Adam Bonica
@adambonica.bsky.social
Professor of Political Science at Stanford | Exploring money in politics, campaigns and elections, ideology, the courts, and inequality | Author of The Judicial Tug of War cup.org/2LEoMrs | https://data4democracy.substack.com
I have little to add to the chat, but I will say this: Those of us who spend a lot of time talking about politics overestimate how much other people care about, or are even familiar with, the labels we use to describe, denigrate, or celebrate candidates. Sometimes we’re high on our own supply.
Not good timing, but some extremely important points in this now unredacted part of the 2024 Autopsy: -loss more about Dem turnout decline than swing voters -Dem consultants extracting huge $ for bad advice -Biden shouldn'ta run -spam PACs ruining fundraising www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/u...
Author of Democrats’ 2024 Autopsy Says Party Left Out Key Chapter
A dispute over the chapter between the author and the Democratic National Committee has added to the party’s turmoil as it tries to look forward, not backward.
nytimes.com
Updated our 'Do Moderates Do Better?' paper When you analyze the question rigorously (and don't assume correlation is causation), you find that moderates & non-moderates perform ~equally well in the Trump era Love working with @adambonica.bsky.social
We’re also funding death squads but what’s really offensive is that somewhere out there a poor person might be able to eat
USA TODAY Opinion@usatodayopinion.usatoday.com · 2d agoOpinion: Mamdani's idea may sound appealing, but it's NYC taxpayers who will take the hit, subsidizing discounts they may never even use.
Last year I was interviewed by Paul Rivera for the DNC's after-action review. He told me then that fundraising reform would likely meet the greatest resistance from the party and its operatives. A passage (highlighted) Rivera says was sent but left out of the report the DNC released: 🧵
![The highlighted passage is what Rivera claims was left out of the DNC’s report.
The DNC bears some responsibility for this ecosystem. During the 2019 nominating process, candidates seeking the presidential nomination had to meet grassroots donor thresholds as well as other benchmarks identified by the DNC to make the debate stage. This led many candidates to make significant investments in online fundraising and other tactics to capture grassroots donors. The intense pressure to make the debates left campaigns with few options.
[By Charter, the DNC has the authority and responsibility to publish a code of fair campaign practices “including but not limited to providing information to campaigns; agreements between the Democratic National Committee and campaigns; fundraising; and common
vendors.”46 The DNC Chair is required to put this code in place before each Presidential cycle.]
The DNC can and should adopt a fundraising code of conduct to ensure grassroots fundraising remains ethically aligned and is more effective going into the future.
As Bonica writes, the costs and risks for Democrats are compounding:
Every dollar spent on fundraising consultants, list rentals, and SMS spammers is a dollar
not spent on voter contact, organizing, or actual political communication. Campaigns
that should be building movements are instead building donor databases. Political
energy that could mobilize communities gets redirected into optimizing email subject
lines and testing which desperate plea extracts the most dollars from exhausted
supporters.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:25cztqjrqfedqg22bpoqjljr/bafkreig3b2j6gmn7vkztfkqvyenpxm3janraab7qavczq6ey36qhyl4zuu)
People potentially subject to the nyc pied-à-terre tax are being treated with 1% of the administrative hostility of SNAP and Medicaid applicants, and they’re throwing 100x the fit
Anti-corruption is how you beat authoritarians. Two lessons from Hungary: 1. Our affordability crisis is a corruption problem. Say so. 2. “a message that treats [corruption] as a Trump problem alone will fail to connect with those who believe the entire system is rigged.”
What Hungary's Anti-Corruption Election Can Teach U.S. Democracy Advocates
Hungary's anti-corruption win offers U.S. democracy advocates lessons, but success requires a credible messenger and a concrete plan.
justsecurity.org
This is just the surface. What the FEC records show behind these texts is worse than the texts themselves. Also, 95% seems pretty low.
Waldo Jaquith@waldo.net · 2w ago95% of my communications from the Democratic Party look like this. I have never in my life signed up to be texted by a campaign or the party, and I spent fruitless months attempting to unsubscribe from these. These are functionally identical to scam texts.
The people sending these texts give less than 2% of the money to candidates data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-mother...
The Mothership Vortex: An Investigation Into the Firm at the Heart of the Democratic Spam Machine
How a single consulting firm extracted $282 million from a network of spam PACs while delivering just $11 million to actual campaigns.
data4democracy.substack.com
The University of Chicago Press held its launch meeting for my book today. Respectability Politics will be out Summer 2027, with a cover featuring original letterpress work by the artist Amos Kennedy, Jr. whose work I greatly admire! So excited to share this book with y’all. I’m really proud of it.
As Gov. Beshear deliberates on a deeply uncomfortable decision of institutional consequence, in this one instance, he would do well to ask himself: “What would Mitch McConnell do?” Or I suppose he could just give him a call.
Mamdani's political genius lies in his ability to identify popular things that he can do unilaterally and then do them.
