Christian Czymara

@christian.czymara.com

Migration scholar at the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), @knaw-nl.bsky.social and @rug.nl https://czymara.com/

I have read this Response to my Comment and have written a Rejoinder, showing three things: 1. The multiverse is many correlated tests. 2. The randomization inference is wrong. 3. The trichotomous moderator reaffirms my point. I also enumerate 7 misleading claims, now in print in the APSR.

A Rejoinder to ‘Still Instrumentally Inclusive’ (Turnbull-Dugarte & López Ortega)
Daniel de KadtCornell University, Department of Governmentdekadt@cornell.edu
2026-08-01
Abstract Turnbull-Dugarte and López Ortega’s “Still Instrumentally Inclusive” (the Response) answers my replication (the Comment) of their 2024 American Political Science Review paper (the Article) with, among other things, a multiverse of 2,970 analyses based on eighteen different weighting schemes, randomization inference, and a trichotomous moderator. As I show in this rejoinder, each is undermined by bona fide errors in their code, their writing, and their interpretation. First, the multiverse is just many correlated variants of the same test. This is in large part due to the weighting schemes which suffer multiple problems (some due to code errors, some intrinsic), and are largely correlated variations on one weighting scheme. Second, due to code errors the randomization inference compares a weighted statistic against an unweighted null and, in the two heterogeneity tests, permutes the interaction column rather than treatment assignment column. Every permutation p-value the Response reports is therefore computed against the wrong reference distribution; when they are recomputed correctly, two of the five it reports as significant are no longer so, and they are the two the Response emphasizes. Third, the trichotomous moderator is erroneously described as terciles, but it is in fact based on non-tercile cutpoints. The key subgroup effect reported in the Response thus rests on comparing just thirty high-weight control respondents against thirty-one high-weight treated respondents, and ends up reaffirming my original point that the heterogeneity in study 2 is with respect to weights, and not immigration sentiment as their theory predicts. I close by documenting seven claims in the Response that are untrue or misleading.
Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR@cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · last wk.

#OpenAccess from @apsrjournal.bsky.social - Still Instrumentally Inclusive - https://cup.org/4bhrhsp "Do individuals in Western democracies shift their views on LGBT+ inclusion when exposed to opposition from Muslim out-groups?" - @turnbulldugarte.com & @bertous.bsky.social #FirstView

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Exciting new contributions on scientific mobility and collaboration! The literature on scientific mobility and collaboration has long been paradoxical about whether scholars form collaboration ties before moving to an institution, or if they start collaborating after relocating.

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🔊 We are hiring! PhD vacancy: Migration Narratives in Digital Societies How do online migration debates become politically consequential? Where: Utrecht University Deadline for application: 20th August 2026 Starting date: 1 October 2026 For more details: www.uu.nl/en/organisat...

PhD: A Multimodal Analysis of Emotion, Narrative, and Migration Politics Online

What Moves Us? - How do emotionally charged migration narratives shape public debate and political engagement?

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Since paper here is nested in journal, those 2 sources of variance can be IMO combined to represent between paper variability. And even w/ this, we get a generalizability score (reliability) of 0.31 for 2 judges and 0.40 for 3 judges. You'd need 11 (!) judges to get a reliability > 0.7! 1/

Alejandro Montenegro@aemonten.bsky.social · 2w ago

"Here we show, in a large post-publication peer review database, that research assessment is driven more by differences between evaluators than by difference in the evaluated research. " arxiv.org/abs/2607.09783

🏛️ These patterns extend beyond electoral politics. We find similar ideological biases within intelligence agencies and the police, suggesting that institutional responses to extremism are also shaped by partisanship. (5/7)

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Türkischer Rechtsextremismus auf Höchststand: 13.500 Anhänger*innen in Deutschland. Sie eint eine rassistische, antisemitische und ultranationalistische Ideologie – die Gewaltbereitschaft wächst. Gekürzt wird in der Präventionsarbeit. Das ist angesichts der Bedrohung schwer zu erklären. 1/x

Türkischer Rechtsextremismus: Zahl der Grauen Wölfe erreicht Höchststand – islamische Strömungen gewinnen an Bedeutung - WELT

Rassistisch, antisemitisch, ultranationalistisch: Die türkischen Grauen Wölfe sind in Deutschland zahlenmäßig stärker denn je. Die Bundesregierung warnt davor, dass die Szene „grundsätzlich waffenaffi...

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A new paper w Manzo, Birkelund & Raub is out in Rationality and Society: 1/ journals.sagepub.com/doi/epdf/10.... Taking the opportunity of the 25th anniversary of the European Academy of Sociology (www.european-academy-sociology.eu), the statement assesses current challenges for the discipline ...

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Shaping the Future of european Sociology The European Academy of Sociology is a distinguished fellowship of scholars dedicated to advancing excellence in sociology. Bringing together expertise from di...

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⚽📚 The Ultimate World Cup Research Thread I've set up a little automated thread: every day of the 2026 World Cup (11 Jun–19 Jul) it shares one study on what football does to society: politics, economics, migration, health, crime & more. One paper a day. Kickoff below 👇

Mein Buch 📕Wo wir wie wählen: Politische Muster in Deutschlands Nachbarschaften📕 jetzt als @bpb.de-Sonderausgabe! Dafür habe ich: • Wahlergebnisse alle 94.000 Stimmbezirke analysiert • Daten zur Sozialstruktur gesammelt • & bin durchs Land gereist, um Gespräche zu führen www.bpb.de/shop/buecher...

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📢 Job Ad: I am looking for one doctoral researcher (75%) in my newly funded DFG project on misperceptions and factual information on immigration from 1.10. or soon after! 📌 Location: MZES, University of Mannheim 💢 Application Deadline: 21st of July

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Some news: Based on work out of the @wzb.bsky.social earlier this year Nourhan Elsayed, Hanno Hilbig, Sascha Riaz, & I published this on how communist era schooling in Germany affects attitudes today in the "British Journal of Political Science." A quick summary www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The Gendered Persistence of Authoritarian Indoctrination | British Journal of Political Science | Cambridge Core

The Gendered Persistence of Authoritarian Indoctrination - Volume 55

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Can readers tell AI news from human news? In our new study (599 people, Switzerland), they couldn't. AI and human articles were rated equally credible and expert. Disclosing AI sparked curiosity but didn't shift broader attitudes. Open access in Scientific Reports: www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Quality perceptions and intended engagement in response to AI-generated and AI-assisted news - Scientific Reports

Scientific Reports - Quality perceptions and intended engagement in response to AI-generated and AI-assisted news

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