ElectionCord
@electioncord.com
US Political Consulting & Analysis Through a Demographic Lens Join Discord Here: https://discord.gg/Yqh4EmBVRR https://electioncord.com/
ElectionCord is: -Prediction Market Free -Free of AI generated articles -Free free If you do want to help us, help us with connections! We are mainly a fledgling consulting firm, looking to help Democrats WIN
Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 12h agoWe now have an @electioncord.com results page, this is super useful if you get bored and want to look at other states' primaries again, all on one page. And free, btw. electioncord.com/live-electio...
A lot of questions after this we won’t have answers to: •why was polling so off •was there just a late surge to Stevens •did Whitmer or those couple GE polls swing people back that were soft Sayed voters •is this solely concentrated to MI or is Hong overestimated in WI
Eric Michael Garcia@ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 12h agoNBC Calls it for Abdul El-Sayed to win the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan. We're waiting on AP call and another network.
Maybe a little late, but last thing before I go to bed: I added a new mode in the county view, where the color will be by unreported precincts. LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...
ElectionCord is: -Prediction Market Free -Free of AI generated articles -Free free If you do want to help us, help us with connections! We are mainly a fledgling consulting firm, looking to help Democrats WIN
Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 12h agoWe now have an @electioncord.com results page, this is super useful if you get bored and want to look at other states' primaries again, all on one page. And free, btw. electioncord.com/live-electio...
I said this an hour ago, and am still fairly confident he will win... but his lead has shrunk to just under 2%. Be glad this isn't a runoff state, or else we would get some more of this discourse! LINK for the Photo Finish: electioncord.com/live-electio...
ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 14h agoWith 65% of the vote, I think El-Sayed has this about wrapped up. Obviously a lot smaller margin than was suggested by polling, but Stevens hasn't gotten enough out of Wayne.
With 65% of the vote, I think El-Sayed has this about wrapped up. Obviously a lot smaller margin than was suggested by polling, but Stevens hasn't gotten enough out of Wayne.
Maine might have been worse, but this absolutely displayed the ugliness of politics and primaries. I think now more than ever we should switch to national RCV/STAR Voting, and (except for President) getting rid of primaries all together.
Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 14h agoI do think AES has done enough to win. And I just want to say, start to finish, maybe my least favorite federal primary ever. Even if you like AES as I do, this whole primary was extremely damaging and an enormous waste of money (think about how much progs had to burn here to keep pace...crazy)
Well, got some WA-9 vote as well, the incumbent Dem, Adam Smith will clearly win re-election, he's over 50% in this primary. Sawant, the Indy/Communist got 12%, so take from that what you want.
ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 15h agoThe 2 House seats I am watching personally: WA-3 and WA-9. WA-3 is MGP's district, who's a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won district, can she get first in the primary? And WA-9 is Safe D, but there's an independent who's literally a Communist, and I'm kind of interested to see how she does.
After another Wayne County (Detroit) drop, we are up to 57% counted. Stevens is winning Wayne by 13% with 42% of the vote counted there. Seems this will be close, if you want to go to sleep... well you should, sleep is good for you! LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...
WA-03 was pretty quickly called, it will be MGP and John Braun, a Republican endorsed by Trump. MGP is currently up, and if you add up all the Dems and Reps together it would suggest about a D+15 win for MGP. Note only 52% of the vote is in though.
ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 15h agoThe 2 House seats I am watching personally: WA-3 and WA-9. WA-3 is MGP's district, who's a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won district, can she get first in the primary? And WA-9 is Safe D, but there's an independent who's literally a Communist, and I'm kind of interested to see how she does.
WA-03 early vote in from our new @electioncord.com results page. Republican voteshare is wayyy down. Not even clearing 42%. Some right-leaning independents, but MGP is in very good shape to win here. Also Hennrich did not do well.
The 2 House seats I am watching personally: WA-3 and WA-9. WA-3 is MGP's district, who's a moderate Democrat in a Trump-won district, can she get first in the primary? And WA-9 is Safe D, but there's an independent who's literally a Communist, and I'm kind of interested to see how she does.
ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 15h agoJust a note: Washington like California has open primaries, so everyone from every party runs in the same primary, and the top 2 advance. It's kinda dumb but it's what they decided I suppose.
Just a note: Washington like California has open primaries, so everyone from every party runs in the same primary, and the top 2 advance. It's kinda dumb but it's what they decided I suppose.
civicAPI ☑️@civicapi.org · 15h agoPOLLS CLOSE IN WASHINGTON STATE
Alright, at @electioncord.com we do a lot of demographic similarity mapping to try and see how primaries and general elections would go. Which is to say that we saw quite early that if Thanedar was in any range of McKinney, then Bell would cruise in MO-01. And that appears to be happening
A new feature I just added: before if a candidate was leading a county, no matter by how much it would show up as the same color. Now, the darker the color, the more they're leading by! LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...
Absolutely agreed. She could still decide if she's still at 3% and the race is this close by the end
Burnham Down The House@corncobanalysis.bsky.social · 16h agoI’m gonna lose leftist cred for this, but I think McMorrow would’ve won this primary 60/40 over either candidate
Michigan US Senate Democratic Primary - Current Results - 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed (D) - 241,540 (49.2%) - 🔵 Haley Stevens (D) - 231,879 (47.2%) - 🔵 Mallory McMorrow (D) - 17,686 (3.6%) ~33% reporting
Based on current returns, Stevens needs at least +20 margin out of Wayne to close the gap. Could narrow based on the e-day - absentee breakdown She’s at +1 right now
With about a quarter of the vote in (yes Michigan counts slow) El-Sayed is up by 5.4%, but PLEASE note, we have basically no Wayne County in still, which is Detroit. Once we get some of that, we can have a better idea of what is going to happen.
@civicapi.org calls Kansas's Democratic Primary for Senate to Adam Hamilton, a pastor United Methodist Church. While the general is unlikely to be super competitive, it's not out of the realm of possibility it gets under double digits.
Fixed a bug that showed MO-1 as having no colors, because of the County/St Louis City having the same name. If you see any other bugs or have any suggestions for features let me know! Link to MO-1: electioncord.com/live-electio...
The numbers coming out of Detroit are not enough for Stevens. It’s a bloodbath
We got our biggest drop so far from Michigan Senate, Oakland County, and Stevens led by 2% in this drop. (5.4% of the Total State has Reported) LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...
I'm going to bump this again, because apparently the max size has been increased to 100!
ElectionCord@electioncord.com · 3d agoEven though we have a Discord (that you should certainly join) we also have a Bluesky GC! It only has a max size of 50, so if you're interested let me know
Early vote is in for the Michigan #HD08 primary and the DSA-backed Chris Gilmer-Hall is LEADING incumbent/Haley Stevens-backer Helena Scott: Chris Gilmer-Hall- 48.2% Helena Scott (Inc)- 43.6% Others- 8.2%
Looks like Kansas' Democratic Governor Primary will be pretty close. It's between 2 State Senators, Ethan Corson has the endorsement of the current Dem governor, Laura Kelly, and he's up against Cindy Holscher. LINK: electioncord.com/live-electio...
Republican power grabs in Kansas and Missouri are going down in flames with 18-25% of votes reported so far. Missouri's Amendment 4 aimed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments practically impossible. Kansas' Amendment 1 was designed to flip the state Supreme Court to ban abortion
I didn't really know how Bush would do in this race, but this was... worse than I thought
