Updated the NAM archive on my website to include last winter simonleewx.com/northern-ann...

when i get a citation alert from citing one of my previous papers

Users must sit through a 1 hour lecture on chaos and the limits to predictability, then pass a short quiz, prior to being granted access. If only!

Met Office - weather and climate@metoffice.gov.uk · yesterday

Want to plan ahead? 🌦️ Try our new 14-day forecast on the Met Office beta app 📲 Alongside hourly forecasts for the next 7 days, you can now view daily forecasts for days 8-14, including rain, wind and temp info and certainty levels. Download ⤵️ 🍎 iOS: apple.co/4pB3RDX 🤖 Android: bit.ly/4bGVkcZ

Indeed — it’s not just about getting to net zero, but getting to net zero as soon as possible. I’ve found this is often a point where people finally realise the sheer urgency of addressing climate change. simonleewx.com/2026/06/24/n...

Kees van der Leun@sustainable2050.bsky.social · 3d ago

The nasty little thing with climate change is that the situation progressively gets worse as long as we emit greenhouse gases, and that is irreversible. So there's no happy message "Let's bring emissions to zero and then everything will be alright" Nope, everything will be worse than it is now. 1/

I’ve said it before, but every time I open the Met Office app I find myself baffled by this visualisation. In this example, it turns out that it means yesterday was warmer than any of the following 7 days are forecast to be, while today is the coldest (or joint coldest).

Today is the 20th day of the year in which a temperature of 32 °C or higher has been recorded in the UK - this exceeds the previous record of 19 days in 1995 📈

Meanwhile, north of the border: "Scotland has recorded 69% of its average rainfall and is the only nation not to come close to breaking records." "Scotland has not seen mean temperatures within its top 10 on record."

Met Office - weather and climate@metoffice.gov.uk · 2d ago

July 2026 was an exceptional month for the UK's climate statistics, with records challenged or broken for rainfall, temperature and sunshine. Read more in our press release ⤵️ www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new...

The missing words in the climate conversation are not human-caused climate change, but fossil fuel emissions. By Hayley Fowler and myself: theconversation.com/was-this-hea...

‘Was this heatwave caused by climate change?’ – we’re asking the wrong question

Instead of asking whether climate change caused a heatwave, we should ask how much hotter it became because of fossil fuel emissions.

theconversation.com

Revisiting this from 2 years ago with @hayleyjfowler.bsky.social and Paul Davies after more record-shattering extreme events this summer: theconversation.com/the-climate-...

The climate is changing so fast that we haven’t seen how bad extreme weather could get

Record heat, storms and floods reveal new extremes made possible by climate change.

theconversation.com

If you happen to pick up @newscientist.com this week, I’m on page 46 talking about stale air (literally)

So, it turns out 38.0°C was the maximum on 26 June 2026, not the provisional 37.7°C www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/new... 5th hottest day by maximum temperature on record in the UK.

New June daily temperature records heading into the record books

A new UK and England June daily temperature record of 38°C has been verified by the Met Office’s site weather assessment team, higher than the 37.7°C figure previously reported.

metoffice.gov.uk

Cheeky quasi-shelf cloud on the leading edge of some intense frontal rainfall in east Fife this evening (photo at 19:48)

It's not that climate change is "worse than expected". It just feels worse when it happens to *you*

Scientists warned you about: ♨️ more/longer/hotter heatwaves (hot planet=hot weather) 🌀 stronger storms (warm water=hurricane food) 🌧️ downpours (warm air holds more water vapor) 🌵 droughts (warm air is thirstier) 🔥 fire weather (hotter, drier) 🌊 sea level rise (land ice melts, warm water expands)

Wednesday sees the peak of the heat this week, with temperatures likely reaching 35 Celsius in eastern England📈 This would mark the 7th day of 2026 when the UK has recorded 35°C or higher. Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020🌡️

There's an issue with S2S data populating on the ECDS which has been causing the IFS-based weather regime forecasts on my website to fail (last update 21 July). I believe this should be fixed soon. See also forum.ecmwf.int/t/ecmwf-s2s-...

++BREAKING++ The Daily Telegraph has... *rubs eyes* ...published something sensible about climate change: "I’m coming to the view that the Online Right is going wrong, eschewing compassion or charm, talking itself into corners of angry irrelevance. Take climate change."

When the story of why humanity didn't stop climate change is written, it will feature front pages like this. Even as the skies blacken with climate change-induced wildfires, right wing media continue their relentless crusade against measures to tackle it.

Cairngorms wildfire appears to have affected local cloud formation — notable hole in the cloud deck today, perhaps through locally reduced relative humidity? Imagery: Terra/MODIS via worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov

Yet again tonight's BBC coverage of drought and fires fails to mention cause. News At Ten reporting by Justin Rowlatt omits to say the words "due to burning of fossil fuels". Continued refusal of BBC to call out cause of climate change is why we wrote to editors pressgazette.co.uk/news/climate...

Climate scientists say news coverage ignores cause of UK heatwave

Connection between greenhouse emissions and extreme heat in UK 'indisputable'.

pressgazette.co.uk

Evening run spent contemplating how dry things are here. No rain recorded at Leuchars since 5 July.

Come for SVD, stay for the ENSO-conditioned global mean temperature forecasts agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Pleased to say that I've published my research from my previous role at MPI: We used a large ensemble decadal prediction system and found evidence of atmospheric circulation skill relating to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, although model deficiencies that limit skill persist:

Predictability of European summer climate: the influence of competing mechanisms related to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Abstract. Skilful predictions of European summer climate are increasingly relevant due to an increasing probability of temperature extremes, but prediction skill beyond the forced trend has so far pro...

esd.copernicus.org

Summer 2026 in England/Wales: very warm, very dry (so far, warmer than 1976; not as dry). To be continued.... Interactive chart here: richsdixon.github.io/weather/cet_...

Extremely amplified Atlantic Ridge regime present, with a possible Greenland High/negative NAO-type pattern by the end of the month. More at simonleewx.com.

Academic out of office auto-replies can be categorised into: “I’m supposedly on holiday, but if the mobile data at the beach works and your email is interesting, I might reply.” or “Where I’m going, there is no Internet. I won’t even have Internet for fun. No one will be able to contact me.”

“England’s green and pleasant land” becoming “England’s brown and scorched land” — effects of a long-lived heatwave and little rainfall on vegetation in England evident in these images from NOAA-20 today (left) and 18 July 2024 (right) during closer to average conditions.

Ah, bugger. But we’ve come a long way since the Iceland defeat 10 years ago.

Observations continue to show unprecedented changes in the UK’s climate. Recent decades have been warmer, wetter and sunnier than the 20th Century. 📖 Read the latest analysis on the State of the UK Climate: https://bit.ly/4wyWuzw @rmets.org @metoffice.gov.uk @noc.ac.uk #climatechange

Our shiny new Gill WindMaster sonic anemometer is moving closer to its initial deployment! 👀 😀 (not pictured: having oodles of fun creating various breezes/turbulence just to see what it looks like at 10 Hz)