Every conversation that I have.

New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >

Don't forget to remind the Stephen Miller types that tomorrow is Independence Day, not Independent and Identically Distributed day.

Who else here is going to be at ICML in Seoul and might be up for talking causal? (Also feel free to plug your talk in the comments!) Info on my talk/workshop is here: sites.google.com/view/philmli...

PhilML@ICML26

Workshop Description

sites.google.com

RIP Robert Thurman. Back when I took his Indo-Tibetan Buddhism course at Columbia, my roomate Ben Stern did an epic remix of one of this recorded lectures. drive.google.com/file/d/1v7iL... www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/u...

No ChatGPT, I don't need you to tell me that I'm influenced by Herbert Simon :).

What are the implications of the fact that social media hooked us by making us anxious and depressed, while LLMs seem optimized to make us over-confident and manic? Any good discussions of this?

If you've been thinking of reading @add-hawk.bsky.social's the score, go ahead and do so. It's an extremely pleasurable read, without a wasted page. I'd like to consider one (AI-related) nuance that perhaps gets lost in his discussion of objectivity... www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735252...

The Score by C. Thi Nguyen: 9780593655658 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books

“Mind-expanding . . . The Score is so exuberant and readable that the depth and seriousness of its insights almost sneak up on you.” —Jennifer Szalai, The New York Times “Brilliant...

penguinrandomhouse.com

Selected papers: Homeostasis: tinyurl.com/342rmsth Discrimination: tinyurl.com/yscv658e Timescale: tinyurl.com/2rpj7874 DCMs: tinyurl.com/2s3p2wuh Mediation: tinyurl.com/3hz3rca8 Faithfulness: tinyurl.com/3n3de87m Causation and Time: tinyurl.com/58cfcw2r Psychometrics: tinyurl.com/ynjaf5xv

Try it again with an Oxford comma?

Margaret Harris@drmlharris.bsky.social · 2mo ago

"In the event of a nuclear holocaust, the only life remaining on Earth may be cockroaches, Keith Richards and physicists arguing about philosophical interpretations of quantum mechanics." physicsworld.com/a/experiment... 🧪⚛️

It's a relatively new course I give called Causal Thinking where the goal is to help them reason about whether or not the causal assumptions they rely on are satisfied and also how to reason when they are not satisfied. Basically I'm trying to address this gap: bsky.app/profile/jere...

Jeremy Labrecque@jeremylabrecque.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Causal inference courses: here's how you estimate causal effects and these are the assumptions you rely on and by the way the assumptions are always violated kthxbye

Thanks to Will for the shout out. I had a great time at the @applied-causal-graphs.de conference, which really made me optimistic about the quality of causal work being done. That I got to give a keynote there is something I still need to wrap my head around, but I'm glad it was so well received.

Will Lowe@conjugateprior.org · 2mo ago

Should you be interested in a a less 'dude, where's my equilibrium' approach to dags, I can recommend @dagophile.bsky.social's 2020, 2021, and forthcoming on homeostasis and causal control. We just got a great keynote from him at @applied-causal-graphs.de on those topics.

Should you be interested in a a less 'dude, where's my equilibrium' approach to dags, I can recommend @dagophile.bsky.social's 2020, 2021, and forthcoming on homeostasis and causal control. We just got a great keynote from him at @applied-causal-graphs.de on those topics.

I’ve just finished this in the past week, but this is easily the best online course/series of lectures I’ve done. I’d tried it in a prior year and fallen on the wayside a bit, and I found the 2026 version with the split beginner/intermediate lectures much more approachable. Would recommend!!

Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛@rmcelreath.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Statistical Rethinking 2026 is done: 20 new lectures emphasizing logical and critical statistical workflow, from basics of probability theory to causal inference to reliable computation to sensitivity. It's all free, made just for you. Lecture list and links: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

This Thursday at noon I'll be presenting work on causation in physics at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Feel free to join if you're around. www.philosophie.lmu.de/mcmp/en/late...

Mindscape 354 | Christian List @clist.bsky.social on Free Will and Levels of Reality. #MindscapePodcast www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2026...

This Thursday at noon I'll be presenting work on causation in physics at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. Feel free to join if you're around. www.philosophie.lmu.de/mcmp/en/late...

New collider bias example just dropped

Wimsatt: Perhaps, just perhaps, the best explanation of a phenomenon at a given level is to be found at the same level. Kendler: Noone would seek to explain hypertension at the level of quarks. A few of my favourite papers on this topic of absurd biological reductionism: 🧵

Brent W. Roberts@bwroberts.bsky.social · 3mo ago

This...the fetishizing of unreplicable neuroscience in order to legitimize our work is self-defeating. We don't need to know that depression is in the brain (as opposed to what???) to know it is problematic. How much money have we wasted proving something like depression is "real"?

Transportability is by far the most ambitious concept I've covered to date. Feedback welcome! youtu.be/qD1X7IK1HQ0

E11: The Problem of Causal Extrapolation

YouTube video by Causal Foundations

youtu.be

C'mon gmail, be cool!

New video on how to generalize experimental results -- Why it’s hard to characterize the problem within standard causal models, how the transportability framework of Bareinboim and Pearl helps, and why extrapolation ultimately goes beyond transportability. youtu.be/qD1X7IK1HQ0

E11: The Problem of Causal Extrapolation

YouTube video by Causal Foundations

youtu.be

New BJPS Short Read! When are interventions evidence for their non-effects? Reuben Stern on correlation, causation, and choice www.thebsps.org/short-reads/... #philsci #philsky

Correlation, Causation, and Choice | Reuben Stern | BJPS Short Reads

When are interventions evidence for their non-effects?

thebsps.org

At some point I want write a paper titled "In defense of the naive view". I don't yet know which naive view I want to defend, but at least I've got a title!

I'm tremendously excited to be giving an invited talk at the upcoming ICML conference in Seoul. Feel free to reach out if you are going to be there, or know people who I might want to look out for. @icmlconf.bsky.social sites.google.com/view/philmli...

PhilML@ICML26

Workshop Description

sites.google.com

This is what it feels like every time I google how to get better sleep and I find advice like: “I used to have trouble falling asleep, but then I stopped drinking three cups of coffee right before going to bed”

The Onion@theonion.com · 4mo ago

Poor Sleep Linked To Gong https://theonion.com/poor-sleep-linked-to-gong/

Bah! When I was young we used to have to cut of the box tops and bring them to school…

From a 1-star review of The Giving Tree

Few people are aware of how much progress has been made against cancers. Leukemia is probably the most striking example. Before the 1970s, most children affected by leukemia would soon die from it. Now, most children in rich countries survive. ourworldindata.org/childhood-le...

Mike Black@mikeblack114.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Cancer wasn't quite a literal death sentence like HIV was, but you had a barely coin flip chance of making it across the board 5 years, and a whole lot of different kinds that were close to a death sentence in 1980 that are extremely treatable today