New @resolutionfoundation.org substack - what does abolishing the gas standing charge mean for household energy bills? resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/what-does-...

What does the abolition of the gas standing charge mean for households?

Jonathan Marshall digs into the distributional impact of an overlooked bill change from the October 2026 Budget

resolutionfoundation.substack.com

LOOK the next two years. This is truly terrible.

Alex Clegg@alexclegg.bsky.social · 4d ago

Any expected growth in the median non-pensioner income this Parliament has already happened. Median incomes grew 5% between 2023-24 and 2026-27, but are projected to fall by 3% from this year to 2028-29, leaving total growth this Parliament at just 1.8%

Happy Budget day to all who observe! Make sure you're following @resolutionfoundation.org, where I'll be live posting my thoughts and questions on the Budget. Not long now... ⏰

This sounds like a very welcome boost to the national wealth fund and British business bank. The NWF esp is small relative to the infrastructure investment we used to have access to via the EU. Discussed in www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications... . www.ft.com/content/4111...

John Healey to give £20bn boost to UK’s business lender and infrastructure bank

Treasury predicts extra funding will create and support 100,000 jobs as chancellor seeks to exploit flexibility in government’s fiscal rules

ft.com

For his final edition of Top of the charts, @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social takes a closer look at what's happening to pay inequality in the UK. After a decade of decline, overall earnings inequality has ticked up across the board. Read why ➡️ buff.ly/adYUmWW

This morning's inflation data is a reminder of the further cost of living pressure to come for many families. The uprating of most working age benefits is based on September's inflation number, providing some relief from next April. But not for private renters.

We have got a meal's worth of analysis and events on the labour market this week.

Of course the Budget will be scorecard positive in 29-30! The forecast has deteriorated and this is the target year. This is hardly the same as measures (especially some temporary cost of living measures) being fully funded. www.ft.com/content/08b9...

A more generous Warm Home Discount makes sense for this winter – energy bills are spiking and the WHD is well established so can deliver help quickly. But it should only be a stopgap to better energy bill support www.theguardian.com/money/2026/o...

Chancellor plans major intervention to help poorer UK households with rising energy bills

Exclusive: Officials working on further radical changes that would change how much energy companies could charge customers

theguardian.com

How much do the triple lock changes save? Could be nothing, could be tens of billions is not normally a good answer to a question. But here I try to explain why it is the honest one. Moving off a policy with such volatility was essential either way. resolutionfoundation.substack.com/p/why-nobody...

Why nobody knows how much we’ll save from the triple lock announcement

Ruth Curtice and Parth Pandya consider the uncountable savings from the PM’s new policy

resolutionfoundation.substack.com

The triple lock announcement today is essentially a shift to a long-run link to earnings. But with a minimum of inflation or 2.5% in any given year. Most importantly that removes the permanent ratchet above earnings.

Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · last mo.

The triple lock on the State Pension will be 'adjusted' from April 2030. What might that mean for the value of the State Pension? In this chart we show how the State Pension would have increased under various uprating measures, including the 'smoothed' triple lock announced by the PM today.

The triple lock on the State Pension will be 'adjusted' from April 2030. What might that mean for the value of the State Pension? In this chart we show how the State Pension would have increased under various uprating measures, including the 'smoothed' triple lock announced by the PM today.

Important analysis out today re new productivity data. UK workers still less productive than French ones, but this gap didn't emerge post financial crisis. Hours worked more important than we realised for boosting UK growth. &OBR no longer look optimistic relative to post financial crisis trends.

Simon Pittaway@simonpittaway.bsky.social · last mo.

@hannahslaughter.bsky.social and I have just published our take on the ONS's new productivity estimates. They don't change the unavoidable reality of UK economic stagnation, but they do challenge the consensus on its causes. A short summary ⤵️

Quite apart from the substance here the headline is so silly. The Chancellor decides how much to borrow and the bond market determines how much he will pay for it. It's not up to the Treasury to decide what's allowed! www.ft.com/content/5dec... via @FT

Treasury open to smaller fiscal headroom to reduce UK tax hikes

Investors signal Budget buffer could fall from the £23.6bn forecast to around £14bn without spooking gilt market

ft.com

Some tough news for John Healey this morning: August borrowing came in at £18.3bn – that’s up from £15.4bn a year ago and the second highest August on record. This shows why the Chancellor faces a tricky balancing act ahead for the Budget. Short thread…🧵

CPI inflation jumps back up to 3.1% in August from 2.9% in July. This was in line with market expectations but above the BoE forecast (from July). The worse news is that with rising oil and gas prices there is more of this to come... Short thread to follow.

