WA-05: Michael Baumgartner is currently under 50% in the primary. The district is Trump +11, but Baumgartner won it in 2024 by 21. Lots of vote splitting to indies. Nate Powell is a labor-backed Independent, and it may work. However, Powell needs to beat Conroy in late votes.

Sorry, are people arguing that we narrowly won against a bad candidate with a 10:1 spending disparity, this shows we are so inevitable that we should make it 100:1 ?

Dems heavily outvoted Republicans in the MI-04 (Huizenga) primary. 99.7K to 84.2K (54/46) This was Trump +6, Rogers +6 and Huizenga +12

i feel like if all of those internals didn't come out showing el-sayed up by double digits, you guys would be way happier this is all an exercise in expectation management in the end

Wow, an Edwards getting into a sex scandal in North Carolina?

New York Daily News @nydailynews.com · 6h ago

GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards drops reelection bid over sexual harassment claims

Cori Bush won this very nonwhite part of St. Louis City as an incumbent 53-44 in 2024, lost it 46-50 in 2026. Quite uniform across the district, the whiter and richer St. Louis County swung roughly the same amount

Peggy Flanagan, you have to lock tf in right now.

Johnson County Kansas for the first time in modern election history had Democrats outvote Republicans in the primary

Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc)@purrtah.bsky.social · 17h ago

NYT called it, Dems might outright win the WA03 primary vote for the first time ever at this point

ElectionCord is: -Prediction Market Free -Free of AI generated articles -Free free If you do want to help us, help us with connections! We are mainly a fledgling consulting firm, looking to help Democrats WIN

Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 15h ago

We now have an @electioncord.com results page, this is super useful if you get bored and want to look at other states' primaries again, all on one page. And free, btw. electioncord.com/live-electio...

We now have an @electioncord.com results page, this is super useful if you get bored and want to look at other states' primaries again, all on one page. And free, btw. electioncord.com/live-electio...

I am not even sure AES has done enough to win now

Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 16h ago

I do think AES has done enough to win. And I just want to say, start to finish, maybe my least favorite federal primary ever. Even if you like AES as I do, this whole primary was extremely damaging and an enormous waste of money (think about how much progs had to burn here to keep pace...crazy)

I will never doubt the gyrating insanity of the US public ever again. As a wise mayor once said, you have stunned the nation!

I hate to be the bearer of even more bad news for Bluesky, but Washington has followed a clear trend of the West Coast states being very resistant to the Dem Tea Party. This was the establishment's best result since Oregon, every single challenger got crushed. Top-two didn't help either.

ah fuck I forgot Flanagan is also getting blown off the airwaves. Well, now I remember.

if this Michigan primary goes to a recount I will actually become The Joker

look, you're asking to lose by doing this. Sorry. I don't care that you have digital ads too, what do you think all these old people voting in rural Michigan are watching, Apple TV? And yes, the marginal value of linear TV is rapidly decreasing over time, but you have to try!

Amir HUSSEIN Hassan

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 16h ago

Seems like an upset might be brewing in the GOP primary in #MI08 to take on Dem Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Trump endorsed Amir Hassan, but he currently trails an absolute nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago by a wide margin.

I do think AES has done enough to win. And I just want to say, start to finish, maybe my least favorite federal primary ever. Even if you like AES as I do, this whole primary was extremely damaging and an enormous waste of money (think about how much progs had to burn here to keep pace...crazy)

lmao racist Republicans moment

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 16h ago

Seems like an upset might be brewing in the GOP primary in #MI08 to take on Dem Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Trump endorsed Amir Hassan, but he currently trails an absolute nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago by a wide margin.

everything in Washington looks amazing for Dems right now. We'll have to send @electioncord.com to put together an adjusted statewide number, but I'd spot this as at least 10% bluer than 2024 general right now, if not more.

Adam Smith dominating in WA-09, the two rather kooky left candidates split the vote. Smith may not end up over 50% as later votes come in from young people, but it's over.

McKinney is back ahead again, so this is likely over as he does better with EDay.

even with Latin American polling, it's wrong, but you understand *why* it's wrong. What is this, the electorate ended up being a good 10 years older than expected? ayfkm? After all our Dem Tea Party shtick?

no matter what happens here, I think the American electorate might be less predictable than any I've seen in the entire world. This doesn't even make sense anymore.

Kim Schrier is close to 50% in WA-08 (Harris +6) before King County aka Seattle has any votes in. Another great sign for Dems there, effectively Safe Dem.

WA-03 early vote in from our new @electioncord.com results page. Republican voteshare is wayyy down. Not even clearing 42%. Some right-leaning independents, but MGP is in very good shape to win here. Also Hennrich did not do well.

The 2 House seats I am watching personally: WA-3 and WA-9. WA-3 is MGP's district, who's a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won district, can she get first in the primary? And WA-9 is Safe D, but there's an independent who's literally a Communist, and I'm kind of interested to see how she does.

ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 17h ago

Just a note: Washington like California has open primaries, so everyone from every party runs in the same primary, and the top 2 advance. It's kinda dumb but it's what they decided I suppose.

At the very least, I think Hong getting heavily outspent on TV and digital is basically asking to lose at this point. As I have consistently stated.

fuck the rural numbers for Hickenlooper in the Colorado primary were the actual truth bomb, i'm crying

...does anyone else think Stevens even getting within 3% is terrible news for Hong