Chad Skelton

@chadskelton.bsky.social

Instructor at Kwantlen Polytechnic University in Vancouver, Canada. Data journalist. Nerd for hire: charts, maps, Tableau training. Past: Vancouver Sun he/him cskeltondata@gmail.com http://www.chadskelton.com/

One way to make AI do good things in education is to actively experiment in creating good things and share the results (whether they work or not) so others can build on those. Mitigating bad outcomes are important, but good outcomes are not automatic either, and will take collective work.

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Road for a majority for the Liberals is there, but it's slim. There need to pick up 5 seats, and they're down by less than 400 votes in the following places: - Vancouver Kingsway - New West-Burnaby-Maillardville - Nunavut - Terrebonne - Milton East-Halton Hills South - Miramichi-Grand Lake

I'm calling it a night but I see (at least) two possible scenarios in the final count: 1. The closest races are mainly ones where the Libs are leading. That means their seat count is more vulnerable. 2. If they count advance polls last and those tilt left, Libs could strengthen their position.

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Lib (165) + NDP (7) has a razor thin 172-seat majority at the moment. I'd guess there's a good chance that won't hold. Significantly more of the Liberal seat count is 'leading' rather than elected compared to Conservatives. A decent risk Liberal count will go down before the night is over.

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Been keeping an eye on Skeena-Bulkley Valley (BC). Amazing how much the NDP's margin of victory has narrowed from earlier in the night. Shows how poorly early results can predict final count.

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1. Can you figure out where I was standing when I took this picture? ChatGPT could. Given the photograph (scrubbed of all header information), the new chain of thought model, ChatGPT o.3, was able to pinpoint the location with a few meters.

A cityscape at twilight, from the middle of a street.

"We denied the Liberals and NDP the chance to form a coalition government." That's fundamentally untrue. They're literally at a combined 172 seats right now, which is enough for a majority. (even though such an arrangement is unlikely)

Liberals + NDP + Green = 170 seats leading and elected Conservatives + Bloc = 173 seats Mark Carney looks set to be Prime Minister for a good while. But at this moment, the unique math of this election could give the Bloc with a lot of leverage in the next parliament.

The path for the NDP to official party status is not looking great at the moment. They need to pick up 4 more seats — but are only within 10% of the lead in 4 ridings total across the country. And none of those are Jagmeet Singh, who is crashing. They will need a lot of luck at this point.

Pierre Polievre being behind in his own riding of Carleton seemed like a fluke with only a few polls reporting. But we're now at 50/266 polls and he's still in second. And the margin ain't all that close. Still hard to see him losing but this seems closer than people were expecting.

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Interesting: Conservatives have pulled ahead in Fleetwood-Port Kells in Surrey, B.C. Liberal MP Ken Hardie, who stepped down, won the last three elections. In 2021 by a pretty big margin of 45%-30% (46%-28% redistributed) 70/187 polls reporting.

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Globe and Mail election results site is more reliable than the CBC's for sure. But it's map projection is driving me kind of bonkers. Not used to seeing Metro Vancouver on an angle like this. CBC's map 'feels' more right to me.

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BREAKING: the new york times has decided that "Vancouver" is comprised of Metro Vancouver, "Toronto" is ONLY the city of toronto, not the 905 belt, and "Montreal" is ONLY the island this is interesting only to like me and 87 other city boundary nerds

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I don't know who decided to give the fourth seat beside CBC's At Issue panel to a rotating political hack spouting party lines, but it suuuuucks. We should hear from political parties on election night, obviously. But we get that enough from the riding-by-riding interviews.

When the Conservatives under Stephen Harper won a majority in 2011, they got 39.6% of the vote. Right now, they have 39.9% of the vote. But the collapse of the NDP and Bloc vote to the Liberals create a completely different electoral math.

When NDP vote in a riding goes down and both Lib and Con vote goes up, TV commentators seem to assume the NDP support split between those two parties. Which... we have no way of knowing. Seems just as likely that a share of right-leaning Libs switched to Cons and NDP voters mainly went Lib.

With all sincerity, Elections Canada is a national treasure. - Voting typically takes less than 15 minutes - We make it easy for citizens to vote, without cumbersome registration hurdles - We have every reason to trust that ballots will be counted fairly, and results reported swiftly