Robert de Neufville
@deneufville.bsky.social
Superforecaster. Professional forecaster w/ Good Judgment, Metaculus, and The Swift Centre. I write Telling the Future (https://tellingthefuture.substack.com) and host Talking About the Future (https://tellingthefuture.substack.com/podcast).
Great Hard Fork interview with Preseen founder Venia Veselovsky about AI forecasting agents in the segment starting around 51 minutes in (I get a mention!). www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/p...
OpenAI Models Go Rogue + Kimi K3 Freakout + A.I. Superforecasting
nytimes.com
One of the keys to understanding the Trump administration is that they're bullshitting everything. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/presumptio...
Presumption of Irregularity
We don't have to be naive
tellingthefuture.substack.com
"No country should be devoted to gratifying the ego of one man. The truth is that anyone who demands the world revolve around him probably isn’t really concerned with the needs of others." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-i...
American Idol
Trump's main character syndrome
tellingthefuture.substack.com
“When we boot up the data, it’s obvious the main reason Harris lost…is that 2024 simply had too much inflation-induced anti-incumbent sentiment for the incumbent party to overcome. This is curiously missing from its main diagnosis. The word ‘inflation’ isn’t mentioned in the autopsy a single time.”
Jill Lawrence@jilldlawrence.bsky.social · 3mo agoReality bath from @gelliottmorris.com: Given Biden approval rating & inflation/consumer sentiment, "the surprise of the [2024] election is that Harris did as well as she did...the Dem nominee was on track to lose the popular vote by 4 points. She lost by 1.5." www.gelliottmorris.com/p/the-dnc-au...
Geopolitical prediction markets "incentivize treason and fraud, create constituencies that benefit from escalation, and give structural advantages to unconstrained actors."
Seva@seva.bsky.social · 3mo agoI see three ways prediction markets are reshaping global politics, and none of them are good. new post
New podcast! I had a fascinating conversation with @seva.bsky.social about the instability and unpredictability of an international order dominated by personalist regimes. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/seva-gunit...
Seva Gunitsky on the Personalist Global Order
"The historical parallel should be worrying"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
We found a kitten during Hawaii's recent rainstorms. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/tacoma-the...
Tacoma the Precious
Stay stubborn
tellingthefuture.substack.com
It turns out the US can't just bludgeon the rest of the world into submission tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/new-year-n...
New Year, New World Order
Sometimes you need allies
tellingthefuture.substack.com
If I were one of Elon Musk’s children I’d be worried he was going to harvest my organs
Grammatically, something from Dubai is “dubious”
"If you’re a believer, this looks like the start of a “takeoff” scenario in which AI development accelerates exponentially as it is increasingly able to improve its own capabilities." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/something-...
Something Big
AI comes at you fast
tellingthefuture.substack.com
It comes down to whether Democrats can win Alaska and at least one other solidly red state. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/could-the-...
Could the Democrats Retake the Senate?
Fish, family, freedom
tellingthefuture.substack.com
‘Do You Speak Billionaire?’ and Other Stories From the Fall of the Washington Post talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/do-yo...
‘Do You Speak Billionaire?’ and Other Stories From the Fall of the Washington Post
I think I can say with little fear of contradiction that I...
talkingpointsmemo.com
We just submitted our sweet cat Juniper to be featured on the side of a Hawaiian Humane Society van as part of a fundraising contest. If want to support the amazing work the Humane Society does with animals, you can vote for Juniper here! www.gogophotocontest.com/lovedrivesus...
Vote for Juniper in Love Drives Us – Hawaiian Humane Society Alumni Van Wrap Contest.
Show your support for Hawaiian Humane Society by voting for Juniper in Love Drives Us – Hawaiian Humane Society Alumni Van Wrap Contest
gogophotocontest.com
“I watched him die… then I watched them maneuver his body like a rag doll— only to discover it was because they wanted to count the bullet wounds and see how many they ‘got’, like he was a deer.”
I’m not surprised by the new @research-fri.bsky.social results. I didn’t think forecasting agents were close when I wrote about them last summer, but what I’ve seen recently has been extremely impressive. open.substack.com/pub/forecast...
LLMs Are Closing the Gap on Human Superforecasters
We opened our AI forecasting benchmark to external submissions. Here’s what happened.
open.substack.com
"Once we accept it’s okay to disregard the interests of others—that there’s no need to treat others the way we’d want to be treated ourselves—there’s no compelling reason to act any differently toward our fellow citizens and neighbors." tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/the-americ...
The American Crisis
Minnesota No ICE
tellingthefuture.substack.com
I honestly don't think Trump's presidency would improve if he were more awake
You don’t have to know anything about Donald Trump or the price of eggs to predict Democrats are likely to retake the House in 2026
Will 2026 Be a Blue Wave Year?
Midterms are a referendum on the party in power
tellingthefuture.substack.com
Mantic CEO and co-founder Toby Shevlane tells me he thinks they’re close to producing AI that can compete with top human forecasters, although he acknowledges that right now AI models still don’t really know that probabilities have to add up to 1 tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/toby-shevl...
Toby Shevlane on Building AI Forecasters
"In a few months time it’s my belief that it will no longer be clear that systems like Mantic are below the performance of the human pros"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
Hannah Arendt’s description of the conditions that gave rise to totalitarianism sound a lot like the US today tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/american-t...
American Totalitarianism
Demagogues rise when the social order breaks down
tellingthefuture.substack.com
Hell is empty and all the devils have received commuted sentences
The latest ForecastBench results from @research-fri.bsky.social suggest that LLMs could be competitive with superforecasters in as soon as a year forecastingresearch.substack.com/p/ai-llm-for...
How well can large language models predict the future?
We’ve just released an updated version of ForecastBench, our LLM forecasting benchmark. Here’s what the new results reveal about the accuracy of state-of-the-art models.
forecastingresearch.substack.com
Robert de Neufville@deneufville.bsky.social · 11mo agoI had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
This is just like how if you don't want to be robbed you have to opt out with everyone who might rob you
The Wall Street Journal@wsj.com · 11mo agoExclusive: OpenAI is planning to release a new version of its Sora video generator, which creates videos featuring copyrighted material unless copyright holders opt out of having their work appear.
My thoughts on Charlie Kirk, Jimmy Kimmel, and the need to live with people with whom we disagree. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/we-must-no...
We Must Not Go Down This Road
Violence multiplies violence
tellingthefuture.substack.com
I had a fascinating conversation with @research-fri.bsky.social CEO Josh Rosenberg about cutting-edge forecasting research, including new results from the Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT) and the ForecastBench project on AI forecasting. tellingthefuture.substack.com/p/josh-rosen...
Josh Rosenberg on Forecasting Research
"In the next year to eight years, the extrapolated trend would suggest that AIs will catch up to superforecasters"
tellingthefuture.substack.com
