Tadeas Cely

@celytadeas.bsky.social

Postdoc in political science (Aarhus‬ University) Working on ideology, polarization, and how to save democracy from ourselves https://tadeascely.github.io/

This paper is now online and #OpenAccess. While you are at @poqjournal.bsky.social, you can also check out our article with @marcjacob.bsky.social and @seanjwestwood.bsky.social on accountability for democratic norm violations in races for different political offices: doi.org/10.1093/poq/...

doi.org

Political Science Department at Northwestern University@polisciatnu.bsky.social · 3w ago

New article out with @poqjournal.bsky.social 🚨 Not Your Mama’s Ideology (But Close): Modest Generational Differences in Ideological Alignment in Postcommunist Europe Ph.D. candidate Matej Jungwirth ( @matejjung.bsky.social ) @lenkahrbkova.bsky.social & @celytadeas.bsky.social

This paper examines whether generational change in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is associated with shifts in how political attitudes align along the conventional economic–cultural left–right dimension. Because cohorts in the region were socialized under different political–economic systems, CEE provides a setting to assess whether younger generations display patterns of attitude alignment that differ from those of older cohorts. Using pooled European Social Survey data (2004–2023) and original surveys from Czechia, Hungary, and Lithuania, we combine an age–period–cohort analysis of left–right alignment with a network analysis of associations among thirteen salient issues. We find modest generational differences in the early 2000s, but these diminish over time, with all cohorts exhibiting similarly low levels of left–right alignment. Economic and cultural attitudes remain weakly connected, and EU- and foreign-policy issues often form separate clusters. The findings indicate that generational replacement has not produced a shift toward a more conventional left–right organization of belief systems in the region.

📢 I’m hiring 2 three-year postdocs at Dept of Political Science, @au.dk! Come work with me on The Politics of Shaming and Shamelessness — a new project on elite rhetoric, emotions, norms, hostility and political violence. Deadline: 31 August 2026 Start: Dec 2026–Feb 2027 Please share widely! 🙏

2 three-year postdocs in political communication and political psychology at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University

Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

international.au.dk

New in Nature: LLMs give "the party line" in the languages of authoritarian regimes. This works when they control the media, which feeds pretraining data. We show more state control over the media means less critical LLMs. 6 studies spanning 38 languages & 13 models. Details ↓

Scatter plot of 38 countries plus China showing the proportion of LLM responses favorable to the regime in the local language vs. World Press Freedom Index score. Lower press freedom predicts more regime-favorable responses; all production models pooled.

Thrilled to announce my paper with @dianamejordan.bsky.social & sky-less Trent Ollerenshaw is now published open-access at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. In a (very) large replication & extension, we show that design effects of repeated measure experiments are nonzero but typically small. Thread:

Abstract for "New Evidence and Design Considerations for Repeated Measure Experiments in Survey Research" by Diana Jordan, Trent Ollerenshaw, and Andrew Trexler, published in the American Political Science Review. The abstract text reads: "We re-examine recent influential claims that repeated measure experimental designs offer large precision gains without biasing treatment effect estimates in survey research. We test these claims by experimentally varying the design of six classic political science experiments across three distinct large samples of U.S. adults (total N = 13,163). In contrast to prior evidence, we observe consistent attenuation of treatment effects in repeated measure designs. However, we show in simulations that this average design effect is small enough, and the precision gains large enough, that we recommend repeated measure designs for broad application—though (large-N) post-only designs may be preferable when research priorities include estimating the precise magnitude of a treatment effect. We additionally explore how several design considerations affect the bias-precision trade-off, such as within-subject versus between-groups designs, the relative separation of repeated measures within single surveys, and differences in respondent characteristics across sample types."
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 3mo ago

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - New Evidence and Design Considerations for Repeated Measure Experiments in Survey Research - https://cup.org/4sVtFLj - @dianamejordan.bsky.social, TRENT OLLERENSHAW & @atrexler.com #FirstView

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📢 New publication! 📢 So happy to see this paper finally out @epsrjournal.bsky.social ! Looking at public perceptions of party positions in 29 elections across 20 European countries, I test whether populist radical parties are seen as more moderate when they are part of a government coalition. 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

European Political Science Review@epsrjournal.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🆕 Ruling and reigning in? 👑 @sofiamarini.bsky.social looks at whether public perceptions of the moderation of #PopulistRadical parties change when in a #GovernmentCoalition and whether this is impacted by #Partisanship, allowing for better understanding of #PartyMainstreaming 🤷

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An analysis of politicians’ public statements reveals that personal insults don’t increase donations or the probability of reelection—but ad hominem attacks do increase media attention, likely the end goal for an emerging subset of politicians. In PNAS Nexus: https://ow.ly/VSz150Ywsrj

Most legislators do not make many personal attacks, but there are extreme outliers, with some attacking at more than 10 times the overall mean. Attacks are also 3 times more common on social media than in speeches, press releases, and newsletters.

Eventful weekend! In 🇨🇿, a pro-democracy grassroots movement showed striking strength. Around 250,000 people mobilized across diverse views and party allegiances (though mostly critical of the current government), united in their commitment to democracy. www.expats.cz/czech-news/a...

Hundreds of thousands fill Prague's Letná Plain to protest Czech government

An estimated 250,000 people gathered in Letná on Saturday as organizers warned of democratic backsliding and criticized the Babiš government.

expats.cz

New short paper w @jkalla.bsky.social ! Candidates gain from moderation, but less than many theories expect. Many conclude voters must not care about issues. This is wrong. Small *average* effects mask large effects on specific issues & are consistent with widespread issue-based voting 🧵

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🔥 POSTDOC POSITIONS ON CHILDREN'S POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION 🔥 Wanna understand young people's beliefs about political leadership, politics, and power? Then this is your chance! I'm looking for two 2-year postdocs to join my ERC-funded research project @au.dk international.au.dk/about/profil...

2 two-year postdocs on children’s political socialization at Aarhus University - Vacancy at Aarhus University

Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

international.au.dk

🧵on my new paper "Synthetic personas distort the structure of human belief systems" w Roberto Cerina I'm v excited about... 🚨 Do synthetic samples look like human samples? We compare 28 LLMs to the 2024 General Social Survey (GSS) to find out + develop host of diagnostics...

Do ordinary Republicans and Democrats really avoid each other in everyday life? In a new working paper with Delia Baldassarri, we present descriptive and experimental evidence to challenge the view that partisanship drives the formation of social relationships. osf.io/preprints/so... 1/15

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📰While I read all sorts of bizarre depictions of the Davos speech in American media, I’ve got to love the simplicity of Czech public radio. The headline reads: Ungrateful Canada, Denmark, and Europe on the wrong path. In Davos, Trump scolded the world, praising only himself.

I ran a simulated social media experiment with 1450 Republicans to test different fact-checking interventions. AI produced the largest decrease in engagement with Trump misinformation, outperforming independent fact-checkers and doing so far more consistently than Community Notes.

LSE US Politics and Policy blog - USAPP@lseusablog.bsky.social · 10mo ago

AI fact-checks may be the best way to reduce Republicans’ engagement with online political misinformation finds Isolde Hegemann of @lsegovernment.bsky.social blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/20...