Good conversation with Paul Ronzheimer on Germany and China shock 2.0. Germany escaped the original China shock. This one goes straight to the heart of its manufacturing core. No surprise it's attracting international attention. Good to see Germany finally having this debate.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2w ago

China flutet die Weltmärkte mit Autos, Maschinen, Chemieprodukten. Deutschland verliert monatlich 10.000 Industriearbeitsplätze. Deutschland im Epizentrum von China-Schock 2.0. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun? Darüber spreche ich mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social ronzheimer.podigee.io/779-die-gros...

China flutet die Weltmärkte mit Autos, Maschinen, Chemieprodukten. Deutschland verliert monatlich 10.000 Industriearbeitsplätze. Deutschland im Epizentrum von China-Schock 2.0. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun? Darüber spreche ich mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social ronzheimer.podigee.io/779-die-gros...

Die größte Gefahr für unseren Wohlstand. Mit Sander Tordoir

Ökonom Sander Tordoir warnt vor einem „China-Schock 2.0“: Chinas massive Subventionen, Überkapazitäten und Exportoffensive setzen zentrale deutsche Branchen wie Autoindustrie, Maschinenbau und Chemie ...

ronzheimer.podigee.io

According to a recent analysis, China enjoys a surplus in its manufactured goods trade with the European Union that is roughly equivalent to Italy’s national income. That trade disparity, it is estimated, continues to grow by about 30% each year. buff.ly/T6RzVsE

The Guardian view on Volkswagen’s crisis: another wake-up call for Germany and the EU | Editorial

Editorial: Robust action is needed to protect European industries from unfair competition. The alternative is social strife amid growing insecurity

theguardian.com

1/7 Great to see our "EU Semiconductor Geopolitical Risk Survey: Outlook for 2026-2031" covered by @reuters.com, @politico.eu, Rare Earth Exchanges! To make good industrial/trade policies, policymakers must graple with how industry perceives the geopolitical/internal threat landscape...

‘The ability to make independent decisions does not guarantee countries such control. In other words, independence does not guarantee sovereignty.’ Very well worth reading the whole speech: www.bis.org/review/r1902...

Mario Draghi: Sovereignty in a globalised world

Speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, on the award of Laurea honoris causa in law from Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, 22 February 2019.

bis.org

"Europe’s Car Industry Faces Dramatic Crisis, German Lobby Says" But said lobby failed to equip the German EV subsidy with a buy-EU clause - which'd be reciprocal to China. The EU's EV duties also failed to cover hybrids - the results of which are glaring in the chart 1/

Lessen uit 10 jaar Brexit in #BetrouwbareBronnen. omny.fm/shows/betrou...

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4w ago

Anyway what do I know. The global Britain business, stooled on a very special bond with America, is going really swell for the UK. And the UK economy is clearly booming outside the EU.

We Dutchies understood the case for being in the eurozone - being at the monpol decision making table in Frankfurt (with a series of very influential Dutch central bank governors no less!) beat moving interest rates 15 minutes after the BuBa.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4w ago

Fascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...

Anyway what do I know. The global Britain business, stooled on a very special bond with America, is going really swell for the UK. And the UK economy is clearly booming outside the EU.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 4w ago

Fascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...

Fascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...

70% of Koreans back pursuing EU-style economic community with Japan: survey - The Korea Times

Nearly 70 percent of Koreans support pursuing an EU-style economic community with Japan, while 60 percent of Japanese respondents agreed, according...

koreatimes.co.kr

Overigens is er ook een interessante vraag of je het argument “Duitsland moet fors investeren” van Tooze en co (ben ik het met eens uiteraard) kunt scheiden van de China shock. De winsten en waarderingen - en daarmee investeringsruimte - van Europese bedrijven die kampen met China dalen snel. 1/

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · last mo.

