@johnauthers.bsky.social
@johnauthers.bsky.social: "stock market’s relationship to war and peace can be troublesome. Just look at Dow in 1938 and 1939, as an ever-more belligerent Hitler brought Europe sliding ever further into war. The impact on Wall Street wasn’t totally predictable" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
‘Just as globalization was a key factor in the multi-decade declining trend in bond yields that followed Paul Volcker’s war on inflation, so raising the drawbridges has now triggered a steady rising trend.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
John Authers on the latest US tariff news: “this time, nobody seemed to notice. Having dominated the agenda last year, this episode of the trade war elicited minimal market reaction.” #economy #markets #trade #rariffs @johnauthers.bsky.social
A closed Hormuz is bad. Bab el-Mandeb could be worse, says @johnauthers.bsky.social 🎥
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist An Englishman Goes Existential on Data and Football Why looking backwards needs to figure more into steadying expectations. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
An Englishman Goes Existential on Data and Football
Why looking backwards needs to figure more into steadying expectations.
bloomberg.com
Even after sharp rises on Wedn, bond market breakevens continue to be lower than they were then, while #inflation #swaps are back to their prewar levels — despite continuing much higher #oil prices, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
‘At the outset of his last year as chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan had a warning. “History cautions,” he told Congress in 2005, “that people experiencing long periods of relative stability are prone to excess.”’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
Greenspan Deflated One Bubble — His Own Authority
No central banker will ever again enjoy the same aura of invincibility.
bloomberg.com
‘Investment bubbles sow the seeds of their own destruction if they attract more capital than they can productively use, and starve other areas that need it. That point might be approaching.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
In Hindsight, Will a Coming Crash Seem Obvious?
The template for 2008 holds up after a midyear check on our imaginary hedge fund.
bloomberg.com
‘Bitcoin’s highly speculative nature has often made it an early gauge of changing liquidity conditions, with broader risk assets following its lead.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social, Columnist What If Vanguard's Va-Va-VOOm Follows Magellan? The first trillion-dollar ETF brings excitement, but looming IPOs are unsettling passive funds. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
What If Vanguard's Va-Va-VOOm Follows Magellan?
The first trillion-dollar ETF brings excitement, but looming IPOs are unsettling passive funds.
bloomberg.com
Hope this chat on Wall Street Week about Keir Starmer's problems and the gilts market is of interest: www.youtube.com/watch?v=WyBi...
Why Britain’s Bond Market Is Sounding the Alarm
YouTube video by Bloomberg Television
youtube.com
"Nicholas Colas of DataTrek Research argues that the “strike price” for the Trump Put is “some way from where we are".” @opinion.bloomberg.com @johnauthers.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Why the Market Isn’t Working as Trump's Guardrail
Lack of volatility is taking off pressure to reach a Strait of Hormuz deal.
bloomberg.com
#eurozone #ECB The markets seem to be saying that 3x rate #hikes aren't necessary; one will suffice to it risks: weakening already soft industrial activity, worsening credit conditions, and deepening recessionary tendencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
‘Over history, whenever earnings have risen like this, they have always brought interest rates up with them. It will be hard to avoid a bear market if the Fed hikes rates.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social @ianrharnett.bsky.social
Free to Read/ Gift Link Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
Bond Market Fright May End Cheap Funds Era
What’s the same, and different, between now and the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
bloomberg.com
‘Since Liberation Day, buying quality stocks has been a one-way ticket to losses.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social
BARCLAYS: “.. Last week, long bonds broke. Not in one country. In all of them. Simultaneously. Four countries. Four different political systems. Four different central banks. But the same trade — ‘get me out of duration!’” (via @johnauthers.bsky.social)
As far as markets are concerned, the US is winning the Blockade of Hormuz: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
Why Markets Think the US Is Winning the Blockade
Europe, on the other hand...
bloomberg.com
Any discussion of #Fed #cutting rates this year is moot. #futures markets no longer expect it, while the rate-sensitive 2y UST yield has surged with rate expectations, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
#investors now seem to assume that all those #semiconductors can be put to work making #software business models obsolete, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social Columnist Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But... At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
Hate to Suggest Partying Like It's 1999, But...
At the risk of overstating, the similarities are getting too big to ignore.
bloomberg.com
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist The TACO That Ate Market Strategy Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... @opinion.bloomberg.com
The TACO That Ate Market Strategy
Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend.
bloomberg.com
The TACO trade keeps working (because T keeping COing...) www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
The TACO That Ate Market Strategy
Why ‘buy the dip’ is Trump Always Chickens Out’s best friend.
bloomberg.com
Gift Link / Free to Read Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
It Doesn’t Matter What Kevin Warsh Has to Say
The Powell case and future economic challenges are out of the Fed nominee’s hands.
bloomberg.com
‘Demand for US assets from foreigners has fallen.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @johnauthers.bsky.social
Please may I ask a favor. A video we made last year on the absurdity of the Liberation Day tariffs has been nominated for a Webby. Voting closes Thursday. Please vote for it! Thank you. vote.webbyawards.com/PublicVoting...
Vote for the best of the internet
I just voted in The Webby People's Voice Awards and checked my voter registration.
vote.webbyawards.com
Opinion Newsletter | @johnauthers.bsky.social , Columnist If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... via @opinion.bloomberg.com
If Only the Profanity Meant an End Was in Sight
Markets have a lot to weigh up, but optimism took a bruising over Easter weekend.
bloomberg.com
