Sander Tordoir
@sandertordoir.bsky.social
Chief economist @ Centre for European Reform. Eurozone macroeconomic policies | Role of 🇩🇪 🇳🇱 in EU. Formerly @ECB, @IMF, @Worldbank.
1/3 🇨🇳🇪🇺 The results of the talks with China as part of the Trade and Investment Consultations show progress: A start that can give us all hope – above all, hope for more. At the same time, proof that dialogue is exactly the right approach.👇 shorturl.at/uHakd
In a world where China is growing off the back of net exports, this is a powerful deterrent. So France and Germany are right to buttress the flurry of forthcoming trade measures with a second strike option in case China retaliates outside the rules.
Thorsten Benner@tbenner.bsky.social · 6d ago🇫🇷🇩🇪present united front on how to empower 🇪🇺to better deal with Chinese trade practices threatening Europe's industrial base.
🇫🇷🇩🇪present united front on how to empower 🇪🇺to better deal with Chinese trade practices threatening Europe's industrial base.
The piece is auf Deutsch, and builds on my remarks for Germanys state visit to the Netherlands. So it focuses on what Germany and the Netherlands, as two of the most integrated economies in the world (boasting terrifying fiscal firepower between the two of em) can do to build economic sovereignty.
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2w agoThree geo-economic philosophies are emerging. The US is a coercive superpower. China is aiming for autarky, with one-sided integration only. In a new piece, I make the case for Europe’s emerging response: networked economic sovereignty. 1/ www.dnhk.org/de/news/2026...
Three geo-economic philosophies are emerging. The US is a coercive superpower. China is aiming for autarky, with one-sided integration only. In a new piece, I make the case for Europe’s emerging response: networked economic sovereignty. 1/ www.dnhk.org/de/news/2026...
Vernetzte Souveränität: Europas Antwort auf China und die USA | DNHK
dnhk.org
China isn’t going to easily agree to curb its export glut. Franco-German backing for an ambitious response gives Commissioner Sefcovic some much needed leverage in his negotiations with China, ahead of the October deadline. 1/
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2w agoFrance and Germany are not sitting idly in the face of China shock 2.0. There’s space for rules-compliant measures: a flurry of CVDs, including on hybrids and safeguards. But Paris and Berlin are, rightly, thinking of deterrence in case Beijing retaliates outside of the rules.
France and Germany are not sitting idly in the face of China shock 2.0. There’s space for rules-compliant measures: a flurry of CVDs, including on hybrids and safeguards. But Paris and Berlin are, rightly, thinking of deterrence in case Beijing retaliates outside of the rules.
Great Pignal column on the populists strange love affair with China. Centrist parties CDU/CSU, Greens SPD are mounting the defence of Germanys industry and workers from the China shock. The far-right AfD, meanwhile, barely utters a word of Beijing criticism. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
Why Europe’s populists don’t criticise China
An ideal target gets a free pass from the demagogues
economist.com
Europe is putting safeguards on grain-oriented electrical steel. It comes with trade offs, especially higher costs short run. But a sensible move to secure a European supply chain of all kinds of kit for electrification. policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/commiss...
Commission imposes provisional safeguard measures on imports of grain-oriented electrical steel
Today, the European Commission imposed provisional safeguard measures on imports of grain-oriented electrical steel products, in the form of tariff-rate quotas coupled with price thresholds.
policy.trade.ec.europa.eu
@sandertordoir.bsky.social, chief economist at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social, who noted that many EU countries might seek to “roll out some fiscal cushions” for citizens and firms if energy prices remain elevated this winter. buff.ly/7lYXXS2
Bond market fears thwart EU energy crisis plan | Euractiv
Surge in borrowing costs means Italy and Greece are the only EU countries that have applied for the fiscal exemption
euractiv.com
Some reflections in today's New York Times on the lurking risk to the EU economy from low gas storages. EU governments are betting on a Hormuzian chance to purchase gas at lower prices, and if not, to outbid others. A risky bet. It'll probably be fine. Probably.
Europe has taken steps in each area, but greater ambition is needed. It must complete the circle – from founding, to scaling, to listing and back to funding the companies that come next. Read the full policy brief here: buff.ly/xf5WcB6 8/8
How to revive Europe's stock market listings
Europe should strengthen its public equity markets to finance innovation
buff.ly
We talk a lot about Europe’s scale-up problem and its financing gap, but less about what comes next – the exit for founders and investors. Our new policy brief looks at Europe’s IPO market and why it matters for financing innovation. 🧵 bst-europe.eu/economy-secu... 1/
How to Revive Europe’s Stock Market Listings
Europe’s ability to scale innovation depends on its access to risk capital. Closing Europe’s innovation gap with the US and China will be vital to Europe’s competitiveness. Innovative companies in Eur...
bst-europe.eu
SpaceX, SK Hynix, Anthropic/OpenAI - the US boasts a slew of blockbuster listings. Can Europe make more of its own IPOs? An important new paper from CER and Co dives right in, with some surprising findings (it’s the „quality of IPOs not quantity stupid“ being one). Recommended read.
James Green@james-r-green.bsky.social · 4w agoCompetitiveness, sovereignty, innovation. I reckon we'll hear these words just a few times during Thursday's SOTEU. But how does Europe achieve them? Public equity markets can play an important role - funding European bets on new technologies and scale. Yet Europe is falling behind. 1/8 🧵
That's right. German politics should dial down how seriously they take the CEO's lobbying, who have a deplorable track record of short-termism and geopolitical naivite - and make policy based on evidence and what is good for the country.
