V informative. NB: “In 2021, RU’s share of Transnistrian exports was a modest 14%. The war accelerated this process. By July 2026, this figure had fallen to 8.4%, while the EU became the dominant market, accounting for 77% of all exports.” Important added factor: RU military presence is v limited.

Anton Barbashin@abarbashin.bsky.social · 2h ago

Although Russia has tried to project strength in Transnistria to offset vulnerabilities exposed by Ukraine’s drone campaign, Transnistria will continue to gravitate toward Moscow as long as benefits of its relationship with Russia outweigh those it could obtain from West. ridl.io/status-quo-u...

Grim. RU in the dystopia vanguard. NB: “Crime and terrorism will be transformed next, followed by the work of lawyers and police. Today’s bizarre dystopia, something we view in video clips coming from Ukraine, might be tomorrow’s new normal.”

Anne Applebaum@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu · 1h ago

The experience of being chased by a murderous kamikaze drone, a flying machine that behaves as if it were alive, is not one that humans are equipped to understand: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

The assassination “domain” seems to be picking up steam on multiple fronts.

NOELREPORTS@noelreports.com · 4h ago

Die Zeit reports Russian intelligence planned to assassinate Stefan Thumann, head of German drone maker Donaustahl. German services thwarted the plot after allied countries warned them, and Thumann is now under increased protection. He has not attended trade fairs for security reasons. #Ukraine

Interesting and informative. NB: “But it is still puzzling that RU propaganda makes two claims (a largely constant troop strength and enormous recruitment) that, taken together, imply something catastrophic for RU (huge losses).” If accurate, implies attrition rate of almost 50% per yr!

Janis Kluge@jakluge.de · 2d ago

Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos...

🇰🇵 North Korea is deploying a missile unit to Russia to take part in the war against Ukraine, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence reports. The unit is equipped with KN-23/24 ballistic missiles and their launchers. Russia expects North Korea to provide 120 missiles for future attacks.

Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦@perevaa.bsky.social · 12h ago

1 killed, 15 injured in Kyiv. 14 killed, 27 injured in Kyiv oblast. Hell.

Ukraine’s air defense missile supplies have dropped threefold compared with 2025, Zelensky said, warning that Kyiv faces growing shortages as Russia intensifies ballistic missile attacks. www.kyivpost.com/post/81763

Ukraine’s Air Defense Missile Supplies Drop Threefold as Kyiv Warns Partners Have Stockpiles Available

The shortfall comes amid reports that Washington rejected Ukraine’s request for additional Patriot interceptors and scaled back earlier commitments.

kyivpost.com

Russian FPV drone developer Vladimir Tkachuk was critically injured in a car bombing near Yekaterinburg. Investigators have opened an attempted murder case. Tkachuk, who also runs a pro-war Telegram channel with more than 660,000 followers, remains in intensive care. www.kyivpost.com/post/81767

Thread. Not good. NB: “This raises monumental questions about how Ukraine will navigate through the winter season - if Ukrainian energy infrastructure remains defenseless and is destroyed, it will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe and a massive wave of migration into the EU.”

Anton Gerashchenko@antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 3h ago

Last night, #Ukraine was unable to shoot down any of the 28 missiles launched by Russia: 24 ballistic missiles and 4 hypersonic "Tsircon" missiles. Since last Saturday alone, over 50 ballistic missiles have been launched at Kyiv and nearby⤵️ 📷: Russian attacks last night

Last night, #Ukraine was unable to shoot down any of the 28 missiles launched by Russia: 24 ballistic missiles and 4 hypersonic "Tsircon" missiles. Since last Saturday alone, over 50 ballistic missiles have been launched at Kyiv and nearby⤵️ 📷: Russian attacks last night

Interesting and informative, particularly re UKR LRS targeting and UKR cruise and ballistic missile developments.

Phillips OBrien@phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 12h ago

Hi all, I had the pleasure of doing a Substack live with @frhoffmann.bsky.social last night. A deep dive into the Ukraine-Russia missile war and where ranged warfare is heading globally. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

Russian strikes on Aug 5 destroyed PUMA, INTERTOP and LIQUI MOLY warehouses and logistics hubs in Kyiv.

Russian missiles destroyed an Epicentr M logistics center in Kyiv overnight, as well as the production facilities of the Epicentr Ceramic Corporation plant in Kalynivka. 1 killed, 3 injured. The company is suspending operations at the ceramics plant and moving production to 2 facilities abroad.

Thread. NB: “This marks the third major strike on ROZETKA in just a few days.”

Alina Pereverzieva 🇺🇦@perevaa.bsky.social · 3h ago

On August 5, Russian forces destroyed Rozetka UA main distribution warehouse complex in Brovary with three ballistic missile strikes.

Russian forces used cluster munitions to increase casualties. Three people were killed – two drivers working for a partner carrier and one contractor. Eight more people were injured.

French is a bit more alarmist than I am but I share this for sure: “I’ve often wondered what it was like to be alive in the summer of 1914, much less in 1938 and 1939… Speak up too soon or too frequently, and you look ridiculous… Speak up too late, and you live (if you live) with bitter regret.”

John Sipher@johnsipher.bsky.social · yesterday

“Our future may depend in part on American voters deciding to give Congress a spinal transplant. But that requires us to…see the catastrophe coming and act decisively before a terrible war swallows the world.” www.nytimes.com/2026/08/02/o...

Thread. NB: “Wildberries accounts for roughly 45% of russia’s entire e-commerce market. And roughly 2% of russias total GDP. So offcourse taxes are only small part of the loans, pay, trade, inflation, workforce, military logistics web. In short, it will get worse.”

