Fifteen years ago, I got my dream job writing for MLSsoccer. Last week, that came to an end. I'm off on my own, and it's time to build something new – with a little help from all of you. tacticsfreezone.ghost.io/an-end-to-my...

En route to Houston for @americansoccerinsights.com summit. Really looking forward to catching up with some old faces.

In the wake of FBref's defacto death, I saw a lot of posts suggesting alternate data sources. Unfortunately, many of them focus exclusively on men's soccer. To measure what options remain for woso, I conducted a survey of the most popular FBref alternatives. What I found is disappointing: 🧵

The best thing about LLMs in data science is that nobody forgets to label their axes anymore.

When your step count is larger than your sample size. Ahead of the election, I walked 65 km around my electoral district and took a picture of every political lawn sign. www.centralwinger.com/p/getting-st...

So if Distance is flat, and Sprints are up, that means ... Walking must also be up? There has to be some sort of reciprocal change to the ensure balance. I'm having a very difficult time believing this data, especially after the inflation of stoppage time added minutes.

John Burn-Murdoch@jburnmurdoch.ft.com · last yr.

NEW with @simonkuper.bsky.social: The prevailing narrative around increased injuries and player workload in elite football is wrong. Players don’t play any more football than in the past. What has changed is a sharp rise in intensity of play. Not more minutes, but each minute exerts more load.

We’re hiring for a very unique Data Coordinator contracting role. jobs.smartrecruiters.com/MLSE3/744000...

Data Coordinator, Biomechanics and Computer Vision

Company Description: At Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Partnership (MLSE), we are committed to creating an inclusive workplace that is representative of our community and where all employees fe...

jobs.smartrecruiters.com

We're talking football! Well kinda. @centralwinger.com asked if anyone was interested in explaining The Zoo model, so I figured I'd give it a go. thebucketless.wordpress.com/2025/04/01/e...

Explaining The Zoo

Over on his soccer substack, Devin Pleuler has brought up The Zoo model a couple times while admitting that he doesn’t fully understand how it works. The Zoo was the winning entry to BDB 2020…

thebucketless.wordpress.com

First blog post in a while. Tracking data research probably wasn’t worth it until recently. And some unexpected utility of the Hungarian algorithm. www.centralwinger.com/p/tracking-d...

Tracking Data was a Red Herring

It's not anymore.

centralwinger.com

Lucasfilm should have hired @mikeduncan.bsky.social to do a Revolutions-style accompanying podcast for Andor. Such a missed opportunity.

Is there a conceptual issue with performing a bayesian update on xG measurements after a shot? The outcome is pretty useful information, and it's a mathematically valid approach. I assume someone has already tried this?

This is awesome!

mark thompson@markposts.bsky.social · 2y ago

Been having fun* recently** with the body pose data that MLSE made available: github.com/mlsedigital/... Stars on the graphs are a 'phase detection' function for various types of joints *Not always fun **getting ill just after New Year didn't help productivity

I built 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗺𝗹𝗶𝘁-𝘀𝗼𝗰𝗰𝗲𝗿, a custom React component for Streamlit for working with soccer tracking data. And a blog post on 𝗕𝗶𝗴 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝗧𝗶𝗻𝘆 𝗧𝗲𝗮𝗺𝘀

Big Data, Tiny Teams

Introducing streamlit-soccer and some thoughts on team tools

centralwinger.com

First search term of the 2025 (and my parental leave) was “baby ate cat food”, so we’re off to a good start.

The theory here is that some kind of basic property of “goal probability” is “option-ness” open.substack.com/pub/absolute...

Options have Value

Zone-reads, pick 'n rolls, cut-backs

open.substack.com

Big Chances. Gone too soon?

Let's Bring Back Big Chances

Entropy and a Unified Model of Goal Probability

centralwinger.com

🏃‍♂️⏪ 🏃‍♀️ 𝐀𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧 𝐒𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐫 It's been over a year now since I was invited to present my 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 metric to a small group of people at a SkillCorner event in Dallas, TX. I've finally put some effort into writing a blog on it! unravelsports.github.io/2024/12/12/p...

We're looking for a 𝗙𝘂𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗿 on a 12-month contract help us build team performance tools across multiple sports.

Full Stack Developer

Company Description: At Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment Partnership (MLSE), we are committed to creating an inclusive workplace that is representative of our community and where all employees fe...

jobs.smartrecruiters.com

These are some of my favourite "tricks" that I've picked up over the last few years that have been particularly useful in soccer analytics.

Béziers, Bivariates, and Beyond

Some Tricks I Wish I Knew Earlier

centralwinger.com

A football formulation of the fermi paradox – in blog post! Where are the new ideas?

Unexpected Origins and the Fermi Paradox

Can foundational soccer ideas achieve escape velocity?

centralwinger.com

Really cool that these sort of jobs are starting to be earnestly posted and advertised as opposed to purely insider appointment. And posted salary range! The times are changing.

Eamon Dunlavey on LinkedIn: Assistant Coach & Lead Analyst - DC Soccer LLC dba D.C. United

D.C. United is looking to add a Assistant Coach/Lead Analyst. Anyone interested in applying feel free to reach out to me with any…

linkedin.com

Enjoyed speaking with the folks at Analytics FC. I haven't spoken a whole lot online about my new role. It's exciting to be working across multiple sports. Learning a bunch.

Analytics FC@analyticsfc.bsky.social · 2y ago

New Podcast Episode 🎙️ ⚽ New host Chris Gill welcomes MLSE 's Devin Pleuler for a deep chat about football data. The pod also covers figuring out player roles and positions, and how Devin thinks about and decides on new research projects. Listen here: soundcloud.com/analytics-fc...

New post (!) – on xG, rebounds, conditional probability, and the need for more storytelling. There are still a lot of problems with how we use this model.

Penalties and Conditional Probability

Expected Goals still need storytelling.

centralwinger.com

New (first) post on the Central Winger substack. With thoughts on Player Similarity, problems with current approaches, and a path forward.

Substituting Similarity

Summary statistics are problematic for comparing players

open.substack.com

I hear people are harking for a former time 😎

I miss the old days of Soccer Analytics twitter, so I'm going to start writing some occasional thoughts again.

Central Winger | Devin Pleuler | Substack

Occasional thoughts on Sports Analytics. Click to read Central Winger, by Devin Pleuler, a Substack publication. Launched 20 hours ago.

centralwinger.com