“Mr. Kashkari, who said in his own statement that “to manage against the risk that high inflation could become entrenched, he would “rather tighten policy incrementally" as he gathered more data on the trajectory of the economy.

Cleveland Fed President adds more color to her vote to dissent in another LinkedIn post. She did not find the current policy rate restrictive - meaning it should be higher just to hold inflation constant, let alone bring it down. This is a growing debate and sentiment in the Fed.

My take on GDP, which shows domeatic demand robust, trade deficit wide and inflation still simmering. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Consumers & AI drive growth; trade gap widens

Inflation still running hot.

kpmg.com

Less than ideal headline for a new Fed Chairman from CNBC

My take on the three Fed dissents. Inflation is becoming a norm, not an anomaly. That is a problem for the Federal Reserve. Warsh has argued it is a choice - time to choose to derail it. www.linkedin.com/pulse/warshs...

Warsh’s short-lived honeymoon

Three dissents at his second meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) – the policy-setting arm of the Federal Reserve – voted to hold interest rates unchanged in July.

linkedin.com

I talked with Jeremy Hobson and David Brown from The Middle about inflation, inequality and why the concentration of wealth is adding to inflation even as most consumers are struggling. Heart-wrenching trade-offs people making at grocery store, on whether they can keep their pets & medical tests. 💔

Inflation is still too hot, supply shocks are multiplying and the politics around the Fed are getting louder. Kevin Warsh may want to channel Greenspan — shorter statements, fewer clues and less dissent — but this is not the 1990s. Tariffs, war, AI and fiscal stimulus…

Many people miss the hits to refined petroleum products due to Russia/Ukraine war. @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social watching closely. Thank you.

Patrick De Haan@gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 3w ago

watch out: "Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on Thursday, as drone attacks deepen fuel shortages across Russia." this is a pretty large refinery hit- 300,000bpd- further a reason why oil and refined product prices have disconnected

watch out: "Ukrainian forces struck the oil refinery in Yaroslavl, northeast of Moscow, on Thursday, as drone attacks deepen fuel shortages across Russia." this is a pretty large refinery hit- 300,000bpd- further a reason why oil and refined product prices have disconnected

how much spot/wholesale gasoline prices are up since Monday- bottom line retail prices have a lot of catching up to do: Gulf Coast +30c/gal New York Harbor+39c/gal Plains/Rockies +30c/gal Great Lakes +29c/gal Pac NW +42c/gal NorCal +48c/gal SoCal +46c/gal

Worrisome.

Jesse Felder@jessefelder.com · 3w ago

‘With this latest jump, the 3-month rate of change for Margin Debt came in at 23%. This lofty level has only been reached two other times in history: two months before the peak of the Tech Bubble and four months ahead of the peak in 2007 that led the GFC.’ www.investech.com/subscriber-l...

“.. Diesel crack spreads are now higher than the price of crude itself. - WTI: $80 -Diesel crack spread (refining margin): $86 “.. Since the start of the war, diesel crack spreads have surged > 4x ..” - Ekwuwme

🔥The calculation that is coalescing hawks at the Fed and set the stage for dissents with a further pause in July are the inputs to the PCE index for June. Keep in mind that the Fed targets this at 2%. Those inputs leave us with a much hotter inflation scenario than was suggested by the CPI data.

Important post by Beth Hammack of the Cleveland Fed. The core ranks of hawks within the Fed leadership is growing and hardening their position on rate hikes. The persistence of inflation outside of the oil shock is the reason. Those who worry the Fed went too far in cuts in late 2025 is rising.

🥶 one win at a time. Today’s CPI report revealed a welcome cooling trend that went well beyond the price of oil and showed the cool down was more broad based. It showed up in insurance costs, especially for vehicles which held the line on prices. Shelter costs got a break as well.

Yep & USMCA now under annual review and tariffs designed to recoup revenues lost to Supreme Court Ruling hit again in August, reinforcing upward impulse on the tariffs already enacted but not passed along. The sequencing of tariffs mimics inflation and further unmoors inflation expectations.

Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 4w ago

NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.” @scottlincicome.bsky.social libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...

New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3

CBO just released a dynamic estimate and the cost of OBBBA goes from $2.4 trillion to $2.8 trillion. But by convention they don’t include the costs of interest on new debt. If they do that - cost goes to $3.4 trillion. @budgetlab.bsky.social comparable estimate was $3.5 trillion. 1/

Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity

Took my inspiration for my annual structural change watchlist from Ancient Greek mythology & the story of Sisyphus who was condemned to roll a boulder uphill for eternity. We are in a world where each inch of growth is harder to attain, buffers should the economy stumbled are thin & elevated…

Payrolls slow, unemployment lower for wrong reasons Non-farm payrolls rose by 57K in June, their weakest gain since February. Data for the last two months was revised down. Public sector payrolls expanded modestly, but the largest gain was in May.

This Thursday, at the CBOE in Chicago, CNBC's The Exchange will be broadcasting live. @KPMG_US chief economist @dianeswonk.bsky.social will be joining @kellycnbc22.bsky.social and Brian Sullivan to share her analysis of PCE and the economic outlook.

My take on consumer spending & inflation. Brace for a hot & sticky summer, even as prices at the gas pump cool. I explain the lags in that as well. The economy is accelerating. Those gains mask underlying burn most are feeling. Fed poised to hike rates. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

Consumers spend through higher prices at the pump

Consumer electronics prices are rising.

kpmg.com

Life is nonlinear and at times messy. Failure doesn’t define you; coping with and learning from them does. Here is a podcast that I did with CEO of the Chicago Network, Maria Doughty. www.buzzsprout.com/1984234/epis...

Diane Swonk: How a Latchkey Kid Became One of the Nation's Go-To Economists - HerStories

If you've been watching recent coverage on the U.S. economy on just about any major TV network, you'll have seen Diane Swonk offering her take on inflation during the war with Iran. In this episode, K...

buzzsprout.com

Hawks flock at Fed. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scored a win with a shorter statement, which ended with the Fed’s commitment to restore price stability. He said only one person discussed a cut and even though he did not want to commit to forward guidance, the shift on the committee is clear.

🔥producer prices came in hot, again in May. Together with the CPI, the imply an increase in the PCE of 0.5% on total and 0.3% on core. That would boost the PCE to an annual increase of 4.2% in May, which easier year on year comps, especially in energy buoying those gains.

I turned to actor Peter Sellers’ character in the movie Being There for my inspiration this month. He was a simple gardener catapulted to fame as by the economic & political elite who heard what they wanted to hear in his literal explanations of the four seasons & how a garden grows.

🔥Job gains surge 172k, aided by a sharp 52K increase in government hires, largely at the local level. Federal employment added 1K jobs, and is down ~ 350K since Oct 2024. A surge in layoffs, quits & retirements have left staffing shortages across fed agencies - it’s at the lowest level since 1966.

Fed’s inflation target came in hot & sticky in April, fueling Fed’s pivot to a rate hike instead of a cut. High inflation & loss of transfers for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) sapped income growth & drained saving to 2008 lows. Here’s my take on the data. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...

April inflation: Hot & sticky

Rate hike is possible.

kpmg.com

This analysis looks at mobility and highlights a key issue. You can improve income mobility - not easy but possible - but wealth mobility is stickier. It is harder to accumulate wealth even if you manage to break out of the income strata in which you were born.

NBER@nber.org · 2mo ago

Analyzing intergenerational mobility of wealth and income across US counties, highlighting spatial differences due to factors such as house prices and the Great Recession shock, from Ariel J. Binder, Max Risch, and John L. Voorheis www.nber.org/papers/w35219