Great thread on Soviet and Russian imperialism & Western failure to recognise it for what it is & oppose it accordingly.

Gavril Ducu 🇷🇴 🇩🇪 🇺🇸 🇳🇱 🇪🇺 🇺🇦@ducugavril.nafoforum.org · 5d ago

I have been reading Amara Graps’ latest piece on the Soviet takeover of the Baltic states. It is an extraordinary piece of historical work, but it left me thinking about something that bothers me for a long time. nafoforum.org/magazi...

If Trump wanted to help Ukraine, he could right now. He could send weapons such as Patriot interceptors, he could sanction Russian companies and those who do business with them--immediately. There is nothing stopping him except for the fact that he doesnt want to. Why is that?

Totally agree - I have argued in favour of providing fighter cover, at least over western Ukraine, & helping Ukraine to increase its deep strike capability, for >2 years: www.cer.eu/publications... . Russia shouldn't be allowed to respond to UA successes by pounding UA civilians.

Does it matter if Ukraine loses?

Ukraine is retreating and Russia is advancing, militarily and politically. Western leaders seem to underestimate both the impact of Ukraine’s defeat and the West’s ability to prevent it.

cer.eu

Chatham House@chathamhouse.org · last wk.

Ukraine’s air defence faces a crisis with Russia’s missile and drone production outstripping Ukraine’s ability to shoot them down. Europe can help now by providing fighter cover, or delivering more offensive weapons.

“The objective is not to cut China off from technology forever,” @sandertordoir.bsky.social of @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social said in an interview. “The objective is to show that Germany has teeth, to remind Beijing that China also has critical dependencies on Europe.”

If the Ukrainian government and the Rada do everything needed to align with the EU acquis, the promised EU membership should not be delayed. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

An extremely important statement of principle. Trump's willingness to abandon this in relation to Ukraine was a shocking departure from the longstanding US position on sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Sven-Erik Volberg@volberg.bsky.social · 2w ago

OTD 86 years ago today, the U.S. issued the Welles Declaration—refusing to recognize the illegal Soviet occupation of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Srating that sovereignty cannot be extinguished by illegal military occupation 🧵 1/4

We’d like to thank Pedro Serrano who joined @cerianbond.bsky.social yesterday at our @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social / @euinuk.bsky.social event to look back on his career and reflect on how the EEAS has evolved since its formation, and how the EU-UK relationship has changed and continues to develop.

#Ukraine cannot rely on the strong moral case for letting it into the EU without also showing that it is ready to act like a normal EU member-state. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

#Ukraine’s accession ought to precipitate some long-needed reforms of EU cohesion spending and the common agricultural policy. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

Seems like the Trump administration, not Europe, is doing a pretty good job of ending Western civilisation. But this is a reminder to European governments who were relieved at how well NATO's Ankara summit went, that the US is anything but a reliable ally at present.

Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 3w ago

The State Department has just put out a tender, offering funding of up to $3 million to European organizations who want to fight against "Supra-national institutions" - presumably the EU - and governments who seek to regulate the internet and end Western Civilization. www.state.gov/drl-nofo-dev...

This seems to me a bad move at a time when Ukraine has been having battlefield success. Fedorov has a high reputation, not only in the West but in UA, has been effective at getting innovative tech deployed, & is laser-focused on increasing the human & material cost of the war to Russia.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com · 3w ago

⚡️Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov after military leadership meeting, source says. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has been offered to become Ukraine's next defense minister, a lawmaker from the governing Servant of the People party told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity.

This seems to me like a bad move at a time when Ukraine has been having battlefield success. Fedorov has a high reputation, not only in the West but in UA, & has been effective at getting innovative tech deployed, & laser-focused on increasing the human & material cost of the war to Russia.

The Kyiv Independent@kyivindependent.com · 3w ago

⚡️Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov after military leadership meeting, source says. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko has been offered to become Ukraine's next defense minister, a lawmaker from the governing Servant of the People party told the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity.

Given his behaviour as foreign minister, I'm surprised it wasn't Gazprom. Although given Gazprom's financial situation, I guess BYD looks like a better proposition.

Finbarr Bermingham@fbermingham.bsky.social · 3w ago

Viktor Orban's long time foreign minister has joined BYD! Péter Szijjártó has resigned from Parliament to join Chinese car giant BYD as the executive responsible for the company's external relations and the development of new business divisions. Via Viktória Serdült on X

Ukraine’s comparative advantages in some economic sectors threaten vested interests in a number of member-states. That should not block eventual EU membership. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

#UkraineWar & #EUEnlargement - #Ukraine's #EU accession process: Will #Kyiv ever be "one of us"?, by @cerianbond.bsky.social | @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social www.pubaffairsbruxelles.eu/opinion-anal...