Edgar Morgenroth @morgenrothedgar.bsky.social · 2mo agoThe last thing you will hear a German industrialised say is that they made mistakes. The German car industry taught China how to build cars, thought diesel was a forever technology, and dropped their own quality - massive own goals.
Good rebuttal to Rey, Gourinchas and Gopinath in the Economist. Like many of us in Europe, Indian economists Nageswaran and Srinivas argue the undervalued yuan is not merely a reflection of domestic policy choices. Nor that China should get to adjust in its own good time. 1/
Here is a basic smell test. If the Netherlands and Denmark - Germany’s neighbours - can keep pace with US growth, are EU regulations really to blame for Germany’s stagnation? The red tape Berlin needs to cut, and the deregulation it needs to pursue, are primarily at home—not in Brussels. 1/
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 2mo agoWord is spreading that pockets of the European economy are blossoming. Croatia, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Greece are also growing at a brisk pace. Those countries are in the EU single market - casting doubt on a German narrative that EU regulation is to blame for its woes.
Word is spreading that pockets of the European economy are blossoming. Croatia, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Greece are also growing at a brisk pace. Those countries are in the EU single market - casting doubt on a German narrative that EU regulation is to blame for its woes.
China's export surge is quietly hollowing out Germany's auto and machinery sectors — is Europe prepared to fight back? @maxbergmann.bsky.social sat down with @sandertordoir.bsky.social to discuss what "China Shock 2.0" really means in Europe and what's next. 🎧 www.csis.org/podcasts/eur...
Germany's China Problem: What Can Europe Do About It? | The Eurofile | CSIS Podcasts
Max sits down with Sander Tordoir, Chief Economist at the Centre for European Reform. They dig into whether Brussels has the tools and political will to push back on Beijing, and how one October deadl...
csis.org
Good conversation with Paul Ronzheimer on Germany and China shock 2.0. Germany escaped the original China shock. This one goes straight to the heart of its manufacturing core. No surprise it's attracting international attention. Good to see Germany finally having this debate.
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo agoChina flutet die Weltmärkte mit Autos, Maschinen, Chemieprodukten. Deutschland verliert monatlich 10.000 Industriearbeitsplätze. Deutschland im Epizentrum von China-Schock 2.0. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun? Darüber spreche ich mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social ronzheimer.podigee.io/779-die-gros...
China flutet die Weltmärkte mit Autos, Maschinen, Chemieprodukten. Deutschland verliert monatlich 10.000 Industriearbeitsplätze. Deutschland im Epizentrum von China-Schock 2.0. Was kann die Bundesregierung tun? Darüber spreche ich mit @ronzheimer.bsky.social ronzheimer.podigee.io/779-die-gros...
Die größte Gefahr für unseren Wohlstand. Mit Sander Tordoir
Ökonom Sander Tordoir warnt vor einem „China-Schock 2.0“: Chinas massive Subventionen, Überkapazitäten und Exportoffensive setzen zentrale deutsche Branchen wie Autoindustrie, Maschinenbau und Chemie ...
ronzheimer.podigee.io
According to a recent analysis, China enjoys a surplus in its manufactured goods trade with the European Union that is roughly equivalent to Italy’s national income. That trade disparity, it is estimated, continues to grow by about 30% each year. buff.ly/T6RzVsE
The Guardian view on Volkswagen’s crisis: another wake-up call for Germany and the EU | Editorial
Editorial: Robust action is needed to protect European industries from unfair competition. The alternative is social strife amid growing insecurity
theguardian.com
1/7 Great to see our "EU Semiconductor Geopolitical Risk Survey: Outlook for 2026-2031" covered by @reuters.com, @politico.eu, Rare Earth Exchanges! To make good industrial/trade policies, policymakers must graple with how industry perceives the geopolitical/internal threat landscape...
‘The ability to make independent decisions does not guarantee countries such control. In other words, independence does not guarantee sovereignty.’ Very well worth reading the whole speech: www.bis.org/review/r1902...
Mario Draghi: Sovereignty in a globalised world
Speech by Mr Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, on the award of Laurea honoris causa in law from Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, 22 February 2019.
bis.org
"Europe’s Car Industry Faces Dramatic Crisis, German Lobby Says" But said lobby failed to equip the German EV subsidy with a buy-EU clause - which'd be reciprocal to China. The EU's EV duties also failed to cover hybrids - the results of which are glaring in the chart 1/
Lessen uit 10 jaar Brexit in #BetrouwbareBronnen. omny.fm/shows/betrou...
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo agoAnyway what do I know. The global Britain business, stooled on a very special bond with America, is going really swell for the UK. And the UK economy is clearly booming outside the EU.
We Dutchies understood the case for being in the eurozone - being at the monpol decision making table in Frankfurt (with a series of very influential Dutch central bank governors no less!) beat moving interest rates 15 minutes after the BuBa.
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo agoFascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...
Anyway what do I know. The global Britain business, stooled on a very special bond with America, is going really swell for the UK. And the UK economy is clearly booming outside the EU.
Sander Tordoir@sandertordoir.bsky.social · 3mo agoFascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...
Fascinating. The argument for pooling markets/ economic power is regaining effective sovereignty, at the expense of nominal sovereignty The UK never got the distinction. The Baltics understood it like nobody else, making massive sacrifices to be in the EU/Euro www.koreatimes.co.kr/economy/poli...
70% of Koreans back pursuing EU-style economic community with Japan: survey - The Korea Times
Nearly 70 percent of Koreans support pursuing an EU-style economic community with Japan, while 60 percent of Japanese respondents agreed, according...
koreatimes.co.kr