Spoke with BBC earlier on Iran’s nuclear programme and prospects for weaponisation or diplomatic resolution. An increasingly concerning picture. Iran is more vulnerable than it has been in a while; hard to say if it perceives greater security in diplomacy or a bomb. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Where next for Iran now its 'Axis of Resistance' is shattered?

The toppling of Bashar al-Assad has major consequences for Iran

bbc.co.uk

Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant www.ft.com/content/57a3...

Money launderer for Russian spies won deal to help defend Ukraine power plant

Sanctioned ‘entrepreneur’ awarded sensitive state contract to provide parts for Dnipro hydroelectric station damaged by Russian missiles

ft.com

Zarif lays out Iran’s role in resolution of regional issues. On nuclear, says Trump/Europe “have themselves to blame” for Iran’s nuclear progress. Notes that more pressure won’t work and that Iran is ready for dialogue - if West can ensure economic benefits. www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/how-ira...

How Iran Sees the Path to Peace

The Islamic Republic is open to negotiations—including with America.

foreignaffairs.com

My latest for @rusi.bsky.social on nuclear diplomacy with #Iran. With Trump re-elected and UNSC snapback expiry looming in October 2025, there may be a window of opportunity to convince Iran that it’s time for meaningful diplomacy. But expectations should be tempered. www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File

Europe and the US must capitalise on Iran’s vulnerabilities and time pressures to push for meaningful nuclear diplomacy before the October 2025 ‘snapback’ deadline expires.

rusi.org

Must read. Rosatom looking to mine uranium in Namibia using methods that risk contamination of water supply. Still, local population is keen for more RU investment, with Rosatom sponsoring local school food programme. (With input from some of my earlier work). www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

Is Russia poisoning Namibia’s water in its hunt for uranium?

Russian nuclear energy company Rosatom is trying to drill for uranium in Namibia. Farmers say a key aquifer is at risk.

aljazeera.com

Interesting enough for the fact of having gotten someone from a Russian nuclear base on the record but otherwise a bit of a non-story… www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Russian deserter reveals war secrets of guarding nuclear base

A combat alert was in place on the day Russia invaded Ukraine, he tells the BBC.

bbc.co.uk

This is a perennial challenge with deserter testimony. Have seen similar issues in DPRK context. Individuals will only have small piece of the puzzle and may not fully know or be able to accurately and meaningfully describe what they’re looking at. Statements must be reviewed alongside other intel.

Hans Kristensen@nukestrat.bsky.social · 2y ago

Russian security guard tells BBC about Putin’s “special” nuke alert during Ukraine invasion. www.bbc.com/news/article... Possible some personnel changes but Russian strategic forces are always on alert, except bombers and tac nukes. And US Intel has not reported significant changes then or since.

For folks interested in reading on the Russian approach to escalation, deterrence via intimidation versus through limited use of force, concepts of dosed or deterrent damage, etc. warontherocks.com/2022/09/esca...

Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy - War on the Rocks

Editor’s Note: After the Russian military collapse in and around Kharkiv Oblast, there is now renewed concern that Russian leaders could behave

warontherocks.com

NEW: Iran is activating a “substantial number” of advanced centrifuges, increasing the rate of Iranian uranium enrichment. (🧵1/7)

Calling for #IAEA report into unresolved questions on #Iran ‘s nuclear programme would put the issue point blank to Tehran in advance of October 2025: either provide answers on programme the Agency has been after for years or make clear you don’t intend to cooperate. www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/w...

U.S. and Europeans Move to Censure Iran for Nuclear Secrecy

Before Donald J. Trump takes office, the West wants to call out Iran for failing to adhere to treaty obligations to be transparent about its nuclear past and present.

nytimes.com

This seems to have slipped a bit under the radar last week: Russian introduction of restrictions on shipments of enriched uranium to US. Full details unclear. @financialtimes.com story with reference to my earlier @rusi.bsky.social report on RU enriched uranium trade. www.ft.com/content/ec09...

The enriched uranium market is all at sea

Russia’s retaliatory restrictions on exports to the US have yet to hit prices

ft.com