Opinião com base no estudo do @mfariacastro.bsky.social. As "contas certas" são uma falácia castradora da evolução do país e da criação de riqueza. É conversa mole de quem não tem uma visão estratégica, alimentado pelo lastro de meio século de ditadura.
Miguel Faria e Castro
@mfariacastro.bsky.social
Economist. Açoriano 🇵🇹🇺🇸. Views are my own. https://www.fariaecastro.net
You may not like it, but this is what peak localization looks like (Asterix: Mega Madness (PS1, 2001))
Siempre viene bien echar un ojo a Portugal: Inversión pública y stock de capital público
1/7 Motivado por algumas discussoes e emails, decidi escrever uma nota tecnica sobre o declinio do investimento publico em Portugal e consequente erosao do stock de capital publico. Explico a metodologia e analiso algumas implicacoes macroeconomicas
1/7 Motivado por algumas discussoes e emails, decidi escrever uma nota tecnica sobre o declinio do investimento publico em Portugal e consequente erosao do stock de capital publico. Explico a metodologia e analiso algumas implicacoes macroeconomicas
The St. Louis Fed is looking to recruit research economists with experience in monetary and fiscal policy modeling. Please apply if you work on these topics, or share with your network if you know of someone who does. Must be authorized to work in the US. rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS/job/St-L...
Economist - Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Company Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is seeking research economists. The Division enjoys a strong international reputation (Economic...
rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com
1/ new paper w/ Pascal Paul and Juan Sanchez: Stabilization vs. Growth When firms in distress are saved, the economy may become more stable in the short run, at the cost of long-run growth. We study this trade-off in a model w/ fluctuations, endogenous growth, and heterog. firms
1/ New with Serdar Ozkan: using the St. Louis Fed DSGE model, we ask whether expectations of future AI-driven productivity gains can raise inflation today. We argue that they can, and that the Fed's response matters a lot. www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
Can AI Optimism Raise Inflation? What a Standard Macro Model Says
This analysis finds optimism about future AI‑driven productivity can quickly lift output and inflation, and the outcome depends on the monetary policy response.
stlouisfed.org
St. Louis public libraries ahead of the curve, teaching children how to use Bloomberg terminals
Inflation regimes systematically affect the sign and size of public debt forecast errors - our latest On the Economy blog post www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
Inflation and the Accuracy of Public Debt Forecasts
An analysis of public debt projections by the CBO examines how forecasting divergences can differ in a high-inflation versus a low-inflation environment.
stlouisfed.org
Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026
19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - pej2026 - Universidade de Aveiro
July 3-5, 2026
ua.pt
Please submit to this conference to help make it a great one! I will be there, together with Stéphane Bonhomme and Michèle Tertilt. 19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - Aveiro, 3-5 July 2026 Deadline: 15 March 2026 Website: lnkd.in/d6Dmdfx7
Small thing and took some time to get going, but seeing this made my day: one of my requests is now a Bill Proposal at the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/c...
stlouis-mo.gov
Another day in the collapse of the post-Cold War global order. I'll pour some bourbon and watch Ben-Hur.
This is a US government official calling for any US citizens who dissent from his immigration policy preferences, and "get in the way" of federal officers, to be executed by being shot in the face. By "get in the way" he means: being present, unarmed, dissenting, & driving away, without attacking.
Rep. Randy Fine: "It's time for Americans to say 'enough,' and if you get in the way of the government repelling a foreign invasion, you're gonna end up just like that lady did yesterday."
Lamento muito que a família do @mfariacastro.bsky.social também esteja a passar por isto. É vergonhoso que Portugal demore mais de 1 ano a reconhecer a cidadania de filhos bebés de portugueses nascidos no estrangeiro expresso.pt/sociedade/20...
Atrasos do IRN deixam bebés de emigrantes sem pátria
Emigrantes aguardam mais de um ano para registar os filhos como portugueses. Durante a espera, não têm país nem documentos
expresso.pt
US retirement normalization following the COVID-19 pandemic via St. Louis Fed www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...
U.S. Retirement Normalization following the COVID-19 Pandemic
After surging when the COVID-19 pandemic began in the U.S., retirements have returned to their prepandemic trend. New research examines what caused this surge.
stlouisfed.org
New WP: "The Cost of Capital and Misallocation in the United States", with Julian Kozlowski and Jeremy Majerovitz 1/n
Ontem, na Antena 1, sobre o impacto das tarifas: www.rtp.pt/play/p1467/e...
Programa da Tarde
Bolsas: terceiro dia consecutivo em queda - 'Não se estava a contar que a política norte-americana fosse tão agressiva e generalizada a todos os pa
rtp.pt
When a stock's prices moves a lot, the NYSE halts trading in that stock for 30 minutes. On Monday March 17 (just tried an arbitrary Monday), there were 30 such circuit breakers triggered. Today, so far, 229! Feel liberated! www.nyse.com/trade-halt
Trading Halt DataNYSE LogoNYSE LogoNYSE Logo
nyse.com
Acho que ainda vou a tempo de me retratar de muito do que disse aqui ha quase exactamente 2 meses. Na altura supus que a aplicacao das tarifas seria muito mais "cirurgica": contida e racional. Penso que muitos outros supuseram o mesmo, a julgar pelas reaccao dos mercados.
Na Radio Observador a explicar as novas tarifas observador.pt/programas/a-...
Ao falar com malta portuguesa sobre política americana, choca-me que ainda haja quem veja os republicanos como uma coisa ali entre o PSD e o CDS quando faz já *uma década* (desde 2016) que são um Chega com laivos de PNR
This is the dumbest thing I read this week and trust me I read a lot of dumb things this week nationalpost.com/news/mark-ca...
What is the best outlet for a short paper that used to be a section of a longer paper (=same model and data), that makes a very clear point, but that got removed because it was not central to the original paper? Economics Letters? #econtwitter