DWP has just published a flurry of new data on how PIP and UC-Health assessments are carried out (face-to-face or via phone, video or paper) and whether this impacts who gets awarded health-related benefits. Five takeaways 🧵

Rumours Healey will lean into greater use of public financial institutions as a way to boost investment. Affectionately known as PuFins this raises a question: which was the better leaving gift for Elliott Christensen - a Chancellor listening to his report or a resolution foundation cuddly puffin?

Refreshing to see a business group come out and support specific cuts, not just ask for goodies. And of course I agree that moving off the triple lock in exchange for better support for young people would be right trade to make - www.britishchambers.org.uk/wp-content/u...

Not to wish your weekend away, but admit it, you're bloody excited about getting your hands on one of these on Tuesday, aren't you? H/T @resolutionfoundation.org @ruthcurtice.bsky.social

Autumn Budget 2026 has just been announced for 28 October so it’s time to get technical about living standards. The two main measures of household income, RHDI and HBAI, can tell very different stories. The new @resolutionfoundation.org spotlight I’ve just published explains why. 🧵⤵️

Today Burnham announced the return of the £2 bus fare cap, a much loved policy of previous Governments that was raised to £3 by Reeves two years ago. But who will benefit? [THREAD]

Ahead of Reeves delivering what most people assume will be her final Mansion House speech we’ve been looking at the data on how the economic picture has changed over the past two years. What is Reeves’ legacy?

Huge congratulations to Silvana and what a great appointment for the IMF. Having worked closely with Silvana as an @resolutionfoundation.org associate it is clear that she will be amazing in this job. Sad to see her exit the UK policy debate - but our loss is the world economy's gain! 👏👏👏

Reuters@reuters.com · 4mo ago

IMF appoints Silvana Tenreyro as chief economist, head of research reut.rs/4yb4AQ8

Some of the headroom estimates in this article look a touch optimistic to me. But we're all guessing at this point. One thing we can be sure of is that the Treasury's briefing to a new PM will not start "things are much better than people think actually". www.ft.com/content/c4ce...

Lots on and missed this. Patrick is right that the government should hurry up and appoint a National Statistician as @hetanshah.bsky.social has said. But we must stop criticising the ONS for old mistakes, or for being honest about new ones, to help it turn around. www.ft.com/content/fe04...

The ONS: an Outrage of National Significance

The UK statistics agency plays a vital role but has been beset by errors and poor leadership

ft.com

Important analysis of today's announcement and its implications from Zachary.

Zachary Leather@zackleather.resolutionfoundation.org · 4mo ago

Do the dizzying array of big numbers in the new Defence Investment Plan stack up? Unfortunately this isn’t a simple question 🧵 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Good to see Andy Burnham place the stagnant living standards of the last twenty years at the heart of his economic agenda today. But what are the chances of growth in every postcode, and what would it take to get there? A thread…

Lots of jobs changing at the moment - but let's focus on the most important. I am recruiting for a new partner in crime. Take a look, and get in touch if you want to help us deliver higher living standards across the UK, with an incredible team. www.resolutionfoundation.org/director/

With Andy Burnhnam looking ever more likely to be the next PM, what tough decisions lie ahead for him? Turns out the new trade-offs look a lot like the old trade-offs. @ruthcurtice.bsky.social breaks down the challenges – from living standards to public services – in 5 charts ⬇️ buff.ly/vTEZMib

Dear Andy • Resolution Foundation

Morning all, I don’t know why major international football tournaments provoke upheaval on Downing Street, but there’s definitely a pattern emerging. So, we’ve got a special edition for you, laying…

resolutionfoundation.org