New article with Greg Whisler. We lay out how the Russian force expanded during the war leading to a paradox: as the quantity grew, its ability to employ force at scale decreased. As Moscow fielded more forces, the value of that mass steadily diminished. warontherocks.com/a-return-to-...

A Return to Mass: Russian Force Expansion in the War with Ukraine

Joseph Stalin famously said that quantity has a quality of its own. Yet the course of the Russo-Ukrainian War shows both the benefits and the eventual

warontherocks.com

On July 9, join us online for an important conversation with Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social on Russia's military power after Ukraine, moderated by The Economist's @shashj.bsky.social. RSVP here: carnegieendowment.org/events/2026/...

Russia remains a power in decline—but that decline is unfolding slowly, not suddenly, says @michaelkofman.bsky.social. He explains why Moscow’s gradual erosion may weaken (but not necessarily prevent) its ability to rebuild its military for @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/next-...

The Next Russia Threat

Moscow’s military power after Ukraine.

foreignaffairs.com

New Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Francis Farrell from Kyiv Independent to talk about the situation in Donetsk, what’s happening in Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, Dobropillya. Francis just got back from this part of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

The Battle for Donetsk

Mike sits down with Francis Farrell, a frontline reporter for the Kyiv Independent and one of the few journalists still working far forward in eastern...

warontherocks.com

What is Russia's "People's VPK"? Check out this explainer I co-authored with @michaelkofman.bsky.social in @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/the-strange-...

The Strange Rise and Fall of Russia’s Crowd Sourced Defense Industry

In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer

warontherocks.com

Fascinating review of shifting crises in the Russo-Ukrainian war by @michaelkofman.bsky.social on The Long Game podcast. Initiative is mostly on the Ukrainian side, thanks to innovation in drones & other battlefield tech, but Ukraine still needs Western support. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Is Ukraine Now Winning the War Against Russia? (w/Michael Kofman)

Podcast Episode · The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer · June 4 · 1h 10m

podcasts.apple.com

New informative interview with @michaelkofman.bsky.social Some key points: - 🇷🇺 mil performance is worse, 🇺🇦 is better - importance of 🇺🇦 "middle strike" - estimates over 400K Russian fatalities - challenge of the 🇷🇺 campaign against critical infrastructure - 🇷🇺 demands unreasonable - war continues

How Ukraine Put Russia on the Back Foot in Year 5 of the War

Military analyst Michael Kofman says “time is increasingly not on Russia’s side.”

nymag.com

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join Jack Watling to talk about the current battlefield dynamics. We compare notes from recent trips, exploring why Ukraine is doing better and Russian forces are visibly performing worse. warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Ukraine's Turning Point: Front-Line Realities in Early 2026

Mike sits down with Jack Watling, Senior Research Fellow at RUSI, fresh off a trip to Ukraine, to take stock of a war that may...

warontherocks.com

12/ Responding to a recent War on the Rocks article by @sambendett and @KofmanMichael on the problems of Russia's 'People's Military-Industrial Complex', the 'Russian Engineer' Telegram channel essentially agrees with the authors and the complaints of 'Forge of Mordor':

Excellent analysis of the rise and fall of Russian volunteer-driven efforts to provide drones and other supplies to the front in the war in Ukraine from @sambendett.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social - warontherocks.com/the-strange-...

The Strange Rise and Fall of Russia’s Crowd Sourced Defense Industry

In the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, much that could go wrong did for the Russian military. As one volunteer

warontherocks.com

I tend to come down w/Kofman; I think it's not so much talking past each other as it is trying to figure out how to slice two fundamentally different analytical questions: - what is the military assessment of a force performing a task - what is the political assessment inside a leader's head

Seva@seva.bsky.social · 3mo ago

"Kofman offers a valuable insider’s account of why military prediction is hard, but doesn’t engage with the structural question my piece was asking: why expert communities systematically fail at discontinuous change." our debate continues here:

A new episode of Russia Contingency is out. I talk to Sergey Vakulenko about Russia’s energy sector. We cover declining production, how the Russian state receives revenue, impact of strikes and the war with Iran. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Despite Rising Prices, Russia's Oil Sector is in a Tight Spot

Mike talks with Sergey Vakulenko, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Berlin and former Russian energy sector insider, about the mounting pressures on Russia's oil industry through...

warontherocks.com

Weekend listen: @warontherocks.bsky.social update on the war in Ukraine with @michaelkofman.bsky.social & @ryanevans.bsky.social. An invaluable resource since Russia launched its invasion over four years ago. This week: grey zones, Wagnerization, and drones. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...

