Ernie Tedeschi
@ernietedeschi.bsky.social
Personal Account. Chief economist at Stripe. Former Director of Economics, The Budget Lab at Yale University. Former Chief Economist, White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Everyone’s talking about the K-shaped economy—the rich pulling away while everyone else stagnates. In our inaugural Stripe Economics post, I take a look at Stripe + macro data, and I see the K on Wall Street, but not yet on Main Street stripeeconomics.substack.com/p/k-shaped-e...
stripeeconomics.substack.com
The US Employment Situation, December 2025 Unemployment Rate 4.4% (Nov 4.6%) Payroll Employment +50K (Nov +56K) 3MMA -22K 2M Revisions: -76K
The US Employment Situation, September 2025 NFP: +119K (62K 3MMA, -33K 2M revisions) U3: 4.4%
Some professional news. Excited to start today as chief economist at Stripe. Looking forward to working with & learning from the brilliant people there to produce data-centered insights and research.
I'm open to the possibility that AI is having a nonzero effect on the labor market. But the varied mix of firms announcing layoffs strikes me as more consistent with the main driver here being a correction from over-hiring in the wake of the pandemic. www.wsj.com/economy/jobs...
Some professional news: Today is my last day full-time at @budgetlab.bsky.social It was an honor & a privilege to call the TBL team "coworkers" over the last 18 months. Intelligent, curious, & utterly collegial. What they've built & accomplished in so short a time is just stunning. 1/3
I'm in @opinion.bloomberg.com today talking about three "partial truths" in the US economic narrative. "Partial truths" are not myths--they have more than a kernel of fact behind them--but they demand caution, asterisks, and grains of salt. www.bloomberg.com/op... 1/9
AI’s Effect on the US Economy Is Exaggerated
Sometimes there are economic narratives that don’t quite deserve a debunking — they have more than a kernel of truth to them — but rather demand an appropriate level of skepticism. Three such stories are widespread today.
bloomberg.com
New report this morning from @budgetlab.bsky.social thinking through the challenges of distributional fiscal analysis when a policy is deficit-financed. We talk about the issues and present our preferred methodology. 1/7
Phenomenal opportunity for macroeconomists of all levels. Truly cannot recommend the Yale Budget Lab team enough. I've worked extremely closely with most of the people there, and their simultaneous dedication to accuracy and usefulness while ensuring the work environment is enjoyable is unmatched.
Martha Gimbel@marthagimbel.bsky.social · 11mo agoHi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
Hi all! We're still waiting on the official posting - but @budgetlab.bsky.social is looking for a new macro hire to add to our team! We're agnostic on level (Recent PhD, decades of experience, MA+ research experience, who knows?) - we care more about flexible thinking and curiosity
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update out tonight, incorporating the heavy truck, furniture, and pharmaceutical tariffs announced by President Trump yesterday. Details are still sparse; we will update in the future as more specifics about the policy are published. In brief... 1/10
The preliminary benchmark revision of -911K amounts to -0.6% to March 2025 payroll employment. Combined with 2-month revisions, recent total revisions are big but hardly unprecedented, & smoothed over the business cycle the payroll survey has gotten more accurate over time.
The larger-than-usual downward revision last month was in large part driven by a negative skew in the job growth distribution among late reporting firms. That’s unusual, but it’s happened before when the pace of job growth slows rapidly. This print is more evidence that was the case
Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · last yr.U.S. employers added 22,000 jobs in August and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09... #NumbersDay
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all tariffs through Sept 3. This is a major update. We: • incorporate higher assumptions about Canada & Mexico tariff-free import shares; • show 2 scenarios: all tariffs & no IEEPA tariffs after Jun 2026. In brief... 1/12
We have a new @budgetlab.bsky.social report out today looking at the short-run effects of tariffs so far. Basically, we asked the questions, "What do we see in actual data to date, and how does it compare to our priors." In brief... 1/13
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating all 2025 tariffs through today, including the higher 50% rate on India. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the Administration's new list of "reciprocal" tariffs published last night and going into effect August 7, as well as maintaining the 25% rate on Mexico. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 25% tariff on India, up from our previously-assumed 10% and which goes into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 15% EU tariffs, down from our prior 30% assumption. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating policy through July 22, including the new "reciprocal" tariff rates on Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 30% Mexico & EU tariff rates, which, like the rest of last week's letters and the 50% copper tariff, go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating the 35% Canada tariffs, which go into effect August 1 (along with the 22 letters and the copper tariffs). In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the 50% copper tariff, and 2) the July 7 & 9 letters to 22 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates. Both go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
New @budgetlab.bsky.social tariff analysis incorporating 1) the US-Vietnam framework announced July 2, and 2) the July 7 letters to 14 countries with new "reciprocal" tariff rates, which go into effect August 1. In brief... 1/10
Initial claims fall to 227K NSA, expected this week in summer & almost exactly in line with 2018, 2019, 2023, & 2024 (1st chart). Initial claims a smidge *below* those years as a share of employment (2nd). Continuing claims as a share of employment a smidge *higher* (3rd).
@budgetlab.bsky.social tariff update through June 16, incorporating: • Broader scope for the 50% steel & aluminum tariffs to include some steel-derivative products. • Relaxation of Chinese export restrictions on magnets & rate minerals. • New distributional methodology. 1/9
New analysis from @budgetlab.bsky.social: if you combine the distributional impact of tariffs so far with CBO's new OBBBA distribution, the bottom 80% of households see a decline in income, and the 9th decile is close to neutral. Only the top 10% see a clear net benefit. 1/3
Initial claims jump to 245K NSA, as would be expected this time of year. Claims still w/i the band of recent non-recessionary years, both in headcount terms (1st) & normalized to employment (2nd). Continuing claims however undoubtedly higher, though not substantially so far (3rd)
Two new pieces from @budgetlab.bsky.social (links at end). First, TBL finds that the rise in interest rates associated with OBBBA will raise consumer & business costs. E.g., by 2030, the annual mortgage payment on a typical home purchase would rise by >$1,000, & by $4,000 by 2030. 1/3
