Isn't part of the polling miss in MI also the fact that El-Sayed pulled a Trump and was flooding the zone with bad internal or allied polls that overstated his support? This was talked about widely in the run-up to the voting.
David Darmofal
@daviddarmofal.bsky.social
Political scientist. Political behavior + methods. Spatial analysis. Speaking in a personal capacity. Opinions expressed are my own.
Mike Rogers, a former U.S. congressman who pushed false claims of a stolen 2024 election in Michigan and praised Trump’s recent primetime tirade against elections, won Michigan’s Republican primary election for an open U.S. Senate seat Tuesday. www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/...
Mike Rogers, GOP convert to election denial, wins Michigan GOP Senate primary
If elected, Rogers will flip a key seat and be another Trump ally in the Senate who could help to pass more voter suppression measures, including the stalled SAVE America Act.
democracydocket.com
Says the man who engaged in massive fraud.
FactPost@factpostnews.bsky.social · 19m agoSen. Rick Scott: Medicaid is the most foolish set-up program ever.
I don't think folks know how absolutely catastrophic it's going to be next year if Republicans win the House and/or the Senate because truly massive Trump cuts to the safety net are going into effect then.
FactPost@factpostnews.bsky.social · 16m agoNevada voters on Trump's economy: You got to decide whether you're going to pay rent or feed your family. It's getting tough out here for everyone... Everything is more expensive now since Trump has been in office.
Well, classic contemporary leftism, since El-Sayed isn’t DSA. But yes this also holds true for the DSA as well.
Yep. Cori Bush literally does not know what a marginal tax rate is (watch the interview where this is clear), but our national political press worshipped her for sleeping out on the steps of the Capitol. Because covering performance is easier for today’s press than covering substance.
Justice for Justin (STILL!)@ish-not.bsky.social · 2h agoCori Bush’s loss gives me hope that we may actually have a slate of legislators set and ready to ACTUALLY WORK… We have lost so much …wasting time and money on folks who are big on talk- low on WORK. It is going to take SOOOO much WORK to get back to baseline. Right choice was made.
Thank you Oakland County! It’s the honor of a lifetime to be your democratic nominee.
Basically places are choosing Democratic nominees that fit their state/district. The problem is that our current crappy political press distorts what’s going on so that any time a leftist wins, it’s blaring coverage & any time a non-leftist wins, which is the majority of the time, it’s silence.
Klobuchar is going to put up Saddam numbers in November.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2h agoEvery single Republican candidate for governor of Minnesota (including Mike Lindell!) makes clear that if Trump tried another Operation Metro Surge in the Twin Cities, they would support his efforts to brutalize residents
They are truly scared of all Muslims. Like, deathly afraid.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3h agoJD Vance: "We don't want the next administration, whoever -- god forbid you're gonna have President El-Sayed in three years ... "
as noted yesterday, Trump has now come around to treating an Iranian toll system covering the Strait of Hormuz as a given. Hard to overstate the level of strategic failure. US started the war purely as a war of choice and ends up dramatically empowering Iran and given the Iranian govt big wins.
Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social · 2h agoReuters: Iran wants fees of 5%-7% of the price of cargo from ships using the strait; Oman wants 3%. "Making fees voluntary, at least nominally, could be a way out of the impasse, although an implied threat of Iranian attacks could mean shippers would be unlikely to risk transit without paying."
The data is in and the evidence is clear: Closed primaries are suppressing the growing Latino voters voice far more than Voter ID laws possibly could. www.sacbee.com/opinion/arti...
California’s Latino voters matter — and some insiders want to shut them out | Opinion
The current push to repeal an open California primary deserves to be called what it is: voter suppression.
sacbee.com
Trump’s political capital is rapidly declining.
David Darmofal@daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 2h agoTrump humiliated as his endorsed candidate loses to opponent who dropped out of the race Thomas J Smith, a Republican running in Michigan’s 8th congressional district, dropped out of the race last month but remained on the ballot
Trump humiliated as his endorsed candidate loses to opponent who dropped out of the race Thomas J Smith, a Republican running in Michigan’s 8th congressional district, dropped out of the race last month but remained on the ballot
Trump humiliated as his endorsed candidate loses to opponent who dropped out
Thomas J Smith, a Republican running in Michigan’s 8th congressional district, dropped out of the race last month but remained on the ballot
the-independent.com
I’ve been consistent in having no use for antisemites or populists so El-Sayed is a no go for me in terms of donating. Not going to support someone who intentionally lies about policy, including blaming Jews for people’s problems.
It’s interesting because while Urbana is pretty liberal, Champaign, IL has a Republican Mayor.
Uncrewed@uncrewed.bsky.social · 17h agoAlso looks like the DSA will FLIP the Ann Arbor Mayor's office, with former DSA State Representative Yousef Rabhi destroying Democratic incumbent Christopher Taylor: Rabhi- 63.5% Taylor (Inc)- 36.5%
Also looks like the DSA will FLIP the Ann Arbor Mayor's office, with former DSA State Representative Yousef Rabhi destroying Democratic incumbent Christopher Taylor: Rabhi- 63.5% Taylor (Inc)- 36.5%
Q: Director Patel, any update on the Guthrie case? KASH PATEL: *walks away*
I hope Abdul El-Sayed can go back now to the mindset of being a scientist in pursuit of the truth instead of a populist who lies about policy, but I highly doubt he will.
I wonder how much of the polling error in MI was due to pollsters not being able to accurately poll Black voters? Remember that polls in SC Democratic presidential primaries always understate the eventual support for the candidate supported by Black voters for that reason.
🚨Save the date🚨 Join the Elections Research Center on Friday, Nov. 20, for the 2026 Election Symposium aat the Discovery Building. Hear leading experts unpack the midterm results, key races, issues, vote patterns and Wisconsin’s battleground role. 🔗http://go.wisc.edu/3EOJM3
Cori Bush getting annihilated is outstanding for pretty much everyone who cares about effective representation and fewer cranks in congress Also bodes well for the prospect of ejecting other cranks like Chevalier in the next cycle or two IMO
As this article notes, Tom Daschle now lives in South Carolina.
SC’s Johnson trailed in fundraising before Dem primary. Is he turning the tide?
Jermaine Johnson trailed in dollars raised leading up to the primary. Although he had lots of small dollar donations, he trailed in bringing in high-dollar contributions.
thestate.com
Including South Carolina, where polling shows a tied race for an open seat with every Republican hugging Trump as closely as possible and Democrats have one of their top Senate candidates in @drannieandrews.com
Bill Kristol@billkristolbulwark.bsky.social · 3h agoSo MI's at a bit greater risk But GA, NC & ME look good, and 3 of 4 in OH, AK, IA, & TX looks doable, given the national environment. So I think Democrats are at least 50-50 to take the Senate. And other states not much discussed (e.g., KS) could well be in play. www.thebulwark.com/p/its-still-...