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Ernesto Tiburcio

@ernestotiburcio.bsky.social

Postdoc at the Goldman School | Mexicano y Sabiniano | Truth rarely lies in the middle.

9 Posts215 Follower299 Folgt
Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · last yr.

1/🧵 "More voters help Republicans" is reshaping Dem strategy after 2024. We put this claim to the test with a deep dive into voter files and survey data. Results? Non-voters remain disproportionately Democratic while GOP simply turns out their base better.

Does Higher Turnout Now Help Republicans? A Data-Driven Analysis of Partisan Turnout Dynamics (Part 1)

Data analysis reveals Democrats' problem isn't high turnout—it's losing the mobilization battle

open.substack.com

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · last yr.

Big deal—after correcting, it turns out that moderate candidates do not perform better than extreme candidates in general elections. Kudos to Andy, Dan, and Adam for updating a key question in political science

Andy Hall & @ahall_research In 2018, Dan Thompson and I published a paper in the APSR estimating large vote share and turnout effects for the nomination of more-extreme House candidates in the 2006--2014 period. Recently, Adam Bonica showed us an important imbalance in the data from our paper that makes us doubt our findings. We've written an update to the paper explaining this issue here: andrewbeniaminhall.com/hall _thompson_... We have four main takeaways from this exercise: (1) The evidence in our sample from 2006--2014 that more-extreme nominees cause large changes in a party's vote share or share of general-election turnout is far weaker than we previously thought, and should not be relied on. (2) Because our sample of years does not provide a sufficiently large, stable effect on vote share, the design is unsuitable for understanding whether there is an underlying relationship
Carl T. Bergstrom@carlbergstrom.com · 2y ago

Science is political. It wouldn't necessarily have to be partisan. But when one party is opposed to science-based policy, scientists have a choice between saying "you're right, thoughts and prayers are probably as effective as reducing carbon emissions" or saying "fuck that."

Maya Sen@mayasen.bsky.social · 2y ago

There is a real pattern where centrists in positions of authority are radicalized sharply rightward after being scolded/criticized by more liberal young people Happens at universities too!

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