Cullen Hendrix

@cullenhendrix.bsky.social

Senior Fellow at Peterson Institute. Sustainability, security, and political economy. Heart masquerading as head since 1977. You may not believe in climate change, but your insurance company does.

Between trading with Wakanda and the AI-generated map that landlocked Nigeria, Mozambique and Côte D'Ivoire, one gets the impression that Africa is not a super high priority for this administration.

This is so obvious, and it's really disappointing to see Democrats out there willfully ignoring this basic fact. Markets aren't going anywhere. Markets and social welfare are not at odds - in the long term, the former needs the latter to survive.

The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 2w ago

“Is there concern the slippery slope to socialism ends up full-blown communism?”😵‍💫 🔥 @aoc.bsky.social : “No that’s silly. We can’t even raise the wage, you think communism will happen? They’re scaring ppl so we don’t talk about 🌎 having guaranteed health care.” (From @pabloreports.bsky.social )

New @iea.org estimates of costs if China fully weaponizes critical minerals: - Export restrictions on rare earths mean $6.5 trillion in lost production in autos, high-tech, defense and energy outside China - Export restrictions on graphite mean $300 billion in lost battery production outside China

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We reject their sick perversion of this historic day. We reject the very idea of claiming freedom of speech to obliterate *all* the constitutional rights of people they hate and exclude by force—via ethnic cleansing (“remigration”) or other weapons. WE define ‘nation’. WE define ‘patriot’.

Rafael M Batista@rafmbatista.bsky.social · last mo.

Patriot front marching from Union Station right now. White supremacist and neo-fascist organization. Cowards.

This isn't something that gets better with a change in administration. We are going to lose millennia of accumulated, nonpartisan expertise because of this. And who will want to go into public service under these conditions?

Steve Vladeck@stevevladeck.bsky.social · last mo.

There's no sugar-coating Slaughter. It's an enormously important ruling (far more important than the other three decisions #SCOTUS handed down today). It's a huge win for Trump/the executive. And it's going to have massive ramifications for the functioning of the government long after Trump is gone.

The US-China trade war isn't just about tariffs—it's a medieval siege over the critical inputs of the future. No alliance safety nets. No third-party mediators. Just two superpower rivals testing their wills. Here is why the lack of historical "guardrails" makes this conflict so uniquely volatile.

Peterson Institute for International Economics@piie.com · last mo.

The US-China trade war is historically unique: It is security rivals, not patrons & clients, & competition is not principally over finished goods but over the inputs that determine who can make the next generation of finished goods or services at all. By @cullenhendrix.bsky.social:

US student visa issuances dropped by about a third through September 2025, per @piie.com. Higher ed is a crucial service the US sells to global talent, but shifting immigration policy is putting a massive brake on demand, harming higher ed and US soft power.

Line chart from PIIE titled "US student visa issuance in 2025 dropped by about a third through September," showing cumulative monthly F-1 visa issuances from 2017 to 2025. A prominent maroon line tracks 2025, revealing a steep decline compared to typical historical years, sitting at roughly 230,000 by September.

The Historical Baseline (2017–2024, excluding 2020): Most years follow a consistent S-curve. Issuances start slow from January to April, rise sharply from May through August (the peak prep season for the fall academic term), and plateau through December. These years cluster together, finishing between 350,000 and 450,000 total issuances, with 2023 marking the highest curve on the chart.

The 2020 Outlier: The line for 2020 sits flat along the bottom of the chart due to pandemic-related disruptions, barely reaching 100,000 by December.

The 2025 Trend Line: Highlighted as a thick maroon line, the 2025 data tracks closely with historical norms until April. Starting in May, the trajectory falls noticeably flat compared to typical years. The line cuts off at September 2025 at approximately 230,000 issuances—roughly a one-third drop compared to the 300,000 to 370,000 range seen in September of normal historical years.