Dave Osmond

@davidosmond.bsky.social

Weekly renewable simulation of Australia's NEM Keen on renewables, efficiency, EVs, bikes, the outdoors, running & cycling

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 94.2% RE Last 258 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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Wind, Solar & Batteries are much more than fuel savers on Austalia's main electricity grid. Peak total NEM demand is ~40 GW, but the contribution from wind, solar & batteries means that peak residual demand in the last 12 months is almost 30% lower at 28 GW. /1

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Australia Electricity Emissions Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 518 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 24% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & PV generation. Down 29% since 2020, 68% since 2015

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 98.0% RE Last 257 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.4% RE Last 256 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 92.3% RE Last 255 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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All time best BEV share month in June in Australia, and the 5th one in a row! I hope they can somehow figure out how to keep this acceleration going down under.

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 97.4% RE Last 254 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 93.5% RE Last 253 weeks: 98.5% RE (1/5)

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Australia Electricity Emissions June Update: Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 521 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 23% since 2020, down 38% since 2015 Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & PV generation. Down 31% since 2020, 69% since 2015.

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Australia's main electricity grid, the NEM, has long had flexible gas and hydro to help manage the highly variable supply-demand balance. Now storage (mostly batteries) is rapidly growing & will soon be the main source of flexible supply.

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Another interesting stat. Eyre has a weather station & has recorded some extraordinary temperature variability. It had a min of -2.1 deg C on 14 Nov 2016, then 2 days later on Nov 16 had a max of 44 deg C! A friend of mine happened to be camping there at the time.

The London Ambulance Service responded to the highest number of life-threatening emergencies in its history yesterday. The Chief Executive said this was "driven by the extreme heat across London".

The London Ambulance Service responded to the highest number of life-threatening emergencies in its history on Wednesday.

Temperatures soared to 36.1C in parts of the UK on Wednesday, and that record for June has been broken again today.

Ambulance crews responded to 642 calls relating to category 1 incidents - those that include the most serious, life-threatening injuries and illnesses such as cardiac arrests and patients who are not breathing.

Chief Executive Jason Killens KAM said this was "driven by the extreme heat across London".

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 86.1% RE Last 252 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/6)

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Yesterday (Sunday) saw the worst 1-day wind drought in over 2 years on Australia's NEM. Just 24 GWh of wind generation, the lowest since 13 June 2024 (16 GWh) But PV generation was OK. Yesterday's VRE total (wind+utilityPV+rooftopPV) of 105 GWh was better than the 82 GWh total on May 18 last month

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Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 96.9% RE Last 251 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

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Two things are going to happen in Australia's main grid in the next few years - Renewables are going to overtake coal - Battery discharge is going to overtake gas 🥰

a chart showing projections for all four sources

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand) Results: Last week: 99.4% RE Last 250 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)

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