Tessera
Folgen

Nigel Gould-Davies

@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social

Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia, International Institute for Strategic Studies. Contributing editor, Survival. Fmr Ambassador to Belarus. Victims' rights advocate. Views mine.

68 Posts574 Follower177 Folgt
Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · last mo.

My paper on the coming crisis in Russia's political economy. Explores the paradox that Russia is fighting a major war while paying, not compelling, its resources to do so. This is unsustainable. Kremlin-linked outlets have noticed the paper and responsed. www.iiss.org/research-pap...

The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy

Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.

iiss.org

Iikka Korhonen@iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Excellent overview of the choices the Russian economy and political system are now facing by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social www.iiss.org/research-pap...

The Coming Crisis in Russia’s Political Economy

Facing growing industrial and manpower constraints, Russia must soon decide whether to forcibly mobilise its economy and society for its war against Ukraine. The consequences for Russia’s stability and Europe’s security will be profound.

iiss.org

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Wow. Rubikon have caused significant difficulties for Ukraine. This defection, if genuine, could be a significant source of intelligence.

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 6mo ago

A Russian drone operator from the elite “Rubikon” unit has defected to Ukraine, according to an interview published by the Ukrainian intelligence project “I Want to Live.” Miroslav Simonov said he underwent UAV training in Russia, was deployed near Kupyansk, and later crossed to Ukrainian positions.

Edward Walker@gnuggat.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Good take, IMO. NB: “RU’s behaviour will inevitably grow more risky and aggressive unless it faces unacceptable costs. The question is whether EUR will demonstrate… that it is ready to impose these. Failure to do so will merely postpone, not avert, confrontation.“

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

R Phelps@greygosling.bsky.social · 10mo ago

This is v good on why time is now on Ukraine's side. We urgently need more thinking that acknowledges how screwed Putin is and what comes next (like here, on Ru escalation, or on what the West must insist is in any peace deal), rather than the usual musings on Russian strength.

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

Ivan U. KŁYSZCZ@ivanklyszcz.com · 10mo ago

Very important points raised by @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social: ‘time may no longer be on Russia’s side. The balance of material and technological potential vastly favours its adversaries. Russia can now prevail only [...] by undermining their resolve.’ www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

iiss.org

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 10mo ago

Time may no longer be on Russia's side. US, EU and Chinese policies, and domestic strains, are reshaping Russia's calculus. So it is challenging Western resolve in risker ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds. www.iiss.org/online-analy...

The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a new phase

Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more risky and aggressive ways. This is certain to escalate unless Europe responds.

iiss.org

Brian Taylor@bdtaylor-su.bsky.social · 12mo ago

"There is currently no sign Putin will scale back his expansive ambitions unless he concludes that continuing to pursue them may call into question the security of his regime." Sharp and succinct as always from @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social

Russia–Ukraine: peace looks more remote than ever

Russia has not scaled back its ambitions and America will not pressure it to do so. Territorial issues and security guarantees are currently second-order issues. The war remains intractable.

iiss.org

Emma Burrows@eburrows.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Trump & Putin’s Alaska summit is a “profoundly alarming moment for Europe.” Putin might persuade Trump to accept Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine or lift sanctions. That would cause a “really serious” transatlantic alliance split @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social apnews.com/article/euro...

Europe's sidelined leaders urge Trump to defend security interests at his summit with Putin

European Union leaders have urged U.S. President Donald Trump to defend their security interests at Friday's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the war in Ukraine.

apnews.com

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · last yr.

Personal news, which I rarely share here. My stalker was sentenced to 6 years for a "campaign of psychological cruelty". She has a "long and truly appalling" criminal record, and has spent her life "harming others". My deepest thanks to everyone who has supported me through this ordeal.

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · last yr.

Personal news, which I rarely share here. Yesterday my stalker was found guilty on all four counts in a unanimous verdict. My deepest thanks to all who have supported me through this 18-month ordeal. I don't have the words to express my gratitude.

James Crabtree@jamescrabtree.bsky.social · last yr.

"Some in Washington argue that America can conduct a ‘reverse Kissinger’ that detaches Moscow from its quasi-alliance with Beijing. The analogy is historically uninformed and strategically illiterate." @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social on US "diplomatic surrender" www.iiss.org/online-analy...

America’s strategic diplomatic surrender

America is pre-emptively ceding fundamental and long-held positions to Russia in the hope of ending a war it is not fighting. This is likely to make it less, not more, secure.

iiss.org

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 2y ago

EU importing (now record levels of) LNG from Russia. More important still, importing plenty of Russian oil, via Indian refineries, despite its Russian oil embargo. US can replace this.

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 2y ago

SitRep - 21/12/24 - A record Russian LNG imports by the EU. An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU set a new record: it imported a record of Russian LNG. This is what drives the Russian war machine. REPOST=appreciated 1/X

Nigel Gould-Davies@nigelgould-davies.bsky.social · 2y ago

"Whatever it takes." Europe's population: c. 500m Europe's military help for Ukraine: c. EUR 50bn = EUR 100 per citizen Divide by 33 months of war = EUR 3.0 => Europe's military help = 1 cup of coffee per citizen per month. We can do more.