John Kennedy

@micefearboggis.bsky.social

Occasional climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian, science anti-communicator. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it’s a disclaimer. He/him. https://www.jkclimate.fr/

El Niño... wait for it! With observations updated through September. Long-term observations (HadISST back to 1870, gray) Satellite record (OIv2 back to 1982, black) Dynamical model ensemble mean from the IRI plume (red).

Ok comms gurus… if we’re talking about ocean heat content and earth’s energy imbalance which units are preferable: ZJ and ZJ per year or W/m²year and W/m². Or something else. Or putting everything in terms of some energy equivalent like how much energy humans use each year.

I’ve updated the long-running (starts 1866) CRU Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). This lets us compare the currently developing El Niño with earlier events including 1877-78. 2026 has developed very quickly, similar to the 1997-98 one. Thick line is 3-month running mean, with y-axis reversed.

1866-present timeseries of Climatic Research Unit SOI with some major El Niño events marked.

Please join me in appreciating how these coffee grounds vaguely resemble a fanged cyclops demon fish, if you are so moved feel free to offer your thoughts on what this predicts for my future

A hand holds up a nearly-empty coffee cup, showing grounds at the bottom. They form a shape resembling a weird deep-sea fish with long fangs and one enormous eye.

Never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean never, open with never, and I mean ne

8 years ago, I tweeted side-by-side maps from NASA GISS showing global temperatures in 1976 and 2018 – both hot summers in the UK. It subsequently went viral and was printed in the Daily Mail! The 2026 version is stark. Two locally extreme summers separated by 50 years of global climate change.

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