How expectations shape labor market decisions: Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics by Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...
rfberlin.com
Mariacristina De Nardi
@mdenardi.bsky.social
Thomas Sargent Professor of Economics at the University of Minnesota and consultant at the Minneapolis Fed. Views are my own. RT ≠ E. Web page: https://users.nber.org/~denardim/
Showing how to identify models of earnings and employment dynamics from subjective expectations data, from Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo www.nber.org/papers/w35027
How much of measured earnings risk is really individual-level productivity risk, and how much reflects sorting, job transitions, and heterogeneity? We show that subjective expectations data help separate these forces.
Human Capital HCEO - CEHD@hceconomics.bsky.social · 4mo agoNew from HCEO members Orazio Attanasio, @mdenardi.bsky.social, and colleagues: www.nber.org/papers/w35027
Over our lives, we face many risks and choices. Read new working paper from @mdenardi.bsky.social, @johanatch.bsky.social, Borella, & Yang for a life-cycle model w/ single and married individuals jointly choosing labor supply and savings from labor market entry until death https://bit.ly/4anebZ5
Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026
19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - pej2026 - Universidade de Aveiro
July 3-5, 2026
ua.pt
Mariacristina De Nardi@mdenardi.bsky.social · 8mo agoPlease submit to this conference to help make it a great one! I will be there, together with Stéphane Bonhomme and Michèle Tertilt. 19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - Aveiro, 3-5 July 2026 Deadline: 15 March 2026 Website: lnkd.in/d6Dmdfx7
Over our lives, we face many risks and choices. Read new working paper from @mdenardi.bsky.social, @johanatch.bsky.social, Borella, & Yang for a life-cycle model w/ single and married individuals jointly choosing labor supply and savings from labor market entry until death . https://bit.ly/4anebZ5
In new paper, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, Fang Yang, and @johanatch.bsky.social use a life-cycle model with family structure, labor supply responses, and late-life risks to show bequest motives and medical expense risk are important drivers of aggregate wealth https://bit.ly/4anebZ5
General equilibrium behind the window. Strategic interaction on the windowsill. The chickens are the recurring protagonists of my Intermediate Micro class. The Grinch dropped by for yesterday’s lecture.
Morning photo from my office at the University of Minnesota this morning. Outside temperature -22 degrees Celsius. Time: 6:35 am.
Please submit to this conference to help make it a great one! I will be there, together with Stéphane Bonhomme and Michèle Tertilt. 19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - Aveiro, 3-5 July 2026 Deadline: 15 March 2026 Website: lnkd.in/d6Dmdfx7
📍Back from a busy week at the #Fed’s #OIGI in #Minneapolis. Productive time interacting w/ coauthors & researchers + v engaged seminar on workforce in large-scale home visiting. Many thanks to Abigail Wozniak for the invite & to @mdenardi.bsky.social for hosting - had a great time! 🙏
How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Mariacristina De Nardi@mdenardi.bsky.social · 9mo agoI have a truly fantastic Econ PhD job market candidate on the market this year: Francisco Bullano is a macroeconomist whose research bridges public economics and health. His Web page: franciscobullano.com Please look at his job market package very closely.
I have a truly fantastic Econ PhD job market candidate on the market this year: Francisco Bullano is a macroeconomist whose research bridges public economics and health. His Web page: franciscobullano.com Please look at his job market package very closely.
Francisco Bullano
Francisco Bullano is a PhD Candidate in Economics at University of Minnesota
franciscobullano.com
#EctJ published its Sept 2025 issue, with @mdenardi.bsky.social's 2024 Sargan Lecture on "Health inequality and health types", Chen Qiu's "Cross-fitted empirical likelihood on semiparametric models" as Editors' Choice of lead article, and 6 more fine contributions academic.oup.com/ectj/issue/2...
Volume 28 Issue 3 | The Econometrics Journal | Oxford Academic
Established in 1998 by the Royal Economic Society, The Econometrics Journal promotes the general advancement and application of econometric methods and techniques to problems of relevance to contempor...
academic.oup.com
Household saving & labour supply are shaped by various risks throughout the lifespan. M Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social @fang-yang-econ.bsky.social & @johanatch.bsky.social analyse how these risks interact to better design policy that protects households from shocks. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky
🇬🇧A month in London-a great time to reflect & recharge. B4 things ramp up again, a quick recap of May–June 1️⃣ @cesifo.org Area Conference Labor Economics 2️⃣ @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social Applied Workshops 3️⃣ @rfberlin.bsky.social Workshop Economics of Aging 4️⃣ Workshop Economics of Risky Behavior
I am grateful to Ed for his mentorship and to SAET for inviting me to give this lecture.
Thank you, Christian — to both you and Jerome Adda — for a fantastic conference and the honor of being a plenary speaker alongside Joseph Hotz. The event was both productive and enjoyable, and your Berlin initiative is truly inspiring!
ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin@rfberlin.bsky.social · last yr.We conclude our Workshop on Aging with warm thanks from our Director, Christian Dustmann, to all participants for their excellent presentations and contributions. #EconomicsOfAging
We are kicking off the RFBerlin Workshop on the Economics of Aging with @mdenardi.bsky.social’s keynote lecture on “Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender”.
Exploring why households work and save. Bequest motives and risks in wages, medical expenses, and marital dynamics explain 56.9 percent of aggregate wealth and 2.7 percent of aggregate earnings, from Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, Yang, and Torres Chain https://www.nber.org/papers/w33874
HCEO member @gabriconti.bsky.social's paper on how the impact of an early childhood intervention differs with educational attainment polygenic score is now out in @NBER working papers. www.nber.org/papers/w33781
Gene x Environment Interactions: Polygenic Scores and the Impact of an Early Childhood Intervention in Colombia
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
nber.org
I learned a lot from this conference and it was fun too!
Essen Health Conference@eshconference.bsky.social · last yr.The highlight of any academic conference is learning from our esteemed keynote speakers. This year, we're thrilled to welcome Farzana Afridi (#ISIDelhi) and Mariacristina De Nardi (@mdenardi.bsky.social), sharing insights on health, development, and environmental economics. Summary 🧵coming soon!
www.clinicbarcelona.org/en/news/colo...
Colonoscopy and faecal occult blood tests are equivalent in detecting colorectal cancer
Researchers at IDIBAPS-Hospital Clínic and Hospital Universitario de Canarias have coordinated a study involving 57,000 people that compares the effectiveness of the two main strategies for screening ...
clinicbarcelona.org
What a great visit and seminar feedback! Thank you very much for inviting me!
Carlos Rondón-Moreno@charlieecon.bsky.social · last yr.Looking forward to today’s seminar by @mdenardi.bsky.social on “Savings and Labor Supply Over the Life Cycle” at the Central Bank of Chile. Live transmission available, don’t miss it! 🚨 #econSky @umn-econ.bsky.social
Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics on.ft.com/43Tejhn
The White House war on federal statistics
Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups
on.ft.com