Claudio Satriano

@claudio.seismicsource.org

Seismologist, Continuous learner https://github.com/claudiodsf https://seismicsource.org

Dreadful scenes from the devastating Rasuwa flood in Nepal/Tibet. My heart goes out to everyone affected. It likely began with a glacier collapse / rock–ice avalanche recorded by seismometers worldwide. I hope real-time seismic monitoring can support early warning for communities downstream.

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⚒️ 🧪 A M6.8 earthquake struck Kyushu, Japan today. Large quakes in Japan are common and often pass without much notice, but this one is serious - instead of occurring offshore in the subduction zone, it is a shallow, strike-slip event near Kumamoto. Damage and deaths have already been reported.

Southern Japan struck by deadly M6.8 earthquake

A reminder of the neighboring 2016 Kumamoto M7.0 earthquake

earthquakeinsights.substack.com

Auto slipmap with regional records (SLIPNEAR method, Géoazur/OCA) M 7.5 - VENEZUELA - 2026-06-24 22H04 UTC (MT solution from GFZ) A single earthquake is assumed (doublet not separated) EW Rupture plane identified at 100% Rupt propagation largely to the east Thanks to seismic records through IRIS

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I also derived a new elevation model from the aerial images, allowing me to visualize the elevation change in the affected areas. The rocks and debris in the valley are locally up to 32m thick and I estimate the total displaced volume is about 11 million cubic meters. #Blatten

Map of the Lötschtal showing the area affected by the glacier collapse. 
Blue colors show lost elevation, red areas elevation gains.
The two most notable areas are the collapsed peak of Kleines Nesthorn and the collapsed glacier which are shown in deep blue with elevation loss of up to 128m and 51m respectively.
The material slid down the mountain in an approximately 400m wide path and accumulated in a 2,5km long area on the valley floor which is up to 32m thick.
The newly formed lake above the village of Blatten is also drawn in.

The Map text reads:
Kleines Nesthorn and Birchgletscher collapse / Blatten im Lötschental (VS)
On Wednesday, May 28th, a2025, the Birchgletscher glacier collapsed under the weight of rock and debris following the partial collapse of the Kleines Nesthorn.
Approximately 10 million cubic meters of debris flowed into the valley, burying large parts of the villages of Blatten and Ried. The debris also blocked the Lonza River, forming a small lake that destroyed several more houses in Blatten.
Analyis
Using Oblique imagery collected and provided by swisstopo on May 30th, 2025, a photogrammetric DEM was created and compared to the swissALTI3D DEM. 

The following volume change was measured in the affected area:
Above Volume (m³): 11.2 Mio
Below Volume (m³): 10.1 Mio

Very (very) rough analysis indicates >6 m of slip. I resolve pixel offset using DIC in experimental cm sized samples with speckle pattern, and never used it before on satellite images. However the dextral offset is pretty clear, and I trust my calibration so the slip magnitude should be about right.

Heat map of N-S displacement at Sagaing, Myanmar, before and after the March 2025 earthquake. The right east (right) side was displaced northward by about 2 m while the west side was displaced southward by about 4.5 m, indicating 6.5 m of N-S slip along a rupture that bisects the city.

Looking at the historical earthquake map and the preliminary USGS slip model below, it seems today's large earthquake filled partly the gap between 20 and 22 degrees North latitude.

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Jascha Polet@jascha.bsky.social · last yr.

A historical seismicity map shows several #earthquakes of similar size to today’s M7.7 in Myanmar occurred in the region in the early 20th century, but this section of the Sagaing fault probably hasn’t ruptured since 1839 🧪⚒️

Seismicity map of the Myanmar area generated by Jascha Polet using GMT and a myriad of earthquake catalogs