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John Kennedy

@micefearboggis.bsky.social

Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. https://www.jkclimate.fr/

2250 Posts3425 Follower3363 Folgt
Amy Hoy@amyhoy.bsky.social · 1h ago

“Individuals aren’t naturally paid-up members of the human race, except biologically. They need to be bounced around by the Brownian motion of society, which is a mechanism by which human beings constantly remind one another that they are… well… human beings.” - Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms

Hagen Blix@hagenblix.bsky.social · 2h ago

The better AI gets, the more (and more subtle) AI psychoses we're gonna see, especially among intellectually inclined people. Not because the machines make you insane, but because it's becoming painfully obvious that sanity isn't just an individual-level property, but something social, ...

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d ago

All else being equal even a simple increase in the mean of the temperature distribution will lead to extreme heat above a particular threshold that's more frequent, more intense, lasts longer and covers a wider area (you'll have to imagine that third dimension).

Schematic titled "warming increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme heat" which shows a temperature trace as a red line in three different climates (COLD climate, CURRENT climate and HOT climate) which only differ in that each one is warmer than the last by a constant offset. A fixed baseline and heatwave threshold are also shown as horizontal lines and these do not change. Areas that exceed the heatwave threshold are shaded pink. The pink shaded area is larger in the current climate than in the cold climate and smaller than in the hot climate. In the cold climate an annotation points to a single isolated pink-shaded heatwave and says "isolated heatwave". In the current climate an annotation points to three distinct heatwaves and says "more frequent, long heatwaves". Finally in the hot climate an annotation says "duration and frequency continue to increase" and "isolated cooler period" for there is only one short period that is not now classified as a heatwave.
John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 7d ago

All else being equal even a simple increase in the mean of the temperature distribution will lead to extreme heat above a particular threshold that's more frequent, more intense, lasts longer and covers a wider area (you'll have to imagine that third dimension).

Schematic titled "warming increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme heat" which shows a temperature trace as a red line in three different climates (COLD climate, CURRENT climate and HOT climate) which only differ in that each one is warmer than the last by a constant offset. A fixed baseline and heatwave threshold are also shown as horizontal lines and these do not change. Areas that exceed the heatwave threshold are shaded pink. The pink shaded area is larger in the current climate than in the cold climate and smaller than in the hot climate. In the cold climate an annotation points to a single isolated pink-shaded heatwave and says "isolated heatwave". In the current climate an annotation points to three distinct heatwaves and says "more frequent, long heatwaves". Finally in the hot climate an annotation says "duration and frequency continue to increase" and "isolated cooler period" for there is only one short period that is not now classified as a heatwave.
Gavin Schmidt@climateofgavin.bsky.social · last wk.

My entry into the warmest year discourse... Over the years, I've used a couple of methods to estimate annual mean anomalies before they happen - using projected ENSO signals at the end of the previous year, or just from the relationship between the YTD data and the final annual average.

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · last wk.

I liked Affinity (Designer and the rest) - I even paid for it - but now to start it up I get redirected to a website to login to a piece of software stored and run on my own computer. And then it takes five minutes to install updates. What happened?

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · last wk.

It's striking how similar are the patterns of the highest and lowest temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere in June 1976 and June 2026 and also how much warmer 2026 is overall. Not an original idea, but unusually clear example of how a similar weather pattern is much warmer now than then.

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · last wk.

It's striking how similar are the patterns of the highest and lowest temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere in June 1976 and June 2026 and also how much warmer 2026 is overall. Not an original idea, but unusually clear example of how a similar weather pattern is much warmer now than then.

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 2w ago

1. Read paper about exciting dataset 2. Data available on zenodo 3. Download, unzip 4. Find file named “instructions for downloading data.txt” 5. Click on http (no s) link in file 6. Find that link now goes to a photo album. Nice pictures, no data. 7. Email author 8. It’s august so…

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3w ago

Minor update on the very long thread about weirdly or not so weirdly high global temperatures. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/04/a...

An egregious encomium or execration of the evanescent, ephemeral, and effervescent made eternal and enduring through the excretions of an eejit

Part VI of my alliterative and rambling notes on a minor anomaly. Part I – A multitude of possibly unsatisfying answers Part II – A panoply of trifling dissatisfactions Part III –&nb…

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com

John Kennedy@micefearboggis.bsky.social · 3w ago

Minor update on the very long thread about weirdly or not so weirdly high global temperatures. diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/04/a...

An egregious encomium or execration of the evanescent, ephemeral, and effervescent made eternal and enduring through the excretions of an eejit

Part VI of my alliterative and rambling notes on a minor anomaly. Part I – A multitude of possibly unsatisfying answers Part II – A panoply of trifling dissatisfactions Part III –&nb…

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com