‘The idea that there’s too much of everything, particularly capital, should not be lightly dismissed. Indeed, it’s possible to cast all the world’s current economic troubles, which are causing such discontent, as the result of a surplus.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

What If the Problem Is Too Much Capital?

It needs to go somewhere, from imperial adventures to AI.

bloomberg.com

‘The last two spikes in inflation expectations can be attributed to policy own-goals by the administration; this one looks like the Fed’s fault.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Brazil's election has provided quite a shock. The Real is on course for its worst day against the dollar since 1992...

very good read from @johnauthers.bsky.social on this: in my view markets are pricing geo-political risk. Tails are big: Le Pen or Melenchon is "pas normal". And beg to differ with Authers on one point. Le Pen has a way worse resume than Meloni www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

A French Accident Waiting to Happen

By certain numbers, France’s finances don’t look so bad. In euro-zone reality, there’s no room to maneuver.

bloomberg.com

Matt Peterson@mattpeterson.bsky.social · last wk.

Signs of contagion in Europe. France is getting it worst, but bond spreads against Germany are widening in Italy, Belgium, Greece, and Spain.

Is there an AI bubble? Of course there is, says @johnauthers.bsky.social 🎥

While inflation numbers might not be disastrous, they’re still disappointing and moving in the wrong direction. @johnauthers.bsky.social explains where this leaves the US 🎥

The 10-year Treasury yield has hit its highest level since 2002. Normally, a move of this magnitude would spell trouble for stocks. So why are equities holding up? @johnauthers.bsky.social explains 🎥

‘With the exception of a few months at the top of the oil price spike in 2008, and in the brief spasm that followed Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the ISM Services prices paid reading is the strongest since the series began in 1997.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Join @johnauthers.bsky.social, @timobrien.bsky.social, @nirkaissar.bsky.social, Allison Schrager, @ronbrownstein.bsky.social and @sarahgc.bsky.social on Oct. 21 for a live conversation about the forces shaping America. If you're a bloomberg.com subscriber, register here: bit.ly/4rwTcet

‘The latest widening took French spreads above their level from the eve of the July 2012 speech by the then-president of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, in which he promised to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Excellent from @johnauthers.bsky.social and Richard Abbey this morning on the AI-capex debt and rates dynamics that matter for *everything* right now>> The Fed’s hiking cycle could prove a red-flag moment for AI. via @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘As of Sept. 14, six groups (Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Oracle, SpaceX and Microsoft) accounted for 8.4% of the overall spread risk in the US investment-grade corporate bond market. That’s more than the six largest banks.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Add supply chains only as strong as their weakest part to a deglobalizing trend in which countries aim for self-sufficiency and exploit any chokepoints at their disposal, and shocks become a feature, not a bug.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The O-Ring Risk to the Global Economy

Waking up to the threat of the weakest link causing one disaster after another.

bloomberg.com

‘Once the Fed embarks on tightening, it generally continues for a while and yields continue to rise generally by more than a percentage point. Judging by history, we should brace for the 10-year yield to reach 6% before the Fed is done.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

This is how #yen has performed on a real (taking into account that #Japanese inflation has been the lowest in the world, which would normally mean the currency should strengthen) effective basis against a broad basket of currencies, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social #Bloomberg

@johnauthers.bsky.social on Bessent goading markets against. A lot can go wrong from this. www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Bessent Dares Bond Traders to Burn Down the House

And oil is back above $100, with diesel at an all-time high.

bloomberg.com

@svaneksmith.bsky.social x @johnauthers.bsky.social talking bond rout is back for a sequel !!!!! Thank you!! this is as good as the first one!!!

Why the Bond Market Has Everyone On Edge | Big Take

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts

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‘The mania to find the most profitable investments has collided with over-hyped claims and backlash around attempts to identify good companies. That creates opportunities for those who can keep their heads.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

The Many Signs of Madness in Markets

Human imperfection guarantees that investor efficiency will remain a hypothesis.

bloomberg.com

Warsh appears to have boxed himself into a rate hike this week: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

Warsh Talked Himself Into a Rates Trap

The need to show improvement on inflation proves too high a bar.

bloomberg.com

This one is a @svaneksmith.bsky.social and @johnauthers.bsky.social Bloomberg Big Take on the Bessent Twist, which is very good. I think these two should collaborate more often!!

What’s Behind the Bond Market Rollercoaster | Big Take

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts

youtube.com

‘Fiscal dominance is here. More maneuvers like this will likely weaken the dollar further, and increase the pressure on a central bank whose independence is currently in question.‘ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Bessent’s Bond-Burner Wasn’t the Big Move He Hoped

Drastic changes in fiscal policy are needed, not signaling and symbols.

bloomberg.com

Here's our latest on the bond selloff (plus Brazil and India): www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

The 30-Year Itch Comes for Bonds — and Brazil

In both cases, investors have cause for concern.

bloomberg.com

‘Spreads revealed mounting strain long before newspapers declared a financial panic in 1873. They are performing much the same function today.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

‘Odysseus thought many times that he was about to return home, only for his hopes to be dashed. And in the same way, it’s far too soon to declare an end to the AI boom — or to the hubris that has come with it.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

Situational Hubris Catches a Hedge Fund Unawares

You don’t need to go back to the Greeks to understand this implosion, but it helps.

bloomberg.com

@johnauthers.bsky.social: "stock market’s relationship to war and peace can be troublesome. Just look at Dow in 1938 and 1939, as an ever-more belligerent Hitler brought Europe sliding ever further into war. The impact on Wall Street wasn’t totally predictable" www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

‘Just as globalization was a key factor in the multi-decade declining trend in bond yields that followed Paul Volcker’s war on inflation, so raising the drawbridges has now triggered a steady rising trend.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news... by @johnauthers.bsky.social

John Authers on the latest US tariff news: “this time, nobody seemed to notice. Having dominated the agenda last year, this episode of the trade war elicited minimal market reaction.” #economy #markets #trade #rariffs @johnauthers.bsky.social

A closed Hormuz is bad. Bab el-Mandeb could be worse, says @johnauthers.bsky.social 🎥