.
Luke Kawa@ljkawa.bsky.social · 2w agoTesla having to be the “real” company bc SpaceX is the publicly traded Elon vibes shop is really asking a lot (perhaps too much!) of it