Sven-Erik Volberg@volberg.bsky.social · yesterday

One problem is, that this short form makes taking on complex themes difficult and, honestly tedious. And macro economic post tends to get less popularity than 'big fire ball good'. But I'll take on one of the many interlinked ones and expand on Wildberries from tax angle, 🧵 1/12

“According to… MarineTraffic, the Yasar and Nadezhda fly the flags of Panama and Cameroon, respectively, but are owned by Turkish companies. UKR officials, who frequently claim responsibility for strikes on RU warships and “shadow fleet” oil tankers, have not commented on the attacks.”

The Moscow Times@themoscowtimes.com · yesterday

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said the civilian ships Yasar and Nadezhda were attacked after departing Novorossiysk on Monday evening, injuring several crew members, including Turkish citizens.

❗️Before European sanctions on Russian LNG took effect, Russia started building a shadow fleet of gas carriers. According to the Financial Times, it currently has about 25 such tankers: two built at the Zvezda shipyard, four sailing under the Russian flag after purchase,

Another Wildberries logistics center is burning after a Ukrainian drone strike. Here's what the latest attack looked like. meduza.io/en/feature/2...

Ukraine has hit 20 Wildberries warehouses since mid-July. Photos and videos show the aftermath of the latest strike on a logistics center in Russia’s Leningrad region. — Meduza

Overnight on August 4, Ukrainian drones attacked a Wildberries warehouse in the village of Krasny Bor in Russia’s Leningrad region, sparking a major fire. The company says it carried out an “advance…

meduza.io

Unbelievable self-harm. NB: “The missiles are principally the Army’s surface-to-surface weapons, known as Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM). The U.S. has used “virtually all” of these weapons, according to two of the sources.”

CNBC@cnbc.com · yesterday

U.S. has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war: Reuters

Janis makes a key point here: "It is puzzling that Russian propaganda makes two claims (a largely constant troop strength and enormous recruitment) that, taken together, imply something catastrophic for Russia (huge losses)." He estimates they lose 43-45% of their troops in Ukraine EACH YEAR.

Janis Kluge@jakluge.de · 2d ago

Attention: new original data source unlocked! Based on federal budget reports, I estimated the number of Russian troops in Ukraine, both mobilized and contract soldiers. The numbers are based on different salary top-ups that Russian troops in Ukraine receive. janiskluge.substack.com/p/the-compos...

❗️Russian oil refining fell to 3.6 million barrels per day in July, down 150,000 bpd from June, according to Bloomberg. The report says this is Russia's lowest monthly refining rate since May 2002. For comparison, July 2021 averaged 5.59 million bpd. #Russia

The Moroccan government confirmed that the Ceuta migration wave was organized and amplified through social media. A similar campaign is currently being run on TikTok, where people from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq are being encouraged to migrate through Belarus to EU via the Baltic states. 1/2

Growth is surprising positively in Germany and Italy. The latter is likely to grow twice as fast as the IMF forecasts. Meanwhile, growth in the US is increasingly struggling to keep up with lofty expectations. This picture will tend to push EUR/$ higher... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/recession-...

Yeah. Wasn’t sure what was meant by “aerial” but if it means end to all LRSs then I agree. But I suppose it’s possible to start with an agreement on targeting in addition to energy, like civilian warehouses. Given RU is targeting aparts/drone hunting civilians, hard to see even that anytime soon.

@corneliu.bsky.social · 2d ago

imi there’s no way Russia gives up its only palpable advantage, i.e long range balistics. might as well cease fire altogether.

Thread. NB: “ Political leaders also need to decide whether they would be willing to attack a nuclear-armed adversary's ability to launch ballistic missiles at the source—"fshooting the archer," as envisioned in NATO military doctrine/op.concept.”

Franz-Stefan Gady@hoanssolo.bsky.social · 2d ago

My latest for @foreignpolicy.com: Ukraine's air defense problem should trigger a serious debate among the United States and its European NATO partners—and force them to rethink how they expect to cope with massed ballistic missile attacks in a great-power war. foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/03/n...

New, more powerful UK made/designed engines. Great upgrade not only for technical upgrade but also for availability

UNITED24 Media@united24media.com · 2d ago

⚡ Ukraine reportedly breaks major production bottleneck for its FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile. united24media.com/defense-tech...

IMO a smart/reasonable sequence. IMO very unlikely Putin signs on in foreseeable future, but I don’t think that (the foreseeable future) re the war is much more than, say, six months.

🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦@militarynewsua.bsky.social · 2d ago

❗️Zelenskyy proposes an aerial ceasefire, an energy ceasefire, freezing the war along the front line, and starting difficult negotiations. He is also ready to meet with Putin, — advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Podolyak.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Thread. Article behind a paywall for me but NB: “There is no clear way out of Russia's dilemma - the country has a shrinking labor force in the midst of a demanding war.”

Samuel Bendett@sambendett.bsky.social · 2d ago

When looking through open source and public info about Russian defense industry and economy, it became clear that Russia has no clear solution for its labor issues. In this Foreign Policy article, we describe this dilemma - with @msnegovaya.bsky.social foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/03/r...

bsky.app/profile/robe...

Scott Horton@robertscotthorton.bsky.social · 3d ago

A significant and largely unreported story: Trump is directing the final withdrawal of all US forces from Iraq, which will inevitably be viewed as a major victory for Iran in the current war, and is driven by the fact that US positions there are indefensible due to Russian targeting assistance.