Governor Cook thinks the vibecession comes down to: 1) growing job insecurity from potential AI disruption 2) lack of affordability in big ticket items: housing, health care, childcare 3) persistently elevated inflation broadly for 5yrs + www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/s...

Speech by Governor Cook on the outlook for the U.S. and Alaskan economies

Thank you, Jon, for that kind introduction. It is an honor to be here in Alaska. I appreciate the invitation from the Anchorage Economic Development Corporatio

federalreserve.gov

GOLDMAN: ".. We do not place much weight on the ADP miss because of ADP’s limited real-time correlation with BLS private payrolls over the last few years. We left our forecast for July nonfarm payroll growth unchanged at +75k (vs. +80k consensus) ahead of Friday’s release."

For 2026 nonresidential bldgs construction spending, Data Centers +40%, +$20bil Manufacturing -20%, -$43bil Nothing else even comes close to the impact these two have on overall spending, but also notice, a 40% gain in DC is not enough to offset a 20% decline in Mnfg.

No pick-up in hiring yet, but we may have already hit bottom on job openings.

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · 2d ago

The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers has ticked back over 1:1. Suggests that (in the aggregate) it has gotten a bit easier to find a job, though still nothing like the "Great Resignation" heyday of 2021-22.

7 out of 10 cities with the largest home price declines from their peak are in FL and TX (Freddie repeat sales index)

Bill McBride@calculatedrisk.bsky.social · 2d ago

Here are the 30 cities with the largest price declines

Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Associate Professor of Finance at the Yale School of Management, presented "Using AI in Household Finance Research: A Practical Guide" at the Household Finance Conference during the 2026 Summer Institute. www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5g6...

Tornado watch in effect, thanks MD for setting me straight forever on this

Yearly bear cam maintenance staff reporting for duty.

Chart o the day via @financialtimes.com

This is a promising signal future hiring likely

Guy Berger@econberger.bsky.social · 2w ago

3/ "Human resources" (incl recruiting) job postings growing briskly, almost at a 2-year high. I imagine we'll be back at pre-COVID levels sometime in early 2027.

Really nice Substack post from Ernie Tedeschi at Stripe on AI and productivity: substack.com/home/post/p-...

AI and productivity

The story in the data so far (briefly)

substack.com

Great story from 'The Daily' today on the evolution of the US construction industry from a highly unionized, well-paid workforce in the 1970s to one that largely relies on non-union immigrant labor. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/22/p...

Trump’s Clashing Goals: More Housing, Fewer Immigrants

nytimes.com

When I ran BLS, I was asked constantly about the impact of AI on jobs. It's still one of the most common questions I get. So we put together a policy brief - for policymakers, journalists, and anyone trying to sort through what is happening with AI and jobs: siepr.stanford.edu/publications...

The FT on whether AI is showing up in productivity www.ft.com/content/3fcd...

Goldman Sachs on the Fed data task force:

1/ Trump signed 50% tariffs on Canada today under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Worth walking through the legal mechanics, the USMCA leverage play behind it, and what it costs.

As the US industrialized, workers and businesses entered protracted labor disputes over what a fair pay increase would be to keep up with the cost of living. Workers thought businesses were gaslighting them about how much prices were going up...🧵

Lemondrop 👉 anime arbor! 📚@lipstick-lemondrop.bsky.social · 3w ago

holy moly @hausofdecline.bsky.social in @inthesetimes.com ???

New #FEDSNote: The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact : www.federalreserve.gov/econres/note... #EconSky

The AI Buildout and the Economy: Publicly Available Data to Assess AI's Impact

The Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington DC.

federalreserve.gov

I cannot tell you how many people have complained to me that we don't have a national survey asking how people use AI. If that includes you, here's your chance to comment on BLS's plans to ask about AI use in the American Time Use Survey starting in Jan. '27 fedscoop.com/bureau-of-la...

Labor seeks public feedback ahead of nationwide AI survey launch

The agency’s Bureau of Labor Statistics opened a two-month comment period ahead of its January 2027 launch of a survey on public adoption of and time spent on AI.

fedscoop.com

The Chief Economist at Indeed just posted that software development job posting growth is outpacing overall job posting growth:

NY FED: “.. nearly half of firms that have paid tariffs still plan additional price increases to offset these costs, with some expecting to raise prices six months or more in the future.” @scottlincicome.bsky.social libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/07/more...

New SF Fed index "improves inflation forecasts at one-year to three-year horizons....Recent index readings have fluctuated above and below zero, indicating that inflation may remain near current levels in the near to medium term."

Using Inflation Shock Patterns to Help Forecast Inflation - San Francisco Fed

A new indicator—the Inflation Shock Momentum Index—can help identify emerging inflationary or disinflationary pressures in real time. The index tracks the shares of consumer spending categories that a...

frbsf.org

Lightning photobombs DC's fireworks show. Remarkable images shared with us by Russell Moy.

A $3 @mta.info subway fare and some good Q train timing can buy you one hell of a view of the July 4th fireworks and the Brooklyn Bridge light show! Huge shoutout to the train operator for slow rolling over the Manhattan Bridge and the conductor for announcing it.

What is the effect of immigrant manual labor on US firms and workers? @ethan-lewis.bsky.social and I study this with a nationwide randomized visa lottery in our new @aeajournals.bsky.social paper. We decompose the substitution & scale effects, which I'll explain, in a new @piie.com post. Thread—>

this stuff is absolutely wild all that hand-wringing about egg prices!

FT Edit@ftedit.ft.com · last mo.

How US egg producers gamed prices while blaming bird flu ft.trib.al/xxPS5Gr #FTEdit

The data paints a mixed picture because it’s still early days for the technology. There’s actually a fair bit of public data and researcher surveys but there could be more. Well worth a read -

Ben Casselman@bencasselman.bsky.social · last mo.

Is A.I. creating jobs or killing them? Adding to inflation or fixing it? Boosting productivity or doing little? Nobody knows. And our data (public & private) isn't providing clear answers. My latest on the A.I. data gap and the challenge it poses for policymakers: www.nytimes.com/2026/07/02/b...

As a new Fed Chair casts doubt on offical statistics after the Aministration drastically cut their funding, it is worth remembering how and why we created federal statistics agencies in the first place...they reduce scope for gaslighting the public www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf...

It’s so hot here in DC that when I opened the door to let the bulldog outside, she took one step out of the air conditioning and turned around and came back inside

Important nuance in today’s report, the drop in unemployment reflects weakness, not strength, in the household data that looks like statistical noise. Big picture is unemployment rate that has been unusually steady for a while now

Daniel Zhao@danielzhao.bsky.social · last mo.

The unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June, down from 4.3% in May, but it fell for the wrong reasons. The decline was driven in part by the labor force participation rate falling sharply to 61.5%, lowest since March 2021. 7/