NRC gaat er ook nog op in. Het is de moeite waard het paper echt goed te lezen. Dan dringt zich ook de vraag op waarom de export van de VS, Zuid-Korea en Zwitserland in 2022–2024 zoveel beter draaide dan die van Duitsland. Let op de specifieke jaren.

NRC gaat er ook nog op in. Het is de moeite waard het paper echt goed te lezen. Dan dringt zich ook de vraag op waarom de export van de VS, Zuid-Korea en Zwitserland in 2022–2024 zoveel beter draaide dan die van Duitsland. Let op de specifieke jaren.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · last mo.

But Germany's industrial structure overlaps far more with China's than peers. The '22-24 comparator countries heralded by journos are tricky. Switzerland had a particularly strong period in Pharma. The US/Korea excelled in tech/semiconductors. The UK's competitiveness was affected by Brexit. 11/

Germans new EV subsidy is succeeding to rekindle the market whilst helping to support ....China's, not Germany's own, EV production. Germany failed to equip its new EV subsidy scheme with buy-EU/buy-ally clause a few months ago - a stunning own goal. Oops 1/

Some reflections and thoughts (a bit technical at times) on the Kiel Institute's important and helpful contribution to the debate on Germany and China shock 2.0. If anything, I think it's not as far apart from Brad Setser and my work as some journalists have made it out to be.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · last mo.

Reactions to Kiels paper on China Shock 2.0. It's a thoughtful contribution that rightly argues EU trade defence doesn't solve competition in third markets. But contrary to some commentary, I don't think it shows German concerns about Chinese competition are wholly overblown. In-depth thread. 1/

Good papers sharpen debates. I think the Kiel paper does exactly that. It raises important questions about Germany's competitiveness—but I also think some of the reporting has stretched its conclusions further than the authors themselves. My reading below.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · last mo.

Reactions to Kiels paper on China Shock 2.0. It's a thoughtful contribution that rightly argues EU trade defence doesn't solve competition in third markets. But contrary to some commentary, I don't think it shows German concerns about Chinese competition are wholly overblown. In-depth thread. 1/

One other point folks are missing by focusing solely on 2022-2024. Some of Setser and my argument and France's Haut-commissariat à la Stratégie et au Plan is forward-looking: The trend line on Chinas export glut looks ominous - and the macro drivers behind them remain strong.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · last mo.

Reactions to Kiels paper on China Shock 2.0. It's a thoughtful contribution that rightly argues EU trade defence doesn't solve competition in third markets. But contrary to some commentary, I don't think it shows German concerns about Chinese competition are wholly overblown. In-depth thread. 1/

Reactions to Kiels paper on China Shock 2.0. It's a thoughtful contribution that rightly argues EU trade defence doesn't solve competition in third markets. But contrary to some commentary, I don't think it shows German concerns about Chinese competition are wholly overblown. In-depth thread. 1/

Excellent reporting by the WSJ A powerful piece of qualitative evidence chiming with hard data: „Over three-quarters of German mechanical engineering companies see competition from China as the biggest strategic challenge worldwide.“ Difficult to argue it isn’t a big deal for Germany. 1/

Was bei den Diskussionen hier zum Reformpaket nicht untergehen sollte: Die Bundesregierung stellt sich in der EU-Industriepolitik gerade grundsätzlich neu auf. Neuer Handelsschutz gegen China; EU Präferenz in strategischen Sektoren und Joint Venture Regeln für chinesische Investitionen 1/2

The Suddeutsche with the long-read on the China shock 2.0 and Germany. A great read, with nice literary language, and rather beautiful formatting. www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/art...

Der China-Schock: 10 000 Arbeitsplätze verliert Deutschland jeden Monat.

Und die Politik? Schaut zu. Zu Besuch in deutschen und chinesischen Fabriken. Und bei denen, die sagen: Jetzt geht es um alles.

sueddeutsche.de

"Der China-Schock ist real. Und er trifft die deutsche Industrie mit voller Wucht". Klartext von Martin Herrrenknecht, @sandertordoir.bsky.social Brad Setser @jankaoertel.bsky.social & Suki, Johannes Volkmann, Anton Hofreiter, Friedolin Strack. 23 Minuten, die sich sehr lohnen.

