David Raikow

@david.raikow.online

I think about international policy, politics, conflict, and political corruption. Trying to harness Machiavellian cynicism for the common good. What *is* so funny 'bout peace, love, and understanding?

It seems unwise to take Qatar’s word for this. The Iranians maintain that they’re in bilateral talks with Oman, and haven’t mentioned any Qatari or Pakistani role. Which is not to say Iranian messaging is trustworthy. All of the relevant players have incentives to lie right now.

Foreign Policy@foreignpolicy.com · 17h ago

World Brief: Qatar mediates indirect U.S.-Iran peace talks, Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of targeting civilians, and the European Union remains divided on immigration policy. foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/04/i...

Bay Area friends: would you consider opening your home to these two cuddly cats? A friend found them behind a gas station. Their sibling, a black cat, got adopted, but it appears no one likes orange cats. They are being kept in a bathroom for the time being and need a home.

Two orange cats in a cage with food and water.Two orange cats in a cage with food and water.Two orange cats laying on the floor. Two orange cats in a spare bathroom with food and water and a litter box.
derek guy@dieworkwear.bsky.social · 4w ago

A friend of mine found these three kittens behind a Bay Area gas station. They are tame, vaccinated, and incredibly affectionate. Unfortunately, she's unable to keep them and I'm trying to find them a home. They are at risk of going to a shelter. Bay Area people, are you open to adopting?

Three kittens in a cage. Two are orange and one is black.

This seems credible enough, mostly because it’s pretty much been Iran’s public position for months. I’d be very cautious about any of the other reporting on the negotiations. There’s a lot of conflicting information flying around, and a lot of sources with reasons to lie.

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · yesterday

IRAN HAS SIGNALED IT IS WILLING TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BUT IS DEMANDING THE RIGHT TO COLLECT TRANSIT FEES, SECURITY GUARANTEES AGAINST FUTURE ATTACKS, AN END TO THE U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE AND RELIEF FROM U.S. OIL SANCTIONS. - WSJ

If political corruption becomes common at senior levels, it generally quickly becomes a political asset rather than a risk. At that point it’s almost impossible to keep it from becoming systemic. Then it entrenches itself at the core of your political system, and is incredibly difficult to fight.

Faine Greenwood@faineg.bsky.social · 5d ago

A core reason why you need to enforce anti-corruption rules at the top of government is because they set the tone for everyone else. If the leaders of the federal government are blatantly, wildly corrupt, everybody else looks at that and goes “so why should I follow the rules of they don’t?”

The “MCU juggernaut phase” was a brief period in which basically *any* superhero movie would make tons of cash, even if they were bad, mediocre, or obscure. The fact that the juggernaut ended doesn’t mean anything about good movies, particularly those beloved characters.

Adam B. Vary@adambvary.bsky.social · 2d ago

I'm seeing a lot of SUPERHERO MOVIES ARE BACK posts in the wake of #BrandNewDay's success. Spider-Man movies were breaking box office records well before the MCU existed. They are a cinema phenomenon onto themselves, because Spider-Man is a singularly resonant and relatable character.

US decisionmakers are caught in a cognitive loop. The US and Israel have convinced Iranian leadership that they need a decisive deterrent against future attacks to survive. More “punishment” just further confirms this conclusion. The US can’t bomb Iran back to the negotiating table.

Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 2d ago

The US military is very, very good at 3-4 things, and none of them is going to bring Iran to the kind of surrender Trump wants. That it has come to crowdsourcing ideas from the military shows what a devastating strategic failure this war already is, not to mention the effect on morale.

If you’re a Gondorian soldier your experience with hobbits is a tiny guy shows up with a wizard and is immediately taken in the Steward’s counsel. He saves Faramir when the Steward goes mad. A second tiny guy arrives with the Rohirrim and kills the Witch King. The first one then goes on campaign …

This is 💯 correct (in the US—people in lots of other countries think it’s insane) but also raises 2 other points: 1) A lot of effort has gone into convincing the US public to love means testing. 2) People love means testing *in theory*, but much less so when they see it with their own eyes.

Matt Darling@besttrousers.bsky.social · last wk.

One of the things that I think people who are anti-means testing need to understand is that the public generally loves means testing.

I don’t think there’s enough information to draw too many conclusions about the decisionmaking behind the recent attacks from Iranian soil. “They want the US to keep using up expensive munitions” is an entirely reasonable theory, though. The proxy attacks *might* fall into a different category.

Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · last wk.

Latest Midweek Update is out. Iran toyed with the USA this week. Trump continues to want out of the war, but Iran escalated. Their strategy seems pretty sophisticated and the end result is looking even worse for the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...