Mayor Zohran Kwame Mamdani@mayor.nyc.gov · 2w agoNYC’s small business owners have said it over and over: endless paperwork and uncertainty has made getting their stores up and running too difficult. So we’re cutting red tape, eliminating redundant permits (did you know you need a permit just to serve some ice cream?), and speeding up inspections.
I just had this conversarion with an editor yesterday. If you start hedging for imagined bad faith readers, you have stopped writing and started journaling a fan fic to them.
BeijingPalmer@beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 2w agothere is literally no amount of caveats or careful wording that will protect you from stupidity or bad faith, so you might as well say things straightforwardly and strongly to begin with.
Serbian President Vucic announced he’ll resign after 18 months of student protests. That’s Bangladesh, Nepal, Madagascar, Bulgaria, Hungary, and now Serbia, all in the past two years. Anti-corruption is the most potent force for positive political change right now. The US remains ripe.
Serbian President Vucic says he will resign within weeks
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Saturday he would resign within weeks and the country will hold early presidential and parliamentary elections, following 18 months of anti-government prote...
reuters.com
Today in Every Accusation is a Confession
Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 3w agoI cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
As Adam Bonica says, “America’s problems are solved problems. Just not here.”
Jess Calarco@jessicacalarco.com · 2w agoThree years ago, I broke my foot while trail running in New Zealand. The total bill for my hospital visit--which included X-rays, a walking boot, and crutches-- was $0.
Ironic Star Wars Moment
ALT: Ironic Star Wars Moment
static.klipy.com
Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 3w agoI cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
Voter fraud: an individual moves one vote; vanishingly rare Election fraud: a politician rigging votes at scale; literally why Trump is a convicted felon The relative risk to our elections is like taking a Tylenol vs mainlining fentanyl. But, of course, it’s the Tylenol they’re after.
I cross-referenced my database of candidates against credible voter fraud cases. GOP politicians are implicated at 50x–38,000x the general public's rate. Yet even if every American voted with the integrity of a GOP candidate, it still wouldn't come close to justifying making voting one iota harder.
The big news outlets (NYT, ABC, etc.) often dismiss their critics, particularly people who use social media. But the coverage of last night's speech was actually pretty honest---and therefore scathing. People on here and other places demanding less false equivalence/both sides are getting results.
Robert Mugabe once “won” a lottery run by Zimbabwe’s state-owned bank while President. And somehow this is so much worse.
Trump is selling high-speed access to his market-moving Truth Social posts
The website ads probably slow things down.
theverge.com
Democrats have stopped talking about climate. Strategists say that's smart—but they're wrong. Making climate a top priority wins votes, and barely 1 in 10 voters will vote against climate action. Read all about it in my newsletter, "Notes from the Electric Era." electricnotes.news/p/yes-democr...
Yes, Democrats Should Talk About Climate.
Talking about Climate Change is a Political Winner.
electricnotes.news
"We are told that America is exceptional because we are richer, stronger, more powerful than everyone else. The truth is that America is exceptional because here, nothing is fixed into place .... You each hold a special power. The power to determine what America means." www.nyc.gov/mayors-offic...
Remarks as Prepared: Mayor Mamdani Delivers Address Marking America’s 250th Birthday
nyc.gov
As I said during a candidate forum in April: when I fight for Medicare for All, free child care, or more affordable housing, I fight for it for every American: Democrat, Republican, or otherwise.
Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · last mo.There is nothing more patriotic than wanting better lives for your neighbors.
There is nothing more patriotic than wanting better lives for your neighbors.
Earlier this year, I made the grounded case for why we should still believe in the promise of America. Today’s America is something we inherited. But tomorrow’s is still for us to make. America’s problems are solved problems. The blueprints exist. Better days are ahead.
The Wall Looks Permanent Until It Falls
On the optimism of preparation in a time of democratic decay.
open.substack.com
If there’s an issue Democrats could run on and win in a landslide, it’s anti-corruption. But first the Dem establishment needs to deal with its own corruption problem. It’s not enough to be right about Trump’s corruption—they also have to be credible.
I agree with @perrybaconjr.bsky.social. Voters want fighters. People who will actively resist Trump. Way too many established Dems tick off the right positions on questionnaires but don’t actually fight for them. We need a new generation of heroes. newrepublic.com/article/2125...
The Left Wins in Colorado—and It’s Not Because of Gaza or Socialism
What the insurgent wave in Democratic primaries really proves is this: It’s no longer enough to be a liberal who votes the right way most of the time.
newrepublic.com
“The party base is looking for fighters and disrupters—and will cast aside solid politicians who they don’t think will aggressively battle Donald Trump, MAGA, and right-wing billionaires.” Latest from @perrybaconjr.bsky.social
The Left Wins in Colorado—and It’s Not Because of Gaza or Socialism
What the insurgent wave in Democratic primaries really proves is this: It’s no longer enough to be a liberal who votes the right way most of the time.
newrepublic.com
Stock trades by President. The blatant corruption is just staggering
