Nigel Gould-Davies
@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies. Fmr Ambassador to Belarus. Trustee, Ukraine Institute London. Victims' rights advocate. Views mine.
To the printers! “the definitive book on Western economic statecraft towards the Soviet Union and Russia” - Mike McFaul “an exceptional and important addition to the field” - Fiona Hill “a must-read for those thinking about how to manage relations with Russia” - Sir John Sawers
My interview with @theguardian.com on the chaotic lurches of US policy towards Russia: www.theguardian.com/world/2026/o...
Thursday briefing: Thanks to an erratic Trump, peace in Ukraine is still far away
In today’s newsletter: As Russia resists a ceasefire and Trump’s shifting priorities unsettle allies, an end to the conflict isn’t getting any closer
theguardian.com
To the printers! “the definitive book on Western economic statecraft towards the Soviet Union and Russia” - Mike McFaul “an exceptional and important addition to the field” - Fiona Hill “a must-read for those thinking about how to manage relations with Russia” - Sir John Sawers
My latest short piece on what is new, and what not, in the US-Russia diesel debacle. It concludes: "When policy is driven by venal ineptitude rather than a judicious understanding of the national interest, the result is a masterclass in strategic failure." www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/12/t...
Trump’s Russian Diesel Debacle Risks Backfiring - The Moscow Times
Opinion | President Donald Trump’s announcement on Oct. 9 that the United States would begin importing Russian diesel has roiled transatlantic relations.
themoscowtimes.com
I did 100 press-ups a day in September for cancer research @cancerresearchuk.org. Even a token donation will contribute to this valuable work: fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/100-pus... Thank you!
Witkoff and Kushner’s visit to Kyiv is a diplomatic win for Ukraine. But they still do not understand the nature of the war or what is needed to end it. My latest: www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The US and Russia: groundhog diplomacy
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner’s visit to Kyiv is a diplomatic win for Ukraine. But they still do not understand the nature of the war or what is needed to end it.
iiss.org
Every morning this month I am doing 100 press-ups to support cancer research. Please do sponsor me. If half my followers each donate the price of a cup of coffee (£4), that's £1000 for cancer research. It takes a few seconds. Thank you! fundraise.cancerresearchuk.org/page/100-pus...
This, from highly experienced Russia hand @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social, matters: when somebody describes themselves as being part of the "Russian opposition", it is essential to enquire further: opposition *to what*, exactly? [1/3] spectator.com/article/does...
Does Russia’s exiled opposition want what’s best for Europe?
Europe welcomed genuine political dissidents during the Cold War, and should continue doing so. But some argue Europe should go further.
spectator.com
How credible is the Muscovite opposition (or rather oppositions?), or they are just a mere politicians in waiting tiptoeing around the prison of nations sunk in imperialist mindset? Well argued @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social! www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/11/s... via @moscowtimes.bsky.social
Soviet Dissidents Understood What Russia’s Exiled Opposition Has Forgotten - The Moscow Times
Opinion | In a recent article for the Moscow Times, the prominent Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin claimed I argued that “the interests of Russia’s opposition in exile are fundamentally at od...
themoscowtimes.com
Good article. What a cheek to call on the West to pay for Russia's reconstruction! No, the West will be helping with Ukraine's reconstruction, which should in fact be funded by Russia in the form of reparations.
Excellent piece by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social - though I don't think the problem is limited to the RU opposition: a lot of European governments, including the UK's, are also reluctant to try to weaken Russia too much or think about how to create conditions to favour systemic change there.
The Moscow Times@themoscowtimes.com · 3mo ago#OpEd Leading members of the Russian opposition often appear uncomfortable with what defeating Russia and supporting Ukraine would mean. Their Soviet predecessors were more clear-eyed about what it takes to weaken a dangerous regime, argues Nigel Gould-Davies.
My paper on the coming crisis in Russia's political economy. Explores the paradox that Russia is fighting a major war while paying, not compelling, its resources to do so. This is unsustainable. Kremlin-linked outlets have noticed the paper and responsed. www.iiss.org/research-pap...
The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy
Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.
iiss.org
Excellent overview of the choices the Russian economy and political system are now facing by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social www.iiss.org/research-pap...
The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy
Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.
iiss.org
Opinion: Russia's war on Ukraine is not a stalemate. On land, sea and air, in sanctions’ design and enforcement, and in the geography of resourcing, the war is escalating and will continue to do so, writes @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social.
Russia's War on Ukraine Isn't at a Stalemate. That Encourages Escalation. - The Moscow Times
Opinion | This article was originally published by the International Institue for Strategic Studies.
themoscowtimes.com
Wow. Rubikon have caused significant difficulties for Ukraine. This defection, if genuine, could be a significant source of intelligence.
NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 8mo agoA Russian drone operator from the elite “Rubikon” unit has defected to Ukraine, according to an interview published by the Ukrainian intelligence project “I Want to Live.” Miroslav Simonov said he underwent UAV training in Russia, was deployed near Kupyansk, and later crossed to Ukrainian positions.
My essay for Survival (the IISS journal) on the personal as geopolitical. Draws on my diplomatic past and present observations of the Trump presidency. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Human Textures: The Personal as Geopolitical
While orthodox strategic arguments hover in the background, Trump himself speaks of international relations in visceral, tactile, intimate terms rather than bloodless abstractions of interest and values.
iiss.org
My latest on the sound and fury --and predictable insignificance-- of the latest round of Russia-Ukraine diplomacy: www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Russia–Ukraine: turbulent diplomacy
A tumultuous week has consumed much energy, changed little and exposed Europe’s weakness.
iiss.org
Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“
Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · last yr.Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.
Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · last yr.Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
iiss.org
Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.
iiss.org
Delighted to speak at this truly excellent conference. #HSF25
Helsinki Security Forum@helsinkisecurityforum.fi · last yr.Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order. European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social. “We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”
"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime." Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social
Russia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than ever
Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.
iiss.org
Rarely has a major summit been so significant, hastily prepared, and uncertain in outcome. My latest for IISS 👇 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Alaska: moment of truth?
The imminent summit in Alaska could well prove a decisive moment for Europe, Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
iiss.org
Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...
Europe's sidelined leaders urge Trump to defend security interests at his summit with Putin
European Union leaders have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.
apnews.com
An exceptionally fluid moment in international relations. I am more cautiously optimistic than many. 🧵👇 /1 www.iiss.org/online-analy...
Russia’s bad month of diplomacy
Trump’s relationship with Putin has never been worse. If NATO implements its new spending commitments, and Trump his sanctions, time may no longer be on Russia’s side.
iiss.org
Personal news, which I rarely share here. My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others". My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.
Becky Anderson asked me about Trump's latest outburst against Putin. "As a fellow Brit, you'll be familiar with the phrase 'all mouth and no trousers'."
If you need a bit of a primer on this electronic war stuff, I've got you covered: www.wired.com/story/electr...
The Invisible Russia-Ukraine Battlefield
In Russia’s war against Ukraine, electronic warfare, including signal-jamming, anti-drone weapons, and innovative protections for critical military systems, has become a key piece of the conflict.
wired.com