Ukraine's EU accession process: Will Kyiv ever be "one of us"? - PubAffairs Bruxelles

Although the EU and Ukraine have opened accession negotiations, full membership is still far away. Ukraine and the EU must implement necessary reforms, while the EU must find a quicker way to respond ...

pubaffairsbruxelles.eu

The #EU & #Ukraine have opened accession negotiations, but full membership is still far away. The EU must respond faster to the geopolitical imperative of keeping Ukraine in its camp. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

My new piece for @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social : Ukraine can't become a full member of the EU without doing all its homework, but the EU can't leave it in limbo until it has finished. Both sides need some creativity & flexibility - & an appreciation of where their interests lie.

Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 3w ago

The #EU & #Ukraine have opened accession negotiations, but full membership is still far away. The EU must respond faster to the geopolitical imperative of keeping Ukraine in its camp. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/mTvZFnR

Whether the Tech Sovereignty Package will substantially mitigate risk is an open question - the package would still leave Europe open to enormous economic and social disruption. 🆕 @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zach-meyers.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/BmVr2wP

Excellent piece for @elisabettaco.bsky.social to sign off with, as she leaves @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social for @agoraew.bsky.social . In short, allowing European heavy industry to delay cuts to emissions won't help long-term competitiveness.

Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 4w ago

While worries about the EU’s global competitiveness have taken centre stage at recent EU leaders’ summits, Europe is split over whether it should stay the course on carbon pricing. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @elisabettaco.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/iYAV6yt

Good piece by independent analyst and former @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow Megan Ferrando on what the EU should do to help Lebanon.

Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · 4w ago

Megan Ferrando examines how the EU’s strong humanitarian & state-building support for #Lebanon has not been matched by diplomatic influence, limiting its ability to shape the conditions for a lasting ceasefire and regional stability. 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight: buff.ly/Rtkj8SF

NATO's Ankara summit declaration is an improvement on The Hague declaration in 2025, particularly in acknowledging that Ukraine contributes to transatlantic security. But will people remember these words, or Trump threatening to invade Greenland & banning trade w Spain? www.nato.int/en/about-us/...

“Brexit has cost the UK institutional access and influence.” @cerianbond.bsky.social examines how the UK’s security interests remain closely aligned with the EU’s, even as #Brexit has reduced its institutional access and say, in the CER's essay collection. buff.ly/DBxi0Yw

Just spoke to BBC World News about Ukraine's need for interceptor missiles. Russia's terror attacks on civilians aren't as strategically important as UA strikes on RU oil & gas facilities & defence firms, but of course Zelenskyy wants to stop them. Problem is not enough production in US or Europe.

Important piece on Russia's constant efforts to undermine Western democracies - including the UK. Successive governments have done too little, both defensively and offensively, to make it less attractive for Russia to keep doing this.

The Citizens@the-citizens.bsky.social · last mo.

The Kremlin's corrosion campaign relies on ordinary people doing ordinary things — and the ordinariness is the point.

Congratulations to @thomasmaddock.bsky.social, Clara Marina O'Donnell fellow at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, on a very good piece on the need for the EU & Turkiye to improve ties, in the interests of both of them. (reposted because of a glitch with the link)

Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · last mo.

A new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @thomasmaddock.bsky.social sets out what steps both sides can take to improve ties. 🇪🇺 🇹🇷 Read here: buff.ly/GSdO3WI

I have been making a similar point for some years: if Putin says Russia is at war with NATO, it doesn't matter if NATO says it isn't at war with Russia: they are at war. How you fight the war is a different matter, but if you keep pretending you're at peace, you're in trouble.

Kristian Kiehling@kristiankiehling.bsky.social · last mo.

"If one party is at war with another, and the other party does not realize it is at war, the party who knows it's at war almost always has the advantage and usually wins." sfg.media/en/a/russia-...

“To go from being the sort of number one person in the government and in the system, to one of a number of vice presidents of the Commission, may not be the easiest transition,” said @cerianbond.bsky.social, deputy director of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social. www.politico.eu/article/eeas...

Paris and Berlin push to make EU foreign policy great — somehow

Governments have differing views on what the EEAS should look like and what it should do. But France is taking the lead on opening the debate.

politico.eu

Plenty of good quotes from the work of my @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social colleague @sandertordoir.bsky.social & Brad Setser on China Shock 2.0 & its challenges.

Wester van Gaal@westervangaal.bsky.social · last mo.

€31bn in 2023 alone "As far as Germany and the car industry is concerned, comparable sums of money were available for reinvestment in the form of record-breaking profits. But rather than being plowed back into much needed new investment, they were paid out to shareholders in the form of dividends."

In 2016 hardly anyone in the Leave campaign paid any attention to Brexit's possible effects on Northern Ireland, despite warnings from John Major and Tony Blair. Where do things stand ten years later? Hear from @otoolematthew.bsky.social & @adampayne26.bsky.social at @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social.

Centre for European Reform@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social · last mo.

📅 Join us – 1/7/26: Hybrid discussion on 'Brexit ten years on: Northern Ireland and its future' with @otoolematthew.bsky.social and @adampayne26.bsky.social Email events@cer.eu for info & registration

CER's own @cerianbond.bsky.social writes about Brexit has affected cooperation on foreign and security policy. Britain and the EU face the same shared external threats, but being outside the room has reduced Britain’s institutional access and influence. www.cer.eu/publications...