Germany failed to equip its new EV subsidy scheme with buy-EU/buy-ally clauses. As VW announces a 100.00 layoffs, I doubt Berlin would make the same mistake today — just 4 months later. So it seems like a good moment to re-up Lucas, Nils and my blueprint for a harmonised EU EV industrial policy.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo ago

In case you missed it, this was one of the proposals @nilsredeker.bsky.social @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social and I made how to Europeanise EV industrial policy. Most European economists I heard from agreed with this as a way forward - we seem to have balanced red lines. www.cer.eu/publications...

Mooi en diepgaand gesprek met AJ en Rob - zoals altijd met wat humor ook.

Hugo Reitsma@hugoreitsma.bsky.social · last mo.

China Schok 2.0: Chinese import sloopt de Europese industrie. @ajboekestijn.bsky.social en @robdewijk.bsky.social in gesprek met @sandertordoir.bsky.social, hoofdeconoom bij de denktank Centre for European Reform. Als altijd op de radio. Voor de podcast: boekestijnendewijk.nl

Europeans should pay attention to the legal constraints President Trump now faces on throwing tariff threats around. The IEEPA tariffs have legally collapsed, and the US has launched a bunch of poorly argued 301 cases. It'll be hard for Trump to even implement the 15% Turnberry tariff.

Jorge Liboreiro@jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · last mo.

🚨 The European Commission vows to respond “swiftly and decisively” if Trump goes ahead with his 100% tariff threat: “The EU and its Member States have the sovereign right to regulate economic activities on their territory, in line with our democratic values and international commitments.”

Een handelsoorlog dreigt tussen Europa en China. @ajboekestijn.bsky.social en @robdewijk.bsky.social praten erover met @sandertordoir.bsky.social, hoofdeconoom bij de denktank Centre for European Reform. Vragen stellen kan hier! www.bnr.nl/podcast/boek...

Boekestijn en De Wijk

Arend Jan Boekestijn en Rob de Wijk gaan onder leiding van Hugo Reitsma op zoek naar de nieuwe wereldorde. Lid worden of je lidmaatschap beheren kan hier.

bnr.nl

Der zweite China-Schock trifft Europa hart. Während Chinas Exportmaschine ungebremst läuft und ganze Industriezweige unter Druck geraten, streitet die EU noch über neue Instrumente. Ökonom @sandertordoir.bsky.social erklärt, warum die Zeit drängt. table.media/china/interv...

Eine neue Studie der Ökonomen @sandertordoir.bsky.social und Brad Setser prognostiziert Deutschland sogar einen „China-Schock 2.0“, weil man immer noch glaube, nach einigen Strukturreformen wieder mithalten zu können. buff.ly/kb3zSu3

Mercedes Spannagels Roman „Crashtest Dummies“

Wilde Lust an der Demütigung: In Mercedes Spannagels bösem Arbeitsplatzdrama „Crashtest Dummies“ krachen männliche und weibliche Autoerotik aufeinander.

faz.net

@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist of the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, a pro-EU think-tank, said “You don’t want to get married to someone who you don’t know is committed to the relationship.” www.ft.com/content/ac01...

1/ It’s 10 years since the British voted to leave the EU. The big reason we remainers lost is that we didn’t convince people that being in the EU was actually a good idea.

Spanish PM Sanchez has clearly decided Europe needs to accomodate Chinese power. Goldman's modelling, does, however suggests Spain's economy is also being slowed down by China shock 2.0. Overall strong Spanish growth obscuring that pain, and clouding the PMs judgement.

Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2mo ago

The FT headline isn't quite right. It was always clear EU Leads would give guidance today to the Commission to work on a pla to bolster trade defences over the summer, and prep for Chinese retaliation. It's not a real delay, in that sense. But there's a risk. 1/ www.ft.com/content/e220...