Rodrigo Orihuela
@rorihuela.bsky.social
Bloomberg bureau chief @ Madrid. Patagónico.
Gotta watch the Argentine market tomorrow. FX (ARS/USD) to be let to roam free in the 1,000 to 1,400 range. Test of tests.
Not entirely usual 30-year US bond yields rose the most since 1982. Equities fell. The dollar fell. Gold hit a record high. This is not, perhaps, entirely usual. www.ubs.com/global/en/we... #EconSky
Not entirely usual
US President Trump’s administration clarified the 125% tax on imports from China was 145%. This increase will not shift demand patterns (it will cost US consumers more money). For investors, this rais...
ubs.com
From a client presentation hosted by JPM analyst Michael Cemblast and quoted by BBG “ People are being held accountable for their views and the things they say in ways that they probably shouldn’t be. So I’ve said most of what I wanted to say on this call-but not all of it.”
A quick note on Trump's new tariff plan. It's 10 percent across the board, 125 percent (!) on China. What's the effective tariff rate? Well, China was 13 percent of imports in 2024, so you might say .13*125+.87*10 = 24.95. But imports from China will fall, so how do we adjust it? 1/
Two ironies from yesterday for a country like Vietnam, which has a 90-day reprieve from a 46% rate, down to 10%. It has been under US pressure over diversion of Chinese goods via Vietnam. But (mutatis mutandis) 125% on China, 10% on Vietnam might raise the incentive even more.
5. Recession risks are still with us. According to prediction markets the chances of a 2025 recession fell from 68% this morning to 53% this afternoon. That's a big risk.
4. During this pause, the United States will still have the highest tariffs in the industrialized world, perhaps 10-20 times that of most of our trading partners, and roughly ten times higher than it was before. These are still at or above the Depression era Smoot-Hawley tariffs
3. The rationale for this policy keeps changing. Remember when it was all about bringing manufacturing home? (That was yesterday.) Now it's negotiating deals. Those are fundamentally in tension. (I'm only going to build a factory in the US if tariffs are likely to persist.)
Biggest mistakes I'm seeing in early reporting (thread): 1. Tariffmageddon isn't over: Lotsa tariffs to account for, but the average tariff rate is only down around one quarter. So most of the pain of Liberation Day is still with us.
Reporter: “How much of this decision was driven by the bond market cratering overnight?” Bessent: “This was driven by the president’s strategy.”
This entire thread makes for a fascinating read on the market going green at the open
Ivan the K ™@ivanthek.bsky.social · last yr.Does anyone have any proof that Reuters preceded "Walter Bloomberg" in publishing this headline? I think this is pretty important in light of the popularity of that Xitter account.
“The narrative is moving from US exceptionalism to US alienation,” said Kok Hoong Wong, head of institutional equities sales trading at Maybank Securities in Singapore. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs
Donald Trump’s shake-up of the global trading system is hurting US assets more than those in many of the big economies he has just slapped with additional tariffs.
bloomberg.com
Congratulations to @mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social, the Methuselah of markets. Frankly it was borderline cruelty to keep him working so long beyond the natural lifespan of most humans. I’m glad he’ll now have time to enjoy his beloved Tottenham Hotspurs more often. www.gam.com/en/news-arti...
GAM and Gramercy enter into Strategic Partnership for Emerging Market Debt Strategies
We are one of the world’s leading independent, pure-play asset managers.
gam.com
European defense sector, by % return today. Column 4 is a 9 day RSI showing how overbought most names are. Column 6 is % return ytd, we've come a long way in larger caps. the key takeaway here is that UK Small/Mid Caps are where the catch up trade is: ( #SRP.L,#CHG.L,#MSI.L,#AVON.L,#CHRT.L,#QQ.L)
European reporting: ABB: new buyback, strong order book ROCHE: in-line, mid single digit growth outlook SANOFI: in-line, launches €5bn buyback NOKIA: beat on sales & operating profit ST MICRO: in-line sales, margin misses, demand sluggish for industrial & automotive semis BBVA: beat & €1bn buyback
Fascinating thread. Then go to the Wikipedia page. Then down the rabbit hole. The stuff we don't know, or understand, and learn about the things we use.
George Pearkes@peark.es · 2y agothey really, really can't. this is something that is not properly understood about atproto. It's totally portable! In theory, I could host a Bluesky clone myself!
Real Madrid. Floorentino Pérez says it's worth 10b euros and he wants to hand over ownership over to club members (aka season ticket holding fans). Wonder what that switch from being a season ticket holder to being a shareholder will look like for people's income tax come year's end.
Late to the starter pack game, but here's a handy list of all the writers and wranglers of Bloomberg Opinion who are up on BlueSky @opinion.bsky.social go.bsky.app/87cfrJ3
Igual os interesa un starter pack de periodistas de elDiario.es que ya están por aquí. go.bsky.app/9mKpczs
Santander wants to play big in US investment banking. Some numbers : 1) No. of material risk takers earnings >€1m more than 2x in three years 2) 110 leveraged loan deals in the US in 2024 vs 21 in 2023 3) IB staff in the US was 900 in 2023, 1,300 this year. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Botin’s Costly Credit Suisse Hiring Spree Is Reshaping Santander
Banco Santander's biggest push yet to expand on Wall Street is starting to lift revenue and transform the retail lender
bloomberg.com
The Milei-Trump relationship may be one to watch. Milei has built a bro-ship of sorts with Elon, and he is now also naming a successful tech entrepreneur as ambassador to DC. And this:
I don’t think most people (present company excluded) fully appreciate how much X had changed journalistic output, and in turn wider public discourse. And I don’t so much only mean the last two years as the whole decade-plus it has existed.
If you asked 20 years ago who winners of digital shift would be, I think most people would have opted for tabloids. Instead you have FT, WSJ, NYT with highest ever circulations and tabloids basically dying
@mpaulmcnamara.bsky.social @peark.es Hello. Opened this ages ago when it was mostly tumbleweeds, keep hearing more people say "over there" so now wonder if you lads have any good recommendations on accounts to follow.....