Update from the Battlefield: Drones, Distance, and Diminishing Returns for Russia

Podcast Episode · War on the Rocks · April 9 · 28m

podcasts.apple.com

Part 2 of the Russia Contingency episode is out with Rob Lee. We cover insights from the latest field study, situation at the front, drone enabled assault and other issues. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Spring 2026, Part 2

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee continue their discussion of the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They assess the battlefield outlook for 2026,...

warontherocks.com

Back from a recent field study to Ukraine. New Russia Contingency episode is out with Rob Lee talking about our insights from the recent trip, the changing battlefield dynamics, with a focus on long range strike in part 1. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Spring 2026, Part 1

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee compare notes on developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War based on their latest field study. They discuss the evolution of Russian...

warontherocks.com

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I join @oajonsson.bsky.social and Maria Engqvist to talk about how the Russian military see the future of war, their lessons learned, gaps between theory and practice, and what to make of Russian military thought. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Russian Perceptions on the Future of War

Mike talks with Oscar Jonsson and Maria Engqvist about Russian thinking on the future of war. They discuss how Russian military thinkers view the lessons...

warontherocks.com

What are the Russian visions of future war? How should they solve the problems of the war in Ukraine and prepare for the future? And what does studies in military theory tell us anyway? Happy to discuss with Maria and @michaelkofman.bsky.social in the Russia Contingency @warontherocks.bsky.social

I talked to Michael Kofman, a voice I truly trust, on the course of the Russian invasion. The war is grim, but there are seeds of hope: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...

Opinion | ‘Time Is Not on Russia’s Side’

nytimes.com

Good discussion with Meduza here. meduza.io/en/brief/202...

This was Russia today Wednesday, February 25, 2026 — Meduza

meduza.io

Good discussion on how the war evolved, the role of drones, what is novel or perhaps new. www.svoboda.org/a/ot-fpv-do-...

От FPV до НРК. Как война в Украине влияет на тактику и оружие

Российское полномасштабное вторжение в Украину длится уже четыре года. За это время тактика ведения военных действий и ключевые системы вооружений кардинально изменились. Станет ли украинский опыт обр...

svoboda.org

Happy to talk to David French for this Q&A. www.nytimes.com/2026/02/26/o...

Opinion | ‘Time Is Not on Russia’s Side’

nytimes.com

The latest RC is out with @massdara.bsky.social We go through some of the current myths, arguments, and assumptions about the war. From judging offensives to attrition ratios & my rant on how CENTCOM is about to spend everyone’s munitions. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

The War After Four: Myths, Arguments, and Assumptions

Four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Mike is joined by Dara Massicot to reassess the war and the debates that have defined it....

warontherocks.com

After four years of grinding conflict, Russia’s war on Ukraine is increasingly defined by adaptation, endurance, and exhaustion. Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social gives his latest assessment of battlefield dynamics in @foreignaffairs.com: www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...

Ukraine’s War of Endurance

The fight for advantage in the conflict’s fifth year.

foreignaffairs.com

"For all intents and purposes traditional arms control between the United States and Russia is done. The question is what now?" Senior Fellow @michaelkofman.bsky.social in @warontherocks.bsky.social on Russian nuclear modernization after the end of New START: warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...

Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START

John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones”: an apt depiction of the current discourse

warontherocks.com

Happy to share the latest. My views on the current battlefield dynamics and where the war stands in 2026. Happy to share the latest. www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/ukrai...

Ukraine’s War of Endurance

The fight for advantage in the conflict’s fifth year.

foreignaffairs.com

Some thoughts here to add to the conversation on post New START. warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...

Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START

John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones”: an apt depiction of the current discourse

warontherocks.com

The latest Russia contingency episode is out. I sat down with @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the Russia-Ukraine war, looking at the key issues, insights gained, and questions answered over the course of 2025. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

A Year of War: The Russo-Ukrainian War in 2025

Mike is joined by Ryan for a wide-ranging, year-in-review of the war in Ukraine. They walk through the major phases of fighting in 2025, examining...

warontherocks.com

Still plenty of reasons to be skeptical about the Trump administration's latest push for an end to the war in Ukraine. Thanks @ivodaalder.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social for speaking with me -- theworld.org/segments/202...

Analysts skeptical about chance for Ukraine-Russia peace deal - The World from PRX

The White House says it’s making “tremendous progress” on a peace plan for Ukraine. And there might be a deal as soon as Thanksgiving Day. US and Ukrainian officials have been modifying a 28-point pea...

theworld.org

Latest Russia Contingency is out. Rob Lee and I talk about our recent impressions from a field study in Ukraine. We discuss what’s changed since July, key trends, and look at different parts of the front. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Frontline Insights from Ukraine: Fall 2025 - War on the Rocks

Michael Kofman and Rob Lee return with fresh insights from their latest field study in Ukraine. Their conversation covers how Russia is adapting to Ukrainian...

warontherocks.com