Jonas Nahm

@jonasnahm.com

Associate Professor at Hopkins/SAIS. Former White House industrial strategy economist. Industrial policy, trade, climate, economic security. Views my own. DC | HNL. 🏳️‍🌈

1/ Von der Leyen just offered Canada "associate membership" in the EU in her State of the Union address. Carney was in the chamber. Standing ovation. Perhaps the clearest sign yet that some countries are actively trying to build a new architecture for global trade.

1/ The FCC added robots to its Covered List. New foreign humanoids, quadrupeds, even vacuums and mowers now need US assembly and 65% domestic content by value to sell here. That threshold rises to 75% in 2029.

1/ On July 28 the FCC added advanced robotic devices and power inverters to its Covered List, the roster of equipment judged an unacceptable national security risk. New models can no longer get the FCC authorization required to be sold in the US.

1/ The NEIS Center has been publishing on industrial strategy for a year now. My own take on where the research has landed: some questions we've made real progress on, some assumptions that shifted, and some genuinely new questions. neiscenter.substack.com/p/green-indu...

Green Industrial Strategy: What a Year Has Taught Us

The NEIS Center's Jonas Nahm reflects on how our research has enhanced our understanding of industrial strategy, and what's to come.

neiscenter.substack.com

16. CEA alum @jonasnahm.com and @danieldrisc.com turn to the question of America's growth model - and how different clean production strategies can lean into it, or may need to tilt against it. They call for an honest reckoning with the trade-offs of either. rooseveltinstitute.org/publications...

Decarbonize America’s Growth Model

How the U.S. growth model shapes climate and industrial policy, and why balancing domestic manufacturing with consumer demand is key to decarbonization.

rooseveltinstitute.org

1/ Beijing just put out a white paper defending itself against overcapacity charges. It's worth reading — not because it settles the debate, but because it shows how much work that one phrase has been doing for the West, and how differently we should be treating its parts.

1/ Last Friday Trump replaced the expired IEEPA-based tariffs with new 10-12.5% tariffs on 60 countries — this time under Section 301, citing failure to police forced labor in supply chains.

The greedflation critique of 2020-23 is fine on its own terms, I just don't think it tells us much about what's happening now.

Benjamin Braun@benbraun.social · 3mo ago

Exceptionally illuminating @adamtooze.bsky.social today. The chart, from a 2025 @somoamsterdam.bsky.social report, says it all: European carmakers went on a sellers' inflation binge at the worst possible moment (i.e., the moment Chinese competitors geared up to lower prices and take market share).

1/ Trump signed 50% tariffs on Canada today under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. Worth walking through the legal mechanics, the USMCA leverage play behind it, and what it costs.

1/ The USMCA — nearly $2 trillion in annual North American trade — hits its renewal deadline July 1. US-Mexico talks only started in May, with a third round scheduled for July 20. A decision by July 1 is not happening.

1/ The USMCA — nearly $2 trillion in annual North American trade — hits its renewal deadline July 1. US-Mexico talks only started in May, with a third round scheduled for July 20. A decision by July 1 is not happening.

Seeing the inversion at work in energy/transportation is enormously motivating for me, as someone looking at built environment, industry, ag, etc. Things like regen ag halving fertilizer cost are showing that it will happen across the board. Not as fast as I'd have liked, but it's happening.

1/ The purpose of green industrial policy has inverted. It used to pay for a public good: clean energy that cost more, benefiting everyone. Now it captures advantages a country keeps for itself. That shift, from a shared cost to a prize seized, is the story of the transition.

1/ China's May trade data just complicated the story Washington tells itself about decoupling. Exports to the US jumped 35% — the fastest pace in five years — led by the inputs feeding America's own